Week 7 NFL picks

Locked before the week's first kickoff · graded against final scores by code

For entertainment only. This is a public record of what eight AI models predict, not betting advice. The bankroll is play money: no real bets are placed, the prices are a median across books, and nothing on this site links to a sportsbook. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Week 7 so far

14 of 14 games final.
Best this week: DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813, 9–5. The consensus pick is 8–6; always picking the home team is 5–9; the market favourite is 9–5.
33 bets, $327 staked in total.

Against the grain

Every pick that went against the rest of the panel. The moneyline is in the prompt, so most picks restate the market; these are where a model claimed to know something the market does not. The edge is the model's own probability minus the market's, margin removed — what it asserted, not our forecast.

Claude Opus 5 — NE over CHI, 53% · market 41%, edge +12 pts · alone against 7 · bet $8 NE +135 (−$8.00)Maye's Patriots have beaten Buffalo and blown out Las Vegas; getting plus money against an inconsistent Bears team.
DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 — SEA over KC, 55% · market 57%, edge −2 pts · 2 against 6SEA home and 6-1, but KC undefeated makes it close.
Qwen3.8 Max — SEA over KC, 54% · market 57%, edge −3 pts · 2 against 6 · bet $12 KC +124 (−$12.00)SEA's home edge is slight, but KC at +124 with Mahomes offers clear value on the underdog.

Game by game

Each model's pick and how sure it was, and its bet if it made one · green won, red lost · outlined against the panel

Game	Final	Consensus	DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813	Qwen3.8 Max	Grok 4.6	Gemini 3.1 Pro	Kimi K3	Muse Spark 1.2	GPT-5.6 Sol	Claude Opus 5
NE @ CHI	NE 24–30 CHI	CHI 7/8	CHI 62% $5 CHI -158	CHI 58%	CHI 58%	CHI 60%	CHI 58%	CHI 57%	CHI 52% $3 NE +135	NE 53% $8 NE +135
DEN @ ARI	DEN 30–16 ARI	DEN 8/8	DEN 70% $10 DEN -220	DEN 68%	DEN 66%	DEN 65%	DEN 68%	DEN 62%	DEN 61%	DEN 68%
SF @ ATL	SF 20–29 ATL	SF 8/8	SF 68% $25 SF -148	SF 66% $8 SF -148	SF 62%	SF 65% $10 SF -148	SF 62%	SF 64% $10 SF -148	SF 64% $5 SF -148	SF 62% $6 SF -148
CIN @ BAL	CIN 35–13 BAL	BAL 8/8	BAL 55% $5 BAL -120	BAL 56%	BAL 54%	BAL 55%	BAL 55%	BAL 56%	BAL 56%	BAL 54%
TB @ CAR	TB 37–13 CAR	CAR 8/8	CAR 66% $20 CAR -170	CAR 67%	CAR 63%	CAR 62%	CAR 64% $6 CAR -170	CAR 64%	CAR 64%	CAR 63%
GB @ DET	GB 17–20 DET	DET 8/8	DET 66% $10 DET -180	DET 66%	DET 60%	DET 63%	DET 63%	DET 63%	DET 61%	DET 59%
NYG @ HOU	NYG 27–21 HOU	HOU 8/8	HOU 80%	HOU 83%	HOU 76%	HOU 80%	HOU 80%	HOU 82%	HOU 77%	HOU 83%
LAR @ LV	LAR 35–21 LV	LAR 8/8	LAR 65%	LAR 62%	LAR 64%	LAR 65%	LAR 60%	LAR 66%	LAR 62% $2 LV +177	LAR 63%
IND @ MIN	IND 10–16 MIN	MIN 8/8	MIN 76% $10 MIN -285	MIN 80%	MIN 72%	MIN 72% $10 MIN -285	MIN 74%	MIN 74%	MIN 74%	MIN 75%
PIT @ NO	PIT 16–10 NO	PIT 8/8	PIT 66% $10 PIT -180	PIT 65%	PIT 65%	PIT 64% $10 PIT -180	PIT 64%	PIT 66% $6 PIT -180	PIT 66%	PIT 62%
MIA @ NYJ	MIA 28–25 NYJ	NYJ 8/8	NYJ 72% $15 NYJ -225	NYJ 74%	NYJ 69%	NYJ 68%	NYJ 71% $8 NYJ -225	NYJ 70%	NYJ 71%	NYJ 71%
KC @ SEA	KC 3–20 SEA	KC 6/8	SEA 55%	SEA 54% $12 KC +124	KC 55% $10 KC +124	KC 55% $10 KC +124	KC 52% $12 KC +124	KC 55% $14 KC +124	KC 56% $12 KC +124	KC 55% $10 KC +124
CLE @ TEN	CLE 27–24 TEN	CLE 8/8	CLE 58% $10 CLE -130	CLE 60%	CLE 57%	CLE 58% $10 CLE -130	CLE 56%	CLE 57%	CLE 58%	CLE 56%
DAL @ PHI	DAL 38–21 PHI	DAL 8/8	DAL 70% $15 DAL -210	DAL 73% $10 DAL -210	DAL 67%	DAL 65%	DAL 67%	DAL 67%	DAL 68%	DAL 64%
Record	Home team 5–9	8–6	9–5	9–5	8–6	8–6	8–6	8–6	8–6	7–7

Model by model

Every pick with the reason the model gave for it

DeepSeek V4 Pro 08139–5Brier 0.248staked $135 of $157.16 · −$27.83

Most sure of MIN over IND, and calling SF over ATL as a solid favorite.

