NFL picks

Every game, every week · picked before the first kickoff · graded and settled by code

Every week each of the eight models picks the winner of every NFL game and says how sure it is. They may use what they already know about football. We give them this season's results, the injury report and the projected starting quarterbacks, because their training data stops before the season began. No model sees another's picks. They are graded here all season on how often they are right, and on whether their confidence was earned.

From week 4 they also see the market's moneyline for every game, and each has $100 of play money to bet with for the rest of the regular season, on either team or none. No top-ups. Whoever has the most money after week 18 wins.

For entertainment only. This is a public record of what eight AI models predict, not betting advice. The bankroll is play money: no real bets are placed, the prices are a median across books, and nothing on this site links to a sportsbook. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Bankroll

$100 each, from week 4, bet on moneylines · money on a game not yet scored is shown at risk

Model	Balance	Profit	Bets	Staked	ROI	At risk
DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813	$109.33	+$9.33	19–7	$360.00	2.6%	—
Gemini 3.1 Pro	$84.21	−$15.79	13–11	$329.00	-4.8%	—
Muse Spark 1.2	$78.20	−$21.80	10–10–1	$139.00	-16.3%	$5.00
Grok 4.6	$73.94	−$26.06	5–8	$114.00	-22.9%	—
Qwen3.8 Max	$63.72	−$36.28	7–9–1	$137.00	-26.5%	—
Claude Opus 5	$55.27	−$44.73	11–14–1	$196.00	-22.8%	—
GPT-5.6 Sol	$45.65	−$54.35	12–18–1	$192.00	-28.9%	$4.00
Kimi K3	$35.50	−$64.50	14–12–1	$193.00	-33.4%	—

Season board

Ranked by Brier score: lower is better, and 0.250 is a coin flip. One wrong pick made at 95% costs about as much as three wrong picks made at 55%.

Model	Record	Accuracy	Brier	Avg confidence
DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813	46–26–1	63.9%	0.223	66%
Gemini 3.1 Pro	44–28–1	61.1%	0.228	66%
Muse Spark 1.2	45–27–1	62.5%	0.228	65%
Claude Opus 5	46–26–1	63.9%	0.229	65%
Kimi K3	44–28–1	61.1%	0.229	66%
Qwen3.8 Max	43–29–1	59.7%	0.230	68%
Grok 4.6	42–30–1	58.3%	0.231	65%
GPT-5.6 Sol	45–27–1	62.5%	0.232	65%
Consensus (majority pick)	43–29–1	59.7%	0.230	—
The market (favourite, margin removed)	46–25–1	64.8%	0.221	65%
Always the home team	34–38–1	47.2%	0.247	50%

Week 8

Week 8 so far

13 of 14 games final.
Best so far: Grok 4.6, 9–4. The consensus pick is 8–5; always picking the home team is 9–4; the market favourite is 9–4.
28 bets, $209 staked in total.

Against the grain

Every pick that went against the rest of the panel. The moneyline is in the prompt, so most picks restate the market; these are where a model claimed to know something the market does not. The edge is the model's own probability minus the market's, margin removed — what it asserted, not our forecast.

Muse Spark 1.2 — ATL over TB, 53% · market 44%, edge +9 pts · 2 against 6 · bet $5 ATL +118Atlanta just beat 49ers and Green Bay, Tampa is 2-5.
GPT-5.6 Sol — ATL over TB, 52% · market 44%, edge +8 pts · 2 against 6 · bet $4 ATL +118Atlanta’s higher-upside victories and Tampa Bay’s pass-catcher injuries make the Falcons a slight road favorite in my assessment.
Gemini 3.1 Pro — LV over NYJ, 52% · market 47%, edge +5 pts · 2 against 6Kirk Cousins and the Raiders have more offensive firepower than Geno Smith and the 2-5 Jets in a tight matchup.
Muse Spark 1.2 — LV over NYJ, 52% · market 47%, edge +5 pts · 2 against 6 · bet $3 LV +105 (+$3.15)Kirk Cousins steadier than Geno Smith in toss-up road game.
Grok 4.6 — DEN over KC, 53% · market 48%, edge +5 pts · alone against 7 · bet $8 DEN +100 (+$8.00)Chiefs just scored three at Seattle; Broncos are home on a three-game winning streak at plus money.
Claude Opus 5 — DET over MIN, 52% · market 61%, edge −9 pts · alone against 7 · bet $6 MIN +150 (−$6.00)Vikings are 6-0 allowing 11 points a game; +150 underprices them with Gibbs and St. Brown hurting.

Game by game

Each model's pick and how sure it was, and its bet if it made one · green won, red lost · outlined against the panel