All 14 picks, with reasons

CHI 62% NE @ CHI · bet $5 CHI -158 (+$3.16)CHI home, better point differential, NE lost to JAX badly.
DEN 70% DEN @ ARI · bet $10 DEN -220 (+$4.55)DEN better defense and record, ARI inconsistent despite last week's win.
SF 68% SF @ ATL · bet $25 SF -148 (−$25.00)SF 5-1 with strong offense, ATL 2-4 and lost to CHI.
BAL 55% CIN @ BAL · bet $5 BAL -120 (−$5.00)BAL home and better point differential, but Lamar questionable makes it close.
CAR 66% TB @ CAR · bet $20 CAR -170 (−$20.00)CAR home, TB has many injuries including Mayfield questionable.
DET 66% GB @ DET · bet $10 DET -180 (+$5.56)DET home, GB Love questionable and missing receivers.
HOU 80% NYG @ HOUHOU big favorite at home, better QB, NYG lost to NO.
LAR 65% LAR @ LVLAR better overall, but LV at home and Bowers questionable.
MIN 76% IND @ MIN · bet $10 MIN -285 (+$3.51)MIN undefeated with elite defense, IND lost to TEN.
PIT 66% PIT @ NO · bet $10 PIT -180 (+$5.56)PIT 4-2, NO 2-4, Rodgers vs Shough advantage.
NYJ 72% MIA @ NYJ · bet $15 NYJ -225 (−$15.00)MIA winless and injured, NYJ home with Geno Smith.
SEA 55% KC @ SEASEA home and 6-1, but KC undefeated makes it close.
CLE 58% CLE @ TEN · bet $10 CLE -130 (+$7.69)CLE 4-2 and beat BAL, TEN 1-5 despite last week's win.
DAL 70% DAL @ PHI · bet $15 DAL -210 (+$7.14)PHI missing Hurts, DAL better QB and desperate for win.

Team page →

Raw response

{
  "headline": "Most sure of MIN over IND, and calling SF over ATL as a solid favorite.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "NE@CHI",
      "pick": "CHI",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": "CHI",
      "stake": 5,
      "reason": "CHI home, better point differential, NE lost to JAX badly."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DEN@ARI",
      "pick": "DEN",
      "win_prob": 0.70,
      "bet_team": "DEN",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "DEN better defense and record, ARI inconsistent despite last week's win."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "SF@ATL",
      "pick": "SF",
      "win_prob": 0.68,
      "bet_team": "SF",
      "stake": 25,
      "reason": "SF 5-1 with strong offense, ATL 2-4 and lost to CHI."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CIN@BAL",
      "pick": "BAL",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": "BAL",
      "stake": 5,
      "reason": "BAL home and better point differential, but Lamar questionable makes it close."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "TB@CAR",
      "pick": "CAR",
      "win_prob": 0.66,
      "bet_team": "CAR",
      "stake": 20,
      "reason": "CAR home, TB has many injuries including Mayfield questionable."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "GB@DET",
      "pick": "DET",
      "win_prob": 0.66,
      "bet_team": "DET",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "DET home, GB Love questionable and missing receivers."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYG@HOU",
      "pick": "HOU",
      "win_prob": 0.80,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "HOU big favorite at home, better QB, NYG lost to NO."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LAR@LV",
      "pick": "LAR",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "LAR better overall, but LV at home and Bowers questionable."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "IND@MIN",
      "pick": "MIN",
      "win_prob": 0.76,
      "bet_team": "MIN",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "MIN undefeated with elite defense, IND lost to TEN."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "PIT@NO",
      "pick": "PIT",
      "win_prob": 0.66,
      "bet_team": "PIT",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "PIT 4-2, NO 2-4, Rodgers vs Shough advantage."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "MIA@NYJ",
      "pick": "NYJ",
      "win_prob": 0.72,
      "bet_team": "NYJ",
      "stake": 15,
      "reason": "MIA winless and injured, NYJ home with Geno Smith."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "KC@SEA",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "SEA home and 6-1, but KC undefeated makes it close."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CLE@TEN",
      "pick": "CLE",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": "CLE",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "CLE 4-2 and beat BAL, TEN 1-5 despite last week's win."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DAL@PHI",
      "pick": "DAL",
      "win_prob": 0.70,
      "bet_team": "DAL",
      "stake": 15,
      "reason": "PHI missing Hurts, DAL better QB and desperate for win."
    }
  ]
}

Qwen3.8 Max9–5Brier 0.256staked $30 of $95.41 · −$15.24

Betting KC at +124 against Seattle — a 5-0 Mahomes team getting plus money is the best value on the board.

All 14 picks, with reasons

CHI 58% NE @ CHICHI's home-field edge and Caleb Williams' development give them a slight edge over a streaking NE team.
DEN 68% DEN @ ARIDEN has won two straight and is the more complete team against a struggling Arizona defense.
SF 66% SF @ ATL · bet $8 SF -148 (−$8.00)SF's 5-1 record and superior roster outclass 2-4 Atlanta, even without Deebo Samuel.
BAL 56% CIN @ BALLamar Jackson's questionable ankle status caps BAL's edge over Burrow's Bengals in this divisional matchup.
CAR 67% TB @ CARCAR's 3-2 form and home field dominate a 1-5 TB team with Baker Mayfield questionable.
DET 66% GB @ DETDET's explosive offense at home outweighs GB, whose QB and top WRs are all questionable.
HOU 83% NYG @ HOUHOU's two-game win streak and home field against a NYG team that just lost to NO.
LAR 62% LAR @ LVStafford and the Rams' offense edge out LV despite losing Adams, as LV's defense is leaky.
MIN 80% IND @ MINMinnesota's 5-0 start and elite defense (58 points allowed) overwhelm 2-4 Indianapolis.
PIT 65% PIT @ NOPIT's 4-2 record and Rodgers' experience outclass a 2-4 NO team with a rookie QB.
NYJ 74% MIA @ NYJMIA is 0-5 and outscored by 62; NYJ at home should handle them comfortably.
SEA 54% KC @ SEA · bet $12 KC +124 (−$12.00)SEA's home edge is slight, but KC at +124 with Mahomes offers clear value on the underdog.
CLE 60% CLE @ TENCLE's 4-2 record and defense are better than TEN's 1-5, despite TEN's recent upset win.
DAL 73% DAL @ PHI · bet $10 DAL -210 (+$4.76)Jalen Hurts on IR with Tanner McKee starting makes DAL's Dak Prescott a clear advantage.

Team page →

Raw response

{
  "headline": "Betting KC at +124 against Seattle — a 5-0 Mahomes team getting plus money is the best value on the board.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "NE@CHI",
      "pick": "CHI",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "CHI's home-field edge and Caleb Williams' development give them a slight edge over a streaking NE team."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DEN@ARI",
      "pick": "DEN",
      "win_prob": 0.68,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "DEN has won two straight and is the more complete team against a struggling Arizona defense."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "SF@ATL",
      "pick": "SF",
      "win_prob": 0.66,
      "bet_team": "SF",
      "stake": 8,
      "reason": "SF's 5-1 record and superior roster outclass 2-4 Atlanta, even without Deebo Samuel."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CIN@BAL",
      "pick": "BAL",
      "win_prob": 0.56,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Lamar Jackson's questionable ankle status caps BAL's edge over Burrow's Bengals in this divisional matchup."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "TB@CAR",
      "pick": "CAR",
      "win_prob": 0.67,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "CAR's 3-2 form and home field dominate a 1-5 TB team with Baker Mayfield questionable."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "GB@DET",
      "pick": "DET",
      "win_prob": 0.66,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "DET's explosive offense at home outweighs GB, whose QB and top WRs are all questionable."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYG@HOU",
      "pick": "HOU",
      "win_prob": 0.83,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "HOU's two-game win streak and home field against a NYG team that just lost to NO."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LAR@LV",
      "pick": "LAR",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Stafford and the Rams' offense edge out LV despite losing Adams, as LV's defense is leaky."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "IND@MIN",
      "pick": "MIN",
      "win_prob": 0.80,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Minnesota's 5-0 start and elite defense (58 points allowed) overwhelm 2-4 Indianapolis."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "PIT@NO",
      "pick": "PIT",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "PIT's 4-2 record and Rodgers' experience outclass a 2-4 NO team with a rookie QB."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "MIA@NYJ",
      "pick": "NYJ",
      "win_prob": 0.74,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "MIA is 0-5 and outscored by 62; NYJ at home should handle them comfortably."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "KC@SEA",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.54,
      "bet_team": "KC",
      "stake": 12,
      "reason": "SEA's home edge is slight, but KC at +124 with Mahomes offers clear value on the underdog."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CLE@TEN",
      "pick": "CLE",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "CLE's 4-2 record and defense are better than TEN's 1-5, despite TEN's recent upset win."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DAL@PHI",
      "pick": "DAL",
      "win_prob": 0.73,
      "bet_team": "DAL",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "Jalen Hurts on IR with Tanner McKee starting makes DAL's Dak Prescott a clear advantage."
    }
  ]
}

Grok 4.68–6Brier 0.250staked $10 of $87.94 · −$10.00

Undefeated Chiefs as road underdogs in Seattle is the clearest value pick.

All 14 picks, with reasons

CHI 58% NE @ CHIHome Bears match New England's 4-2 record with a better point differential and Caleb Williams.
DEN 66% DEN @ ARIBroncos have won two straight, including Seattle, while Arizona starts Brissett at 2-4.
SF 62% SF @ ATLSan Francisco is 5-1 with Purdy; Atlanta is 2-4 and lost its last two at home.
BAL 54% CIN @ BALLamar Jackson is projected to start at home in a tight AFC North matchup.
CAR 63% TB @ CARCarolina is 3-2 at home; Tampa Bay is 1-5 with Mayfield and skill players questionable.
DET 60% GB @ DETDetroit at home against Packers listing Love plus two wideouts as questionable.
HOU 76% NYG @ HOUTexans are massive home favorites; Giants start McCarthy with Dart on injured reserve.
LAR 64% LAR @ LVStafford's Rams catch Las Vegas after three straight Raiders losses with Cousins.
MIN 72% IND @ MINMinnesota is 5-0 and has allowed 58 points; Indianapolis is 2-4 on the road.
PIT 65% PIT @ NOSteelers are 4-2 with Rodgers; Saints start Shough and list Kamara as questionable.
NYJ 69% MIA @ NYJWinless Miami starts Malik Willis without Achane against Geno Smith at home.
KC 55% KC @ SEA · bet $10 KC +124 (−$10.00)Undefeated Chiefs have allowed 83 points and get Mahomes as a road dog in Seattle.
CLE 57% CLE @ TENCleveland is 4-2 after beating Baltimore; Tennessee is 1-5 even after last week's win.
DAL 67% DAL @ PHIJalen Hurts is on IR so Tanner McKee starts; Dallas is a deserved road favorite.