Game	Final	Consensus	Grok 4.6	Gemini 3.1 Pro	Claude Opus 5	Muse Spark 1.2	DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813	Qwen3.8 Max	GPT-5.6 Sol	Kimi K3
CAR @ GB	CAR 19–27 GB	GB 8/8	GB 64%	GB 65%	GB 66%	GB 64%	GB 64%	GB 66%	GB 65%	GB 64%
BAL @ BUF	BAL 10–36 BUF	BUF 8/8	BUF 62%	BUF 62% $17 BUF -169	BUF 63%	BUF 61%	BUF 62%	BUF 67% $6 BUF -169	BUF 62%	BUF 60%
TEN @ CIN	TEN 36–41 CIN	CIN 8/8	CIN 84%	CIN 85%	CIN 87%	CIN 84%	CIN 85%	CIN 85%	CIN 84%	CIN 85%
ARI @ DAL	ARI 33–30 DAL	DAL 8/8	DAL 71%	DAL 75%	DAL 74%	DAL 68% $2 ARI +265	DAL 73%	DAL 72%	DAL 73%	DAL 72%
KC @ DEN	KC 24–28 DEN	KC 7/8	DEN 53% $8 DEN +100	KC 58% $12 KC -120	KC 55%	KC 54%	KC 55%	KC 56%	KC 60% $7 KC -120	KC 62% $10 KC -120
MIN @ DET	MIN 15–19 DET	MIN 7/8	MIN 58% $12 MIN +150	MIN 55% $10 MIN +150	DET 52% $6 MIN +150	MIN 54% $8 MIN +150	MIN 52% $20 MIN +150	MIN 58% $12 MIN +150	MIN 52% $10 MIN +150	MIN 55% $8 MIN +150
IND @ JAX	IND 7–36 JAX	JAX 8/8	JAX 79%	JAX 80%	JAX 80%	JAX 80%	JAX 80%	JAX 82%	JAX 79%	JAX 78%
LAC @ LAR	LAC 9–24 LAR	LAR 8/8	LAR 73%	LAR 72%	LAR 77%	LAR 71%	LAR 72%	LAR 78%	LAR 77% $2 LAR -295	LAR 72%
NE @ MIA	NE 24–19 MIA	NE 8/8	NE 76%	NE 75%	NE 78%	NE 74%	NE 75%	NE 78%	NE 76%	NE 72%
LV @ NYJ	LV 38–33 NYJ	NYJ 6/8	NYJ 54%	LV 52%	NYJ 53%	LV 52% $3 LV +105	NYJ 55%	NYJ 55%	NYJ 55%	NYJ 55%
CLE @ PIT	CLE 6–27 PIT	PIT 8/8	PIT 61%	PIT 63%	PIT 59% $5 CLE +164	PIT 58% $4 CLE +164	PIT 62%	PIT 60%	PIT 60%	PIT 62%
ATL @ TB	—	TB 6/8	TB 55%	TB 55%	TB 55%	ATL 53% $5 ATL +118	TB 56%	TB 56%	ATL 52% $4 ATL +118	TB 56%
PHI @ WAS	PHI 10–27 WAS	WAS 8/8	WAS 65%	WAS 68%	WAS 62% $5 PHI +210	WAS 58% $6 PHI +210	WAS 70%	WAS 68%	WAS 69%	WAS 68% $5 WAS -255
CHI @ SEA	CHI 34–17 SEA	SEA 8/8	SEA 63%	SEA 62%	SEA 67% $8 SEA -171	SEA 64% $2 SEA -171	SEA 62%	SEA 68% $8 SEA -171	SEA 66% $4 SEA -171	SEA 63%
Record	Home team 9–4	8–5	9–4	9–4	9–4	9–4	8–5	8–5	8–5	8–5

Model by model

Every pick with the reason the model gave for it

Grok 4.69–4Brier 0.192staked $20 of $77.94 · −$4.00

Undefeated Minnesota's elite defense is live at Detroit with Gibbs and St. Brown questionable.

All 14 picks, with reasons

GB 64% CAR @ GBPackers at home with Love should handle Young and a Carolina team coming off a blowout loss.
BUF 62% BAL @ BUFAllen at home against a Ravens side that has dropped two straight with Lamar listed questionable.
CIN 84% TEN @ CINBurrow at home against 1-6 Tennessee is a mismatch even if Chase is only questionable.
DAL 71% ARI @ DALPrescott at home against Brissett and a 2-5 Cardinals team with multiple skill players questionable.
DEN 53% KC @ DEN · bet $8 DEN +100 (+$8.00)Chiefs just scored three at Seattle; Broncos are home on a three-game winning streak at plus money.
MIN 58% MIN @ DET · bet $12 MIN +150 (−$12.00)Six-oh Vikings allow 68 points all year; Lions' Gibbs and St. Brown are both questionable.
JAX 79% IND @ JAXJaguars' defense has allowed 104 points; Colts are 2-5 and fading on the road.
LAR 73% LAC @ LARWinless Chargers with McConkey in concussion protocol visit Stafford at SoFi.
NE 76% NE @ MIAMaye against Malik Willis and a 1-5 Dolphins team missing Achane is a clear road favorite.
NYJ 54% LV @ NYJRaiders have lost four straight; Jets at home in a low-upside matchup of struggling offenses.
PIT 61% CLE @ PITRodgers at home in the rivalry against Watson, with Pittsburgh riding a three-game win streak.
TB 55% ATL @ TBMayfield at home after torching Carolina; Falcons are inconsistent even after beating San Francisco.
WAS 65% PHI @ WASHurts is on IR so McKee starts; Daniels at home should beat a 2-5 Eagles team in free fall.
SEA 63% CHI @ SEASeven-one Seahawks just blanked Kansas City at home and remain the clearer complete team.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline": "Undefeated Minnesota's elite defense is live at Detroit with Gibbs and St. Brown questionable.","picks":[{"game_key":"CAR@GB","pick":"GB","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Packers at home with Love should handle Young and a Carolina team coming off a blowout loss."},{"game_key":"BAL@BUF","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Allen at home against a Ravens side that has dropped two straight with Lamar listed questionable."},{"game_key":"TEN@CIN","pick":"CIN","win_prob":0.84,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Burrow at home against 1-6 Tennessee is a mismatch even if Chase is only questionable."},{"game_key":"ARI@DAL","pick":"DAL","win_prob":0.71,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Prescott at home against Brissett and a 2-5 Cardinals team with multiple skill players questionable."},{"game_key":"KC@DEN","pick":"DEN","win_prob":0.53,"bet_team":"DEN","stake":8,"reason":"Chiefs just scored three at Seattle; Broncos are home on a three-game winning streak at plus money."},{"game_key":"MIN@DET","pick":"MIN","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":"MIN","stake":12,"reason":"Six-oh Vikings allow 68 points all year; Lions' Gibbs and St. Brown are both questionable."},{"game_key":"IND@JAX","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.79,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Jaguars' defense has allowed 104 points; Colts are 2-5 and fading on the road."},{"game_key":"LAC@LAR","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.73,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Winless Chargers with McConkey in concussion protocol visit Stafford at SoFi."},{"game_key":"NE@MIA","pick":"NE","win_prob":0.76,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Maye against Malik Willis and a 1-5 Dolphins team missing Achane is a clear road favorite."},{"game_key":"LV@NYJ","pick":"NYJ","win_prob":0.54,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Raiders have lost four straight; Jets at home in a low-upside matchup of struggling offenses."},{"game_key":"CLE@PIT","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.61,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Rodgers at home in the rivalry against Watson, with Pittsburgh riding a three-game win streak."},{"game_key":"ATL@TB","pick":"TB","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Mayfield at home after torching Carolina; Falcons are inconsistent even after beating San Francisco."},{"game_key":"PHI@WAS","pick":"WAS","win_prob":0.65,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Hurts is on IR so McKee starts; Daniels at home should beat a 2-5 Eagles team in free fall."},{"game_key":"CHI@SEA","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.63,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Seven-one Seahawks just blanked Kansas City at home and remain the clearer complete team."}]}

Gemini 3.1 Pro9–4Brier 0.194staked $39 of $96.15 · −$11.94

The undefeated Vikings offer incredible value as road underdogs, while Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs look to bounce back in Denver.