Team page →

Raw response

{
  "headline": "Undefeated Chiefs as road underdogs in Seattle is the clearest value pick.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "NE@CHI",
      "pick": "CHI",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Home Bears match New England's 4-2 record with a better point differential and Caleb Williams."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DEN@ARI",
      "pick": "DEN",
      "win_prob": 0.66,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Broncos have won two straight, including Seattle, while Arizona starts Brissett at 2-4."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "SF@ATL",
      "pick": "SF",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "San Francisco is 5-1 with Purdy; Atlanta is 2-4 and lost its last two at home."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CIN@BAL",
      "pick": "BAL",
      "win_prob": 0.54,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Lamar Jackson is projected to start at home in a tight AFC North matchup."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "TB@CAR",
      "pick": "CAR",
      "win_prob": 0.63,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Carolina is 3-2 at home; Tampa Bay is 1-5 with Mayfield and skill players questionable."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "GB@DET",
      "pick": "DET",
      "win_prob": 0.6,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Detroit at home against Packers listing Love plus two wideouts as questionable."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYG@HOU",
      "pick": "HOU",
      "win_prob": 0.76,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Texans are massive home favorites; Giants start McCarthy with Dart on injured reserve."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LAR@LV",
      "pick": "LAR",
      "win_prob": 0.64,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Stafford's Rams catch Las Vegas after three straight Raiders losses with Cousins."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "IND@MIN",
      "pick": "MIN",
      "win_prob": 0.72,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Minnesota is 5-0 and has allowed 58 points; Indianapolis is 2-4 on the road."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "PIT@NO",
      "pick": "PIT",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Steelers are 4-2 with Rodgers; Saints start Shough and list Kamara as questionable."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "MIA@NYJ",
      "pick": "NYJ",
      "win_prob": 0.69,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Winless Miami starts Malik Willis without Achane against Geno Smith at home."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "KC@SEA",
      "pick": "KC",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": "KC",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "Undefeated Chiefs have allowed 83 points and get Mahomes as a road dog in Seattle."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CLE@TEN",
      "pick": "CLE",
      "win_prob": 0.57,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Cleveland is 4-2 after beating Baltimore; Tennessee is 1-5 even after last week's win."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DAL@PHI",
      "pick": "DAL",
      "win_prob": 0.67,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Jalen Hurts is on IR so Tanner McKee starts; Dallas is a deserved road favorite."
    }
  ]
}

Gemini 3.1 Pro8–6Brier 0.255staked $50 of $99.40 · −$3.24

Patrick Mahomes and the undefeated Chiefs offer great value as road underdogs in Seattle.

All 14 picks, with reasons

CHI 60% NE @ CHICaleb Williams and the Bears' offense have been clicking, giving them the edge at home over the Patriots.
DEN 65% DEN @ ARIDenver's defense should stifle Jacoby Brissett and the struggling Cardinals offense.
SF 65% SF @ ATL · bet $10 SF -148 (−$10.00)The 5-1 49ers boast a dominant point differential and should easily handle the Falcons.
BAL 55% CIN @ BALLamar Jackson and the Ravens have the offensive firepower to outlast Joe Burrow's Bengals at home.
CAR 62% TB @ CARBryce Young has the Panthers playing well, while the Buccaneers are reeling at 1-5.
DET 63% GB @ DETDetroit's explosive offense at home will be too much for a Packers team with a banged-up Jordan Love.
HOU 80% NYG @ HOUC.J. Stroud and the Texans are massive favorites to bounce back against J.J. McCarthy's Giants.
LAR 65% LAR @ LVMatthew Stafford and the Rams should exploit a Raiders defense that just gave up 33 points.
MIN 72% IND @ MIN · bet $10 MIN -285 (+$3.51)The undefeated Vikings feature an elite defense that will overwhelm Daniel Jones and the Colts.
PIT 64% PIT @ NO · bet $10 PIT -180 (+$5.56)Aaron Rodgers and the 4-2 Steelers are a safe bet against rookie Tyler Shough and the Saints.
NYJ 68% MIA @ NYJThe winless Dolphins are starting Malik Willis, making Geno Smith and the Jets a confident pick.
KC 55% KC @ SEA · bet $10 KC +124 (−$10.00)Getting Patrick Mahomes and the undefeated Chiefs at plus money is too good to pass up.
CLE 58% CLE @ TEN · bet $10 CLE -130 (+$7.69)Deshaun Watson's Browns have a clear advantage over a 1-5 Titans team starting Cam Ward.
DAL 65% DAL @ PHIWith Jalen Hurts on IR, Tanner McKee and the Eagles will struggle to keep pace with Dak Prescott.

Team page →

Raw response

```json
{
  "headline": "Patrick Mahomes and the undefeated Chiefs offer great value as road underdogs in Seattle.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "NE@CHI",
      "pick": "CHI",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Caleb Williams and the Bears' offense have been clicking, giving them the edge at home over the Patriots."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DEN@ARI",
      "pick": "DEN",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Denver's defense should stifle Jacoby Brissett and the struggling Cardinals offense."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "SF@ATL",
      "pick": "SF",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": "SF",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "The 5-1 49ers boast a dominant point differential and should easily handle the Falcons."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CIN@BAL",
      "pick": "BAL",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have the offensive firepower to outlast Joe Burrow's Bengals at home."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "TB@CAR",
      "pick": "CAR",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Bryce Young has the Panthers playing well, while the Buccaneers are reeling at 1-5."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "GB@DET",
      "pick": "DET",
      "win_prob": 0.63,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Detroit's explosive offense at home will be too much for a Packers team with a banged-up Jordan Love."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYG@HOU",
      "pick": "HOU",
      "win_prob": 0.80,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "C.J. Stroud and the Texans are massive favorites to bounce back against J.J. McCarthy's Giants."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LAR@LV",
      "pick": "LAR",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Matthew Stafford and the Rams should exploit a Raiders defense that just gave up 33 points."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "IND@MIN",
      "pick": "MIN",
      "win_prob": 0.72,
      "bet_team": "MIN",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "The undefeated Vikings feature an elite defense that will overwhelm Daniel Jones and the Colts."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "PIT@NO",
      "pick": "PIT",
      "win_prob": 0.64,
      "bet_team": "PIT",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "Aaron Rodgers and the 4-2 Steelers are a safe bet against rookie Tyler Shough and the Saints."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "MIA@NYJ",
      "pick": "NYJ",
      "win_prob": 0.68,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "The winless Dolphins are starting Malik Willis, making Geno Smith and the Jets a confident pick."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "KC@SEA",
      "pick": "KC",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": "KC",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "Getting Patrick Mahomes and the undefeated Chiefs at plus money is too good to pass up."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CLE@TEN",
      "pick": "CLE",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": "CLE",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "Deshaun Watson's Browns have a clear advantage over a 1-5 Titans team starting Cam Ward."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DAL@PHI",
      "pick": "DAL",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "With Jalen Hurts on IR, Tanner McKee and the Eagles will struggle to keep pace with Dak Prescott."
    }
  ]
}
```

Kimi K38–6Brier 0.256staked $26 of $77.54 · −$26.00

Kansas City stays unbeaten as a rare road underdog at Seattle, the best value on the board.

All 14 picks, with reasons

CHI 58% NE @ CHIBoth 4-2 and hot, but Chicago is home with Caleb Williams and the steadier defense.
DEN 68% DEN @ ARIDenver's defense and two-game win streak travel well against Brissett-led Arizona.
SF 62% SF @ ATLSan Francisco is 5-1 and deeper despite receiver injuries; Atlanta is inconsistent.
BAL 55% CIN @ BALLamar is projected to start and Baltimore at home edges Burrow's Bengals despite the ankle concern.
CAR 64% TB @ CAR · bet $6 CAR -170 (−$6.00)Tampa is 1-5 and decimated by injuries to Mayfield, Irving and Egbuka; Carolina has won two straight.
DET 63% GB @ DETJordan Love's back plus multiple Packer receiver injuries tilt this to Goff and Detroit at home.
HOU 80% NYG @ HOUGiants start McCarthy with Dart on IR; Houston has won two straight and is a heavy home favorite.
LAR 60% LAR @ LVStafford gives the Rams the edge even without Davante Adams, while Las Vegas has dropped three straight.
MIN 74% IND @ MINMinnesota is 5-0 with the league's best scoring defense; Daniel Jones on the road is overmatched.
PIT 64% PIT @ NOPittsburgh has won two straight behind Rodgers while New Orleans starts Shough with Kamara banged up.
NYJ 71% MIA @ NYJ · bet $8 NYJ -225 (−$8.00)Miami is 0-5, lost Achane to IR and starts Malik Willis; the Jets at home are the clear side.
KC 52% KC @ SEA · bet $12 KC +124 (−$12.00)Mahomes as a plus-money underdog with the better defense is rare value despite Seattle's strong home form.
CLE 56% CLE @ TENCleveland's defense just shut down Baltimore and faces rookie Cam Ward, though the Browns' receiver injuries cap confidence.
DAL 67% DAL @ PHIPhiladelphia has lost four straight, Hurts is on IR and McKee starts; Prescott gives Dallas the edge.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Kansas City stays unbeaten as a rare road underdog at Seattle, the best value on the board.","picks":[{"game_key":"NE@CHI","pick":"CHI","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Both 4-2 and hot, but Chicago is home with Caleb Williams and the steadier defense."},{"game_key":"DEN@ARI","pick":"DEN","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Denver's defense and two-game win streak travel well against Brissett-led Arizona."},{"game_key":"SF@ATL","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"San Francisco is 5-1 and deeper despite receiver injuries; Atlanta is inconsistent."},{"game_key":"CIN@BAL","pick":"BAL","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Lamar is projected to start and Baltimore at home edges Burrow's Bengals despite the ankle concern."},{"game_key":"TB@CAR","pick":"CAR","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":"CAR","stake":6,"reason":"Tampa is 1-5 and decimated by injuries to Mayfield, Irving and Egbuka; Carolina has won two straight."},{"game_key":"GB@DET","pick":"DET","win_prob":0.63,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Jordan Love's back plus multiple Packer receiver injuries tilt this to Goff and Detroit at home."},{"game_key":"NYG@HOU","pick":"HOU","win_prob":0.8,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Giants start McCarthy with Dart on IR; Houston has won two straight and is a heavy home favorite."},{"game_key":"LAR@LV","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.6,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Stafford gives the Rams the edge even without Davante Adams, while Las Vegas has dropped three straight."},{"game_key":"IND@MIN","pick":"MIN","win_prob":0.74,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Minnesota is 5-0 with the league's best scoring defense; Daniel Jones on the road is overmatched."},{"game_key":"PIT@NO","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Pittsburgh has won two straight behind Rodgers while New Orleans starts Shough with Kamara banged up."},{"game_key":"MIA@NYJ","pick":"NYJ","win_prob":0.71,"bet_team":"NYJ","stake":8,"reason":"Miami is 0-5, lost Achane to IR and starts Malik Willis; the Jets at home are the clear side."},{"game_key":"KC@SEA","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.52,"bet_team":"KC","stake":12,"reason":"Mahomes as a plus-money underdog with the better defense is rare value despite Seattle's strong home form."},{"game_key":"CLE@TEN","pick":"CLE","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Cleveland's defense just shut down Baltimore and faces rookie Cam Ward, though the Browns' receiver injuries cap confidence."},{"game_key":"DAL@PHI","pick":"DAL","win_prob":0.67,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Philadelphia has lost four straight, Hurts is on IR and McKee starts; Prescott gives Dallas the edge."}]}

Muse Spark 1.28–6Brier 0.261staked $30 of $110.42 · −$20.67

Undefeated Chiefs upset Seahawks in Seattle as market overvalues home field against Mahomes.