All 14 picks, with reasons

GB 65% CAR @ GBJordan Love and the Packers at home should bounce back against a Panthers team that just got blown out by Tampa Bay.
BUF 62% BAL @ BUF · bet $17 BUF -169 (+$10.06)Josh Allen has the Bills rolling at 5-1, while Lamar Jackson is questionable for a Ravens team coming off a blowout loss.
CIN 85% TEN @ CINJoe Burrow and the Bengals are heavy favorites at home against a 1-6 Titans squad led by rookie Cam Ward.
DAL 75% ARI @ DALDak Prescott and the Cowboys' offense should overpower Jacoby Brissett and the struggling Cardinals at home.
KC 58% KC @ DEN · bet $12 KC -120 (−$12.00)Patrick Mahomes and the 5-1 Chiefs are undervalued at -120 against rookie Bo Nix and the Broncos.
MIN 55% MIN @ DET · bet $10 MIN +150 (−$10.00)The undefeated Vikings have allowed just 68 points all season, making them excellent value as +150 underdogs in Detroit.
JAX 80% IND @ JAXTrevor Lawrence and the Jaguars' defense, which has allowed only 104 points, should easily handle Daniel Jones and the Colts.
LAR 72% LAC @ LARMatthew Stafford and the Rams should take care of business against the winless Chargers in this LA rivalry game.
NE 75% NE @ MIADrake Maye and the Patriots face a 1-5 Dolphins team forced to start Malik Willis, making New England a safe pick.
LV 52% LV @ NYJKirk Cousins and the Raiders have more offensive firepower than Geno Smith and the 2-5 Jets in a tight matchup.
PIT 63% CLE @ PITAaron Rodgers has the Steelers at 5-2, and their home-field advantage gives them the edge over Deshaun Watson's Browns.
TB 55% ATL @ TBBaker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are coming off a dominant win and should edge out Michael Penix Jr.'s Falcons at home.
WAS 68% PHI @ WASWith Jalen Hurts on IR and Tanner McKee starting for the Eagles, Jayden Daniels and the Commanders should get their first win.
SEA 62% CHI @ SEASam Darnold has the Seahawks flying high at 7-1, and their home-field advantage should be enough to beat Caleb Williams' Bears.

Team page →

Raw response

{
  "headline": "The undefeated Vikings offer incredible value as road underdogs, while Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs look to bounce back in Denver.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "CAR@GB",
      "pick": "GB",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Jordan Love and the Packers at home should bounce back against a Panthers team that just got blown out by Tampa Bay."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BAL@BUF",
      "pick": "BUF",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": "BUF",
      "stake": 17,
      "reason": "Josh Allen has the Bills rolling at 5-1, while Lamar Jackson is questionable for a Ravens team coming off a blowout loss."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "TEN@CIN",
      "pick": "CIN",
      "win_prob": 0.85,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Joe Burrow and the Bengals are heavy favorites at home against a 1-6 Titans squad led by rookie Cam Ward."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "ARI@DAL",
      "pick": "DAL",
      "win_prob": 0.75,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' offense should overpower Jacoby Brissett and the struggling Cardinals at home."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "KC@DEN",
      "pick": "KC",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": "KC",
      "stake": 12,
      "reason": "Patrick Mahomes and the 5-1 Chiefs are undervalued at -120 against rookie Bo Nix and the Broncos."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "MIN@DET",
      "pick": "MIN",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": "MIN",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "The undefeated Vikings have allowed just 68 points all season, making them excellent value as +150 underdogs in Detroit."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "IND@JAX",
      "pick": "JAX",
      "win_prob": 0.80,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars' defense, which has allowed only 104 points, should easily handle Daniel Jones and the Colts."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LAC@LAR",
      "pick": "LAR",
      "win_prob": 0.72,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Matthew Stafford and the Rams should take care of business against the winless Chargers in this LA rivalry game."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NE@MIA",
      "pick": "NE",
      "win_prob": 0.75,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Drake Maye and the Patriots face a 1-5 Dolphins team forced to start Malik Willis, making New England a safe pick."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LV@NYJ",
      "pick": "LV",
      "win_prob": 0.52,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Kirk Cousins and the Raiders have more offensive firepower than Geno Smith and the 2-5 Jets in a tight matchup."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CLE@PIT",
      "pick": "PIT",
      "win_prob": 0.63,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Aaron Rodgers has the Steelers at 5-2, and their home-field advantage gives them the edge over Deshaun Watson's Browns."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "ATL@TB",
      "pick": "TB",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are coming off a dominant win and should edge out Michael Penix Jr.'s Falcons at home."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "PHI@WAS",
      "pick": "WAS",
      "win_prob": 0.68,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "With Jalen Hurts on IR and Tanner McKee starting for the Eagles, Jayden Daniels and the Commanders should get their first win."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CHI@SEA",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Sam Darnold has the Seahawks flying high at 7-1, and their home-field advantage should be enough to beat Caleb Williams' Bears."
    }
  ]
}

Claude Opus 59–4Brier 0.195staked $24 of $79.27 · −$24.00

Minnesota stays unbeaten as a road underdog in Detroit — the best price on the board.

All 14 picks, with reasons

GB 66% CAR @ GBGreen Bay at Lambeau has been far steadier at home; Carolina inconsistent week to week.
BUF 63% BAL @ BUFAllen at home against a Baltimore team coming off a 35-13 beating with Jackson's ankle limited.
CIN 87% TEN @ CINBurrow at home versus a 1-6 Titans team averaging 15 points; price too short to bet.
DAL 74% ARI @ DALDallas offense rolling after 38-21 over Philadelphia; Arizona starts Brissett with banged-up backfield.
KC 55% KC @ DENMahomes and the league's best scoring defense edge Denver, but altitude makes it near a coin flip.
DET 52% MIN @ DET · bet $6 MIN +150 (−$6.00)Vikings are 6-0 allowing 11 points a game; +150 underprices them with Gibbs and St. Brown hurting.
JAX 80% IND @ JAXJacksonville's defense has allowed 104 points all year; Indianapolis has lost three straight.
LAR 77% LAC @ LARChargers are 0-6 scoring 15 a game with McConkey concussed; Rams coming off a blowout win.
NE 78% NE @ MIAMaye versus Malik Willis with Achane on IR; Miami has scored 98 points all season.
NYJ 53% LV @ NYJTwo skidding teams; slight home nod to the Jets with Bowers' calf limiting Las Vegas.
PIT 59% CLE @ PIT · bet $5 CLE +164 (−$5.00)Browns are 5-2 and already beat Pittsburgh; +164 overstates the gap despite their thin offense.
TB 55% ATL @ TBTampa at home off a 37-13 win, though Egbuka's concussion keeps confidence low.
WAS 62% PHI @ WAS · bet $5 PHI +210 (−$5.00)Washington is winless and minus-46; pricing them near 72% against anyone is too rich, even McKee.
SEA 67% CHI @ SEA · bet $8 SEA -171 (−$8.00)Seattle is 7-1 and just held Kansas City to three; home field against a streaky Bears offense.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Minnesota stays unbeaten as a road underdog in Detroit — the best price on the board.","picks":[{"game_key":"CAR@GB","pick":"GB","win_prob":0.66,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Green Bay at Lambeau has been far steadier at home; Carolina inconsistent week to week."},{"game_key":"BAL@BUF","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.63,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Allen at home against a Baltimore team coming off a 35-13 beating with Jackson's ankle limited."},{"game_key":"TEN@CIN","pick":"CIN","win_prob":0.87,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Burrow at home versus a 1-6 Titans team averaging 15 points; price too short to bet."},{"game_key":"ARI@DAL","pick":"DAL","win_prob":0.74,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Dallas offense rolling after 38-21 over Philadelphia; Arizona starts Brissett with banged-up backfield."},{"game_key":"KC@DEN","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Mahomes and the league's best scoring defense edge Denver, but altitude makes it near a coin flip."},{"game_key":"MIN@DET","pick":"DET","win_prob":0.52,"bet_team":"MIN","stake":6,"reason":"Vikings are 6-0 allowing 11 points a game; +150 underprices them with Gibbs and St. Brown hurting."},{"game_key":"IND@JAX","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.80,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Jacksonville's defense has allowed 104 points all year; Indianapolis has lost three straight."},{"game_key":"LAC@LAR","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.77,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Chargers are 0-6 scoring 15 a game with McConkey concussed; Rams coming off a blowout win."},{"game_key":"NE@MIA","pick":"NE","win_prob":0.78,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Maye versus Malik Willis with Achane on IR; Miami has scored 98 points all season."},{"game_key":"LV@NYJ","pick":"NYJ","win_prob":0.53,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Two skidding teams; slight home nod to the Jets with Bowers' calf limiting Las Vegas."},{"game_key":"CLE@PIT","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.59,"bet_team":"CLE","stake":5,"reason":"Browns are 5-2 and already beat Pittsburgh; +164 overstates the gap despite their thin offense."},{"game_key":"ATL@TB","pick":"TB","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Tampa at home off a 37-13 win, though Egbuka's concussion keeps confidence low."},{"game_key":"PHI@WAS","pick":"WAS","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":"PHI","stake":5,"reason":"Washington is winless and minus-46; pricing them near 72% against anyone is too rich, even McKee."},{"game_key":"CHI@SEA","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.67,"bet_team":"SEA","stake":8,"reason":"Seattle is 7-1 and just held Kansas City to three; home field against a streaky Bears offense."}]}

Muse Spark 1.29–4Brier 0.195staked $30 of $89.75 · −$11.55

Undefeated Minnesota is undervalued as an underdog at Detroit despite allowing just 11 points per game.

All 14 picks, with reasons

GB 64% CAR @ GBGreen Bay at home with Jordan Love more consistent than Bryce Young.
BUF 61% BAL @ BUFBuffalo 5-1 at home, Baltimore lost two straight and Lamar is hobbled.
CIN 84% TEN @ CINJoe Burrow at home against 1-6 Titans allowing big points.
DAL 68% ARI @ DAL · bet $2 ARI +265 (+$5.30)Market overvalues Dallas; Arizona +265 offers value despite Brissett starting.
KC 54% KC @ DENMahomes pedigree narrowly outweighs Denver's three-game home win streak.
MIN 54% MIN @ DET · bet $8 MIN +150 (−$8.00)6-0 Minnesota defense allows 11 ppg, undervalued as +150 underdog.
JAX 80% IND @ JAXJacksonville top defense at home overwhelms 2-5 Indianapolis.
LAR 71% LAC @ LARRams at home against winless 0-6 Chargers.
NE 74% NE @ MIADrake Maye faces third-string Malik Willis without Achane.
LV 52% LV @ NYJ · bet $3 LV +105 (+$3.15)Kirk Cousins steadier than Geno Smith in toss-up road game.
PIT 58% CLE @ PIT · bet $4 CLE +164 (−$4.00)Pittsburgh favored too heavily; Cleveland 5-2 defense offers value at +164.
ATL 53% ATL @ TB · bet $5 ATL +118Atlanta just beat 49ers and Green Bay, Tampa is 2-5.
WAS 58% PHI @ WAS · bet $6 PHI +210 (−$6.00)Market overvalues winless Washington; Philly +210 value despite McKee starting.
SEA 64% CHI @ SEA · bet $2 SEA -171 (−$2.00)7-1 Seattle defense at home stifles Chicago after holding KC to 3.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Undefeated Minnesota is undervalued as an underdog at Detroit despite allowing just 11 points per game.","picks":[{"game_key":"CAR@GB","pick":"GB","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Green Bay at home with Jordan Love more consistent than Bryce Young."},{"game_key":"BAL@BUF","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.61,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Buffalo 5-1 at home, Baltimore lost two straight and Lamar is hobbled."},{"game_key":"TEN@CIN","pick":"CIN","win_prob":0.84,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Joe Burrow at home against 1-6 Titans allowing big points."},{"game_key":"ARI@DAL","pick":"DAL","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":"ARI","stake":2,"reason":"Market overvalues Dallas; Arizona +265 offers value despite Brissett starting."},{"game_key":"KC@DEN","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.54,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Mahomes pedigree narrowly outweighs Denver's three-game home win streak."},{"game_key":"MIN@DET","pick":"MIN","win_prob":0.54,"bet_team":"MIN","stake":8,"reason":"6-0 Minnesota defense allows 11 ppg, undervalued as +150 underdog."},{"game_key":"IND@JAX","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.8,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Jacksonville top defense at home overwhelms 2-5 Indianapolis."},{"game_key":"LAC@LAR","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.71,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Rams at home against winless 0-6 Chargers."},{"game_key":"NE@MIA","pick":"NE","win_prob":0.74,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Drake Maye faces third-string Malik Willis without Achane."},{"game_key":"LV@NYJ","pick":"LV","win_prob":0.52,"bet_team":"LV","stake":3,"reason":"Kirk Cousins steadier than Geno Smith in toss-up road game."},{"game_key":"CLE@PIT","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":"CLE","stake":4,"reason":"Pittsburgh favored too heavily; Cleveland 5-2 defense offers value at +164."},{"game_key":"ATL@TB","pick":"ATL","win_prob":0.53,"bet_team":"ATL","stake":5,"reason":"Atlanta just beat 49ers and Green Bay, Tampa is 2-5."},{"game_key":"PHI@WAS","pick":"WAS","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":"PHI","stake":6,"reason":"Market overvalues winless Washington; Philly +210 value despite McKee starting."},{"game_key":"CHI@SEA","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":"SEA","stake":2,"reason":"7-1 Seattle defense at home stifles Chicago after holding KC to 3."}]}