All 14 picks, with reasons

CHI 57% NE @ CHIBears' home defense and Williams' efficiency edge Maye in low-scoring matchup.
DEN 62% DEN @ ARIBroncos' pass rush overwhelms Brissett-led Cardinals despite Arizona's upset last week.
SF 64% SF @ ATL · bet $10 SF -148 (−$10.00)49ers' balanced offense and healthier roster outclass inconsistent Falcons at home.
BAL 56% CIN @ BALRavens' Lamar Jackson at home tips tight AFC North battle over Burrow.
CAR 64% TB @ CARPanthers' momentum and Buccaneers' injuries make Carolina clear home favorite.
DET 63% GB @ DETLions' explosive home offense exploits Packers' banged-up receiving corps and secondary.
HOU 82% NYG @ HOUTexans' Stroud faces third-string McCarthy; Houston's defense dominates at home.
LAR 66% LAR @ LVStafford's experience and Rams' front outmatch Cousins-led Raiders in desert.
MIN 74% IND @ MINUndefeated Vikings' elite defense smothers Daniel Jones on the road.
PIT 66% PIT @ NO · bet $6 PIT -180 (+$3.33)Rodgers' Steelers exploit rookie Shough and Saints' porous defense on road.
NYJ 70% MIA @ NYJJets' Geno Smith outduels third-string Willis as winless Dolphins collapse.
KC 55% KC @ SEA · bet $14 KC +124 (−$14.00)Undefeated Mahomes undervalued as road dog against Seahawks' inflated home price.
CLE 57% CLE @ TENBrowns' defense and Watson's steadiness edge rookie Ward's Titans at home.
DAL 67% DAL @ PHIPrescott faces backup McKee; Cowboys' offense capitalizes on Hurts absence.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Undefeated Chiefs upset Seahawks in Seattle as market overvalues home field against Mahomes.","picks":[{"game_key":"NE@CHI","pick":"CHI","win_prob":0.57,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Bears' home defense and Williams' efficiency edge Maye in low-scoring matchup."},{"game_key":"DEN@ARI","pick":"DEN","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Broncos' pass rush overwhelms Brissett-led Cardinals despite Arizona's upset last week."},{"game_key":"SF@ATL","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":"SF","stake":10,"reason":"49ers' balanced offense and healthier roster outclass inconsistent Falcons at home."},{"game_key":"CIN@BAL","pick":"BAL","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Ravens' Lamar Jackson at home tips tight AFC North battle over Burrow."},{"game_key":"TB@CAR","pick":"CAR","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Panthers' momentum and Buccaneers' injuries make Carolina clear home favorite."},{"game_key":"GB@DET","pick":"DET","win_prob":0.63,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Lions' explosive home offense exploits Packers' banged-up receiving corps and secondary."},{"game_key":"NYG@HOU","pick":"HOU","win_prob":0.82,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Texans' Stroud faces third-string McCarthy; Houston's defense dominates at home."},{"game_key":"LAR@LV","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.66,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Stafford's experience and Rams' front outmatch Cousins-led Raiders in desert."},{"game_key":"IND@MIN","pick":"MIN","win_prob":0.74,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Undefeated Vikings' elite defense smothers Daniel Jones on the road."},{"game_key":"PIT@NO","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.66,"bet_team":"PIT","stake":6,"reason":"Rodgers' Steelers exploit rookie Shough and Saints' porous defense on road."},{"game_key":"MIA@NYJ","pick":"NYJ","win_prob":0.7,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Jets' Geno Smith outduels third-string Willis as winless Dolphins collapse."},{"game_key":"KC@SEA","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":"KC","stake":14,"reason":"Undefeated Mahomes undervalued as road dog against Seahawks' inflated home price."},{"game_key":"CLE@TEN","pick":"CLE","win_prob":0.57,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Browns' defense and Watson's steadiness edge rookie Ward's Titans at home."},{"game_key":"DAL@PHI","pick":"DAL","win_prob":0.67,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Prescott faces backup McKee; Cowboys' offense capitalizes on Hurts absence."}]}

GPT-5.6 Sol8–6Brier 0.263staked $22 of $87.98 · −$22.00

Houston is my safest winner, while unbeaten Kansas City is the week's strongest underdog value in Seattle.