DeepSeek V4 Pro 08138–5Brier 0.193staked $20 of $129.33 · −$20.00

Upset call: Minnesota Vikings over Detroit Lions.

All 14 picks, with reasons

GB 64% CAR @ GBGreen Bay at home with better overall form and Carolina struggling after blowout loss.
BUF 62% BAL @ BUFBuffalo's high-powered offense and home field edge over inconsistent Baltimore.
CIN 85% TEN @ CINCincinnati's strong offense and Tennessee's league-worst record make this a mismatch.
DAL 73% ARI @ DALDallas at home with more talent despite recent struggles, Arizona's defense is porous.
KC 55% KC @ DENKansas City's championship pedigree and Mahomes edge out Denver's recent surge.
MIN 52% MIN @ DET · bet $20 MIN +150 (−$20.00)Minnesota's undefeated record and elite defense offer value against Detroit's leaky defense.
JAX 80% IND @ JAXJacksonville's strong start and home advantage over struggling Indianapolis.
LAR 72% LAC @ LARLos Angeles Rams' superior record and home field against winless Chargers.
NE 75% NE @ MIANew England's better record and defense against Miami's one-win season.
NYJ 55% LV @ NYJNew York Jets' home field and slight edge over slumping Las Vegas.
PIT 62% CLE @ PITPittsburgh's home field and recent three-game win streak over Cleveland's inconsistent play.
TB 56% ATL @ TBTampa Bay's home field and Baker Mayfield's experience over Atlanta's road struggles.
WAS 70% PHI @ WASWashington's home field and Jayden Daniels over Philadelphia's backup quarterback.
SEA 62% CHI @ SEASeattle's 7-1 record and home advantage over Chicago's inconsistent offense.

Team page →

Raw response

{
  "headline": "Upset call: Minnesota Vikings over Detroit Lions.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "CAR@GB",
      "pick": "GB",
      "win_prob": 0.64,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Green Bay at home with better overall form and Carolina struggling after blowout loss."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BAL@BUF",
      "pick": "BUF",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Buffalo's high-powered offense and home field edge over inconsistent Baltimore."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "TEN@CIN",
      "pick": "CIN",
      "win_prob": 0.85,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Cincinnati's strong offense and Tennessee's league-worst record make this a mismatch."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "ARI@DAL",
      "pick": "DAL",
      "win_prob": 0.73,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Dallas at home with more talent despite recent struggles, Arizona's defense is porous."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "KC@DEN",
      "pick": "KC",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Kansas City's championship pedigree and Mahomes edge out Denver's recent surge."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "MIN@DET",
      "pick": "MIN",
      "win_prob": 0.52,
      "bet_team": "MIN",
      "stake": 20,
      "reason": "Minnesota's undefeated record and elite defense offer value against Detroit's leaky defense."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "IND@JAX",
      "pick": "JAX",
      "win_prob": 0.80,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Jacksonville's strong start and home advantage over struggling Indianapolis."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LAC@LAR",
      "pick": "LAR",
      "win_prob": 0.72,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Los Angeles Rams' superior record and home field against winless Chargers."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NE@MIA",
      "pick": "NE",
      "win_prob": 0.75,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "New England's better record and defense against Miami's one-win season."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LV@NYJ",
      "pick": "NYJ",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "New York Jets' home field and slight edge over slumping Las Vegas."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CLE@PIT",
      "pick": "PIT",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Pittsburgh's home field and recent three-game win streak over Cleveland's inconsistent play."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "ATL@TB",
      "pick": "TB",
      "win_prob": 0.56,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Tampa Bay's home field and Baker Mayfield's experience over Atlanta's road struggles."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "PHI@WAS",
      "pick": "WAS",
      "win_prob": 0.70,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Washington's home field and Jayden Daniels over Philadelphia's backup quarterback."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CHI@SEA",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Seattle's 7-1 record and home advantage over Chicago's inconsistent offense."
    }
  ]
}

Qwen3.8 Max8–5Brier 0.198staked $26 of $80.17 · −$16.45

Minnesota's 6-0 start and elite defense make them live underdogs at +150 against a banged-up Detroit team.

All 14 picks, with reasons

GB 66% CAR @ GBGB at home with Jordan Love against a Carolina team that just lost 37-13 to Tampa Bay.
BUF 67% BAL @ BUF · bet $6 BUF -169 (+$3.55)BUF is 5-1 at home; Lamar Jackson's ankle injury tilts this further toward Buffalo.
CIN 85% TEN @ CINCIN's 35-13 demolition of BAL shows their form; TEN is 1-6 with a rookie QB.
DAL 72% ARI @ DALDak Prescott at home against a 2-5 Arizona team starting Jacoby Brissett.
KC 56% KC @ DENMahomes and KC's defense edge out Denver's three-game win streak in a close divisional matchup.
MIN 58% MIN @ DET · bet $12 MIN +150 (−$12.00)MIN is 6-0 allowing 11 points per game; DET missing Gibbs and St. Brown would be huge.
JAX 82% IND @ JAXTrevor Lawrence and a 4-2 JAX team at home against a struggling 2-5 Indianapolis squad.
LAR 78% LAC @ LARLAR is 4-3 with Stafford; LAC is 0-6 and hasn't shown they can win any game.
NE 78% NE @ MIADrake Maye and a 4-3 NE team far superior to 1-5 Miami starting Malik Willis.
NYJ 55% LV @ NYJNYJ at home against an LV team on a four-game losing streak; slight edge to the Jets.
PIT 60% CLE @ PITPIT at home with Rodgers on a three-game win streak; CLE also hot but road is tough.
TB 56% ATL @ TBTB at home coming off a 37-13 win; ATL inconsistent despite beating SF last week.
WAS 68% PHI @ WASPHI starting Tanner McKee with Hurts on IR; Jayden Daniels at home should handle this.
SEA 68% CHI @ SEA · bet $8 SEA -171 (−$8.00)SEA is 7-1 with a dominant defense that just shut out KC; best team in the NFC.

Team page →

Raw response

{
  "headline": "Minnesota's 6-0 start and elite defense make them live underdogs at +150 against a banged-up Detroit team.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "CAR@GB",
      "pick": "GB",
      "win_prob": 0.66,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "GB at home with Jordan Love against a Carolina team that just lost 37-13 to Tampa Bay."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BAL@BUF",
      "pick": "BUF",
      "win_prob": 0.67,
      "bet_team": "BUF",
      "stake": 6,
      "reason": "BUF is 5-1 at home; Lamar Jackson's ankle injury tilts this further toward Buffalo."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "TEN@CIN",
      "pick": "CIN",
      "win_prob": 0.85,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "CIN's 35-13 demolition of BAL shows their form; TEN is 1-6 with a rookie QB."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "ARI@DAL",
      "pick": "DAL",
      "win_prob": 0.72,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Dak Prescott at home against a 2-5 Arizona team starting Jacoby Brissett."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "KC@DEN",
      "pick": "KC",
      "win_prob": 0.56,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Mahomes and KC's defense edge out Denver's three-game win streak in a close divisional matchup."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "MIN@DET",
      "pick": "MIN",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": "MIN",
      "stake": 12,
      "reason": "MIN is 6-0 allowing 11 points per game; DET missing Gibbs and St. Brown would be huge."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "IND@JAX",
      "pick": "JAX",
      "win_prob": 0.82,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Trevor Lawrence and a 4-2 JAX team at home against a struggling 2-5 Indianapolis squad."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LAC@LAR",
      "pick": "LAR",
      "win_prob": 0.78,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "LAR is 4-3 with Stafford; LAC is 0-6 and hasn't shown they can win any game."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NE@MIA",
      "pick": "NE",
      "win_prob": 0.78,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Drake Maye and a 4-3 NE team far superior to 1-5 Miami starting Malik Willis."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LV@NYJ",
      "pick": "NYJ",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "NYJ at home against an LV team on a four-game losing streak; slight edge to the Jets."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CLE@PIT",
      "pick": "PIT",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "PIT at home with Rodgers on a three-game win streak; CLE also hot but road is tough."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "ATL@TB",
      "pick": "TB",
      "win_prob": 0.56,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "TB at home coming off a 37-13 win; ATL inconsistent despite beating SF last week."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "PHI@WAS",
      "pick": "WAS",
      "win_prob": 0.68,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "PHI starting Tanner McKee with Hurts on IR; Jayden Daniels at home should handle this."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CHI@SEA",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.68,
      "bet_team": "SEA",
      "stake": 8,
      "reason": "SEA is 7-1 with a dominant defense that just shut out KC; best team in the NFC."
    }
  ]
}

GPT-5.6 Sol8–5Brier 0.200staked $27 of $65.98 · −$20.32

Cincinnati is the week’s safest pick behind Joe Burrow against a Tennessee team that has lost six of seven.

All 14 picks, with reasons

GB 65% CAR @ GBGreen Bay’s home field and steadier recent defense outweigh Carolina’s upset potential and depleted receiving corps.
BUF 62% BAL @ BUFBuffalo’s 5-1 record, Josh Allen, and home field provide the edge over a slumping Baltimore team.
CIN 84% TEN @ CINJoe Burrow and Cincinnati’s strong defense should overwhelm a Tennessee team with six losses and a negative point differential.
DAL 73% ARI @ DALDak Prescott and Dallas’ productive offense have a substantial matchup advantage over Jacoby Brissett and Arizona’s struggling defense.
KC 60% KC @ DEN · bet $7 KC -120 (−$7.00)Kansas City’s defense, Patrick Mahomes, and its earlier 31-10 victory over Denver outweigh last week’s poor performance.
MIN 52% MIN @ DET · bet $10 MIN +150 (−$10.00)Minnesota’s undefeated record and league-best scoring defense make the Vikings an attractive underdog despite Detroit’s home field.
JAX 79% IND @ JAXJacksonville’s strong defense and 4-2 record provide clear advantages over an Indianapolis team riding a three-game losing streak.
LAR 77% LAC @ LAR · bet $2 LAR -295 (+$0.68)The Rams have the stronger offense, home field, and a decisive form advantage over the winless Chargers.
NE 76% NE @ MIADrake Maye and New England’s balanced form offer a major advantage over Malik Willis and Miami’s Achane-less offense.
NYJ 55% LV @ NYJHome field and Las Vegas’ four-game losing streak narrowly favor the Jets in an otherwise evenly matched contest.
PIT 60% CLE @ PITPittsburgh’s home field and three-game winning streak narrowly outweigh Cleveland’s earlier head-to-head victory.
ATL 52% ATL @ TB · bet $4 ATL +118Atlanta’s higher-upside victories and Tampa Bay’s pass-catcher injuries make the Falcons a slight road favorite in my assessment.
WAS 69% PHI @ WASJayden Daniels holds a significant quarterback advantage over Tanner McKee while Philadelphia enters on a five-game losing streak.
SEA 66% CHI @ SEA · bet $4 SEA -171 (−$4.00)Seattle’s 7-1 record, home field, and dominant win over Kansas City outweigh Chicago’s encouraging recent form.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Cincinnati is the week’s safest pick behind Joe Burrow against a Tennessee team that has lost six of seven.","picks":[{"game_key":"CAR@GB","pick":"GB","win_prob":0.65,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Green Bay’s home field and steadier recent defense outweigh Carolina’s upset potential and depleted receiving corps."},{"game_key":"BAL@BUF","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Buffalo’s 5-1 record, Josh Allen, and home field provide the edge over a slumping Baltimore team."},{"game_key":"TEN@CIN","pick":"CIN","win_prob":0.84,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Joe Burrow and Cincinnati’s strong defense should overwhelm a Tennessee team with six losses and a negative point differential."},{"game_key":"ARI@DAL","pick":"DAL","win_prob":0.73,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Dak Prescott and Dallas’ productive offense have a substantial matchup advantage over Jacoby Brissett and Arizona’s struggling defense."},{"game_key":"KC@DEN","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.60,"bet_team":"KC","stake":7,"reason":"Kansas City’s defense, Patrick Mahomes, and its earlier 31-10 victory over Denver outweigh last week’s poor performance."},{"game_key":"MIN@DET","pick":"MIN","win_prob":0.52,"bet_team":"MIN","stake":10,"reason":"Minnesota’s undefeated record and league-best scoring defense make the Vikings an attractive underdog despite Detroit’s home field."},{"game_key":"IND@JAX","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.79,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Jacksonville’s strong defense and 4-2 record provide clear advantages over an Indianapolis team riding a three-game losing streak."},{"game_key":"LAC@LAR","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.77,"bet_team":"LAR","stake":2,"reason":"The Rams have the stronger offense, home field, and a decisive form advantage over the winless Chargers."},{"game_key":"NE@MIA","pick":"NE","win_prob":0.76,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Drake Maye and New England’s balanced form offer a major advantage over Malik Willis and Miami’s Achane-less offense."},{"game_key":"LV@NYJ","pick":"NYJ","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Home field and Las Vegas’ four-game losing streak narrowly favor the Jets in an otherwise evenly matched contest."},{"game_key":"CLE@PIT","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.60,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Pittsburgh’s home field and three-game winning streak narrowly outweigh Cleveland’s earlier head-to-head victory."},{"game_key":"ATL@TB","pick":"ATL","win_prob":0.52,"bet_team":"ATL","stake":4,"reason":"Atlanta’s higher-upside victories and Tampa Bay’s pass-catcher injuries make the Falcons a slight road favorite in my assessment."},{"game_key":"PHI@WAS","pick":"WAS","win_prob":0.69,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Jayden Daniels holds a significant quarterback advantage over Tanner McKee while Philadelphia enters on a five-game losing streak."},{"game_key":"CHI@SEA","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.66,"bet_team":"SEA","stake":4,"reason":"Seattle’s 7-1 record, home field, and dominant win over Kansas City outweigh Chicago’s encouraging recent form."}]}