All 14 picks, with reasons

CHI 52% NE @ CHI · bet $3 NE +135 (−$3.00)Chicago's home field narrowly outweighs New England's three-game surge, though the underdog price makes the Patriots the value side.
DEN 61% DEN @ ARIDenver's improving defense faces an Arizona team with a minus-46 point differential and Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
SF 64% SF @ ATL · bet $5 SF -148 (−$5.00)San Francisco's plus-61 point differential and Brock Purdy overcome its depleted receiving corps against inconsistent Atlanta.
BAL 56% CIN @ BALBaltimore's stronger scoring margin and home field provide a narrow edge, assuming projected starter Lamar Jackson plays.
CAR 64% TB @ CARCarolina's wins over Detroit and Philadelphia outweigh Tampa Bay's 1-5 record and extensive offensive injury concerns.
DET 61% GB @ DETDetroit's home field and explosive offense get the edge over a Packers attack carrying multiple key questionable designations.
HOU 77% NYG @ HOUHouston's two-game offensive surge and C.J. Stroud should exploit a Giants team changing quarterbacks after Jaxson Dart's injury.
LAR 62% LAR @ LV · bet $2 LV +177 (−$2.00)Matthew Stafford gives Los Angeles the quarterback edge, but consecutive Rams losses and Davante Adams' absence keep it close.
MIN 74% IND @ MINMinnesota's unbeaten record and league-best scoring defense outweigh uncertainty around Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson.
PIT 66% PIT @ NOPittsburgh's balanced 4-2 form and quarterback advantage over Tyler Shough should travel against New Orleans' porous defense.
NYJ 71% MIA @ NYJMiami is winless, starts Malik Willis, and lacks De'Von Achane, leaving the Jets with the clearer path despite modest form.
KC 56% KC @ SEA · bet $12 KC +124 (−$12.00)Patrick Mahomes and a 5-0 record make Kansas City an attractive underdog against Seattle, even with key targets questionable.
CLE 58% CLE @ TENCleveland's four wins and recent shutdown of Baltimore outweigh Tennessee's lone victory and weak minus-45 scoring margin.
DAL 68% DAL @ PHIDak Prescott's quarterback advantage over Tanner McKee is decisive with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve, despite Dallas' poor record.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Houston is my safest winner, while unbeaten Kansas City is the week's strongest underdog value in Seattle.","picks":[{"game_key":"NE@CHI","pick":"CHI","win_prob":0.52,"bet_team":"NE","stake":3,"reason":"Chicago's home field narrowly outweighs New England's three-game surge, though the underdog price makes the Patriots the value side."},{"game_key":"DEN@ARI","pick":"DEN","win_prob":0.61,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Denver's improving defense faces an Arizona team with a minus-46 point differential and Jacoby Brissett at quarterback."},{"game_key":"SF@ATL","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":"SF","stake":5,"reason":"San Francisco's plus-61 point differential and Brock Purdy overcome its depleted receiving corps against inconsistent Atlanta."},{"game_key":"CIN@BAL","pick":"BAL","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Baltimore's stronger scoring margin and home field provide a narrow edge, assuming projected starter Lamar Jackson plays."},{"game_key":"TB@CAR","pick":"CAR","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Carolina's wins over Detroit and Philadelphia outweigh Tampa Bay's 1-5 record and extensive offensive injury concerns."},{"game_key":"GB@DET","pick":"DET","win_prob":0.61,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Detroit's home field and explosive offense get the edge over a Packers attack carrying multiple key questionable designations."},{"game_key":"NYG@HOU","pick":"HOU","win_prob":0.77,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Houston's two-game offensive surge and C.J. Stroud should exploit a Giants team changing quarterbacks after Jaxson Dart's injury."},{"game_key":"LAR@LV","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":"LV","stake":2,"reason":"Matthew Stafford gives Los Angeles the quarterback edge, but consecutive Rams losses and Davante Adams' absence keep it close."},{"game_key":"IND@MIN","pick":"MIN","win_prob":0.74,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Minnesota's unbeaten record and league-best scoring defense outweigh uncertainty around Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson."},{"game_key":"PIT@NO","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.66,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Pittsburgh's balanced 4-2 form and quarterback advantage over Tyler Shough should travel against New Orleans' porous defense."},{"game_key":"MIA@NYJ","pick":"NYJ","win_prob":0.71,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Miami is winless, starts Malik Willis, and lacks De'Von Achane, leaving the Jets with the clearer path despite modest form."},{"game_key":"KC@SEA","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":"KC","stake":12,"reason":"Patrick Mahomes and a 5-0 record make Kansas City an attractive underdog against Seattle, even with key targets questionable."},{"game_key":"CLE@TEN","pick":"CLE","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Cleveland's four wins and recent shutdown of Baltimore outweigh Tennessee's lone victory and weak minus-45 scoring margin."},{"game_key":"DAL@PHI","pick":"DAL","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Dak Prescott's quarterback advantage over Tanner McKee is decisive with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve, despite Dallas' poor record."}]}

Claude Opus 57–7Brier 0.270staked $24 of $103.27 · −$24.00

Kansas City is 5-0 with a +57 point differential and is somehow the underdog in Seattle — taking the Chiefs.

All 14 picks, with reasons

NE 53% NE @ CHI · bet $8 NE +135 (−$8.00)Maye's Patriots have beaten Buffalo and blown out Las Vegas; getting plus money against an inconsistent Bears team.
DEN 68% DEN @ ARIDenver's defense is the best unit on the field and Arizona's Brissett offense is thin.
SF 62% SF @ ATL · bet $6 SF -148 (−$6.00)49ers are 5-1 with the league's stingiest scoring defense; Atlanta has lost three of four.
BAL 54% CIN @ BALHome field and Lamar expected to play, though his ankle keeps this close to a coin flip.
CAR 63% TB @ CARCarolina is rolling after beating Philadelphia while Tampa is 1-5 with Mayfield's thumb and receivers banged up.
DET 59% GB @ DETDetroit at home against a Green Bay receiving corps that is almost entirely on the injury report.
HOU 83% NYG @ HOUDart is on IR and Houston has won two straight with Stroud finding rhythm.
LAR 63% LAR @ LVStafford still outclasses a Raiders team on a three-game slide with Bowers hobbled.
MIN 75% IND @ MINUndefeated Minnesota has allowed just 58 points; price too short to bet but clear pick.
PIT 62% PIT @ NOPittsburgh's defense and Rodgers against a Saints team allowing 178 points with Kamara hurting.
NYJ 71% MIA @ NYJWinless Miami starting Malik Willis without Achane has scored 70 points all season.
KC 55% KC @ SEA · bet $10 KC +124 (−$10.00)Undefeated Mahomes with the best point differential in the data as a live underdog is clear value.
CLE 56% CLE @ TENBrowns defense travels well, but Cleveland's backfield and receiver injuries cap confidence against improving Tennessee.
DAL 64% DAL @ PHIPhiladelphia is reeling with Hurts on IR and McKee under center; Dallas can score on anyone.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Kansas City is 5-0 with a +57 point differential and is somehow the underdog in Seattle — taking the Chiefs.","picks":[{"game_key":"NE@CHI","pick":"NE","win_prob":0.53,"bet_team":"NE","stake":8,"reason":"Maye's Patriots have beaten Buffalo and blown out Las Vegas; getting plus money against an inconsistent Bears team."},{"game_key":"DEN@ARI","pick":"DEN","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Denver's defense is the best unit on the field and Arizona's Brissett offense is thin."},{"game_key":"SF@ATL","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":"SF","stake":6,"reason":"49ers are 5-1 with the league's stingiest scoring defense; Atlanta has lost three of four."},{"game_key":"CIN@BAL","pick":"BAL","win_prob":0.54,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Home field and Lamar expected to play, though his ankle keeps this close to a coin flip."},{"game_key":"TB@CAR","pick":"CAR","win_prob":0.63,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Carolina is rolling after beating Philadelphia while Tampa is 1-5 with Mayfield's thumb and receivers banged up."},{"game_key":"GB@DET","pick":"DET","win_prob":0.59,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Detroit at home against a Green Bay receiving corps that is almost entirely on the injury report."},{"game_key":"NYG@HOU","pick":"HOU","win_prob":0.83,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Dart is on IR and Houston has won two straight with Stroud finding rhythm."},{"game_key":"LAR@LV","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.63,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Stafford still outclasses a Raiders team on a three-game slide with Bowers hobbled."},{"game_key":"IND@MIN","pick":"MIN","win_prob":0.75,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Undefeated Minnesota has allowed just 58 points; price too short to bet but clear pick."},{"game_key":"PIT@NO","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Pittsburgh's defense and Rodgers against a Saints team allowing 178 points with Kamara hurting."},{"game_key":"MIA@NYJ","pick":"NYJ","win_prob":0.71,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Winless Miami starting Malik Willis without Achane has scored 70 points all season."},{"game_key":"KC@SEA","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":"KC","stake":10,"reason":"Undefeated Mahomes with the best point differential in the data as a live underdog is clear value."},{"game_key":"CLE@TEN","pick":"CLE","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Browns defense travels well, but Cleveland's backfield and receiver injuries cap confidence against improving Tennessee."},{"game_key":"DAL@PHI","pick":"DAL","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Philadelphia is reeling with Hurts on IR and McKee under center; Dallas can score on anyone."}]}

What every model was sent

One DATA block, identical for all 8 · sha256 1cef57438c2fda41… · each model's own bankroll is stated after the block, outside the hash

System prompt

You are picking the winner of every NFL game this week, and managing a
bankroll of play money you can bet on those games.

This is a public prediction record, for entertainment. The money is not real
and you are not advising anyone to bet.

YOU MAY USE YOUR OWN FOOTBALL KNOWLEDGE: coaching, quarterback quality, roster
strength, home field, how these teams are built. But your knowledge stops
before this season started, and the DATA block does not:
- this_season has every result so far this season. Rosters, coaches and form
  may have changed since your training data. Where DATA disagrees with your
  memory, DATA wins.
- injuries is the current injury report for starters and key backups.
- projected_starting_qb is who is projected to start at quarterback THIS week.
- moneyline is the market price on each side to win the game, in American odds.
If your reasoning relies on a player, check he is not listed as out.

THE BANKROLL. Every competitor was given $100 when betting opened in week
4, and it has to last until the end of the NFL regular season. There
are no top-ups: what you lose is gone for the rest of the season, and what you win
you can bet again. The competitor holding the most money after the last regular-season
week wins this part. Your current balance, and how many weeks are left, are given
after the DATA block.
- A bet is on one team to win the game outright, at that team's moneyline.
  +150 means a $10 bet wins $15 profit. -150 means a $15 bet wins $10 profit.
  A losing bet loses the stake. A tie returns the stake.
- You may bet on either team — it does not have to be the team you pick — on
  any number of games, or on none. Stakes are whole dollars, and your stakes
  this week together may not exceed the amount available to you.
- The two sides' prices include the market's margin, so betting at random loses
  money over time.
- A game with a null moneyline cannot be bet on this week.

For EVERY game in games, return:
- pick: the team code (one of the two in that game) you expect to win.
- win_prob: your probability that your pick wins, from 0.5 to 1.
  0.5 is a coin flip. 0.75 means your pick wins three times in four. 0.95 is
  close to certain. These are scored all season with a Brier score — a
  confident miss costs far more than a cautious one — and published.
- bet_team: the team you are betting on, or null for no bet.
- stake: whole dollars on bet_team, or 0 for no bet.
- reason: one sentence, at most 25 words, naming what decided it.

Return only a single JSON object. No preamble, no markdown, no code fences.

Prompt with the DATA block

=== DATA ===
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It includes the bookmakers' margin. null means no price was available.","There is no weather and no point spread in this data set."]}
=== END DATA ===

YOUR BANKROLL: $103.27 available. Your stakes this week may total at most $103.
This is week 7. Betting runs through week 18, the last week of the regular season: 12 weeks including this one.

Pick the winner of all 14 games in week 7. Every game_key in games, exactly once.

Return exactly this JSON shape and nothing else (one entry in picks per game):
{
  "headline": "One sentence: the pick you are most sure of, or the upset you are calling.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "AWAY@HOME",
      "pick": "HOME",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "One sentence, 25 words max."
    }
  ]
}