Kimi K38–5Brier 0.205staked $23 of $51.54 · −$16.04

Undefeated Minnesota as an underdog at Detroit is the week's best value, and Kansas City at -120 in Denver is a gift.

All 14 picks, with reasons

GB 64% CAR @ GBPackers at home with Love are steadier than a Carolina team just blown out by Tampa Bay.
BUF 60% BAL @ BUFBuffalo 5-1 at home with Allen; Jackson is questionable with an ankle and Baltimore just lost 35-13 to Cincy.
CIN 85% TEN @ CINBengals rolling behind Burrow after routing Baltimore; 1-6 Tennessee is overmatched even with Chase questionable.
DAL 72% ARI @ DALDallas just hung 38 on Philly and Arizona's backfield and top receiver are all banged up.
KC 62% KC @ DEN · bet $10 KC -120 (−$10.00)Chiefs already beat Denver 31-10 and own the league's best scoring defense; near-even money is value.
MIN 55% MIN @ DET · bet $8 MIN +150 (−$8.00)6-0 Vikings allowing 11 points a game are underdogs while Detroit's Gibbs and St. Brown are questionable.
JAX 78% IND @ JAXJaguars' league-best defense (104 allowed) at home against a 2-5 Colts team with a thin receiving corps.
LAR 72% LAC @ LARWinless Chargers with Herbert's top targets hurt; Stafford and the Rams just put 35 on Vegas.
NE 72% NE @ MIAPatriots are the better team and Miami is starting Malik Willis with Achane on IR.
NYJ 55% LV @ NYJCoin-flip game; Jets at home with Geno against a Raiders team that has lost four straight.
PIT 62% CLE @ PITSteelers have won four straight with Rodgers and host a Cleveland team they narrowly lost to earlier.
TB 56% ATL @ TBBucs just scored 37 on Carolina and get Atlanta at home despite both teams' injury lists.
WAS 68% PHI @ WAS · bet $5 WAS -255 (+$1.96)Hurts on IR leaves Tanner McKee starting for a 2-5 Eagles team; Daniels gives winless Washington the edge.
SEA 63% CHI @ SEA7-1 Seahawks at home just shut down Mahomes; Chicago is good but Seattle's defense travels at home.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Undefeated Minnesota as an underdog at Detroit is the week's best value, and Kansas City at -120 in Denver is a gift.","picks":[{"game_key":"CAR@GB","pick":"GB","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Packers at home with Love are steadier than a Carolina team just blown out by Tampa Bay."},{"game_key":"BAL@BUF","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.6,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Buffalo 5-1 at home with Allen; Jackson is questionable with an ankle and Baltimore just lost 35-13 to Cincy."},{"game_key":"TEN@CIN","pick":"CIN","win_prob":0.85,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Bengals rolling behind Burrow after routing Baltimore; 1-6 Tennessee is overmatched even with Chase questionable."},{"game_key":"ARI@DAL","pick":"DAL","win_prob":0.72,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Dallas just hung 38 on Philly and Arizona's backfield and top receiver are all banged up."},{"game_key":"KC@DEN","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":"KC","stake":10,"reason":"Chiefs already beat Denver 31-10 and own the league's best scoring defense; near-even money is value."},{"game_key":"MIN@DET","pick":"MIN","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":"MIN","stake":8,"reason":"6-0 Vikings allowing 11 points a game are underdogs while Detroit's Gibbs and St. Brown are questionable."},{"game_key":"IND@JAX","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.78,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Jaguars' league-best defense (104 allowed) at home against a 2-5 Colts team with a thin receiving corps."},{"game_key":"LAC@LAR","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.72,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Winless Chargers with Herbert's top targets hurt; Stafford and the Rams just put 35 on Vegas."},{"game_key":"NE@MIA","pick":"NE","win_prob":0.72,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Patriots are the better team and Miami is starting Malik Willis with Achane on IR."},{"game_key":"LV@NYJ","pick":"NYJ","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Coin-flip game; Jets at home with Geno against a Raiders team that has lost four straight."},{"game_key":"CLE@PIT","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Steelers have won four straight with Rodgers and host a Cleveland team they narrowly lost to earlier."},{"game_key":"ATL@TB","pick":"TB","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Bucs just scored 37 on Carolina and get Atlanta at home despite both teams' injury lists."},{"game_key":"PHI@WAS","pick":"WAS","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":"WAS","stake":5,"reason":"Hurts on IR leaves Tanner McKee starting for a 2-5 Eagles team; Daniels gives winless Washington the edge."},{"game_key":"CHI@SEA","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.63,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"7-1 Seahawks at home just shut down Mahomes; Chicago is good but Seattle's defense travels at home."}]}

What every model was sent

One DATA block, identical for all 8 · sha256 49cca4c4301f70d0… · each model's own bankroll is stated after the block, outside the hash

System prompt

You are picking the winner of every NFL game this week, and managing a
bankroll of play money you can bet on those games.

This is a public prediction record, for entertainment. The money is not real
and you are not advising anyone to bet.

YOU MAY USE YOUR OWN FOOTBALL KNOWLEDGE: coaching, quarterback quality, roster
strength, home field, how these teams are built. But your knowledge stops
before this season started, and the DATA block does not:
- this_season has every result so far this season. Rosters, coaches and form
  may have changed since your training data. Where DATA disagrees with your
  memory, DATA wins.
- injuries is the current injury report for starters and key backups.
- projected_starting_qb is who is projected to start at quarterback THIS week.
- moneyline is the market price on each side to win the game, in American odds.
If your reasoning relies on a player, check he is not listed as out.

THE BANKROLL. Every competitor was given $100 when betting opened in week
4, and it has to last until the end of the NFL regular season. There
are no top-ups: what you lose is gone for the rest of the season, and what you win
you can bet again. The competitor holding the most money after the last regular-season
week wins this part. Your current balance, and how many weeks are left, are given
after the DATA block.
- A bet is on one team to win the game outright, at that team's moneyline.
  +150 means a $10 bet wins $15 profit. -150 means a $15 bet wins $10 profit.
  A losing bet loses the stake. A tie returns the stake.
- You may bet on either team — it does not have to be the team you pick — on
  any number of games, or on none. Stakes are whole dollars, and your stakes
  this week together may not exceed the amount available to you.
- The two sides' prices include the market's margin, so betting at random loses
  money over time.
- A game with a null moneyline cannot be bet on this week.

For EVERY game in games, return:
- pick: the team code (one of the two in that game) you expect to win.
- win_prob: your probability that your pick wins, from 0.5 to 1.
  0.5 is a coin flip. 0.75 means your pick wins three times in four. 0.95 is
  close to certain. These are scored all season with a Brier score — a
  confident miss costs far more than a cautious one — and published.
- bet_team: the team you are betting on, or null for no bet.
- stake: whole dollars on bet_team, or 0 for no bet.
- reason: one sentence, at most 25 words, naming what decided it.

Return only a single JSON object. No preamble, no markdown, no code fences.

Prompt with the DATA block

=== DATA ===
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Brown","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Ankle","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Romeo Doubs","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Shoulder","depth_chart_order":6,"preseason_starter":true}],"NYJ":[{"name":"Breece Hall","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Quadriceps","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Braelon Allen","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Ankle","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":false}],"PHI":[{"name":"Jalen Hurts","position":"QB","status":"IR","body_part":"Calf","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Saquon Barkley","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Back","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Tank Bigsby","position":"RB","status":"IR","body_part":"Abdomen","depth_chart_order":4,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"DeVonta Smith","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Dontayvion Wicks","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Ankle","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true}],"PIT":[{"name":"Michael Pittman Jr.","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Foot","depth_chart_order":6,"preseason_starter":true}],"SEA":[{"name":"Zach Charbonnet","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Knee - ACL","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Jadarian Price","position":"RB","status":"IR","body_part":"Chest","depth_chart_order":8,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Rashid Shaheed","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Knee","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true}],"TB":[{"name":"Kenny Gainwell","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Hip","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Emeka Egbuka","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Concussion","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Jalen McMillan","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Knee - PCL","depth_chart_order":7,"preseason_starter":true}],"TEN":[{"name":"Tyjae Spears","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Knee","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Carnell Tate","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Shoulder","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true}],"WAS":[{"name":"Jacory Croskey-Merritt","position":"RB","status":"IR","body_part":"Groin","depth_chart_order":6,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"John Bates","position":"TE","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Shoulder","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":false},{"name":"Stefon Diggs","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Hand","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Terry McLaurin","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Knee","depth_chart_order":6,"preseason_starter":true}]},"projected_starting_qb":{"ARI":"Jacoby Brissett","ATL":"Michael Penix Jr.","BAL":"Lamar Jackson","BUF":"Josh Allen","CAR":"Bryce Young","CHI":"Caleb Williams","CIN":"Joe Burrow","CLE":"Deshaun Watson","DAL":"Dak Prescott","DEN":"Bo Nix","DET":"Jared Goff","GB":"Jordan Love","IND":"Daniel Jones","JAX":"Trevor Lawrence","KC":"Patrick Mahomes","LAC":"Justin Herbert","LAR":"Matthew Stafford","LV":"Kirk Cousins","MIA":"Malik Willis","MIN":"Kyler Murray","NE":"Drake Maye","NYJ":"Geno Smith","PHI":"Tanner McKee","PIT":"Aaron Rodgers","SEA":"Sam Darnold","TB":"Baker Mayfield","TEN":"Cam Ward","WAS":"Jayden Daniels"},"data_notes":["Scores in this_season are final NFL scores, most recent week last.","injuries lists QB/RB/WR/TE on the injury report who were preseason starters (preseason_starter: true) or are first or second on the depth chart now (starting QB only). Teams move an injured starter down the depth chart, so a preseason starter with a high depth_chart_order is usually hurt, not benched.","projected_starting_qb is the highest-projected quarterback for that team this week; null if none is projected.","moneyline is the median price across US sportsbooks when these prices were taken, in American odds, keyed by team. It includes the bookmakers' margin. null means no price was available.","There is no weather and no point spread in this data set."]}
=== END DATA ===

YOUR BANKROLL: $79.27 available. Your stakes this week may total at most $79.
This is week 8. Betting runs through week 18, the last week of the regular season: 11 weeks including this one.

Pick the winner of all 14 games in week 8. Every game_key in games, exactly once.

Return exactly this JSON shape and nothing else (one entry in picks per game):
{
  "headline": "One sentence: the pick you are most sure of, or the upset you are calling.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "AWAY@HOME",
      "pick": "HOME",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "One sentence, 25 words max."
    }
  ]
}