Week 9 NFL picks

Locked before the week's first kickoff · graded against final scores by code

For entertainment only. This is a public record of what eight AI models predict, not betting advice. The bankroll is play money: no real bets are placed, the prices are a median across books, and nothing on this site links to a sportsbook. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Week 9 so far

15 games, none played yet. Every pick below was locked before the first kickoff.
34 bets, $244 staked in total.

Against the grain

Every pick that went against the rest of the panel. The moneyline is in the prompt, so most picks restate the market; these are where a model claimed to know something the market does not. The edge is the model's own probability minus the market's, margin removed — what it asserted, not our forecast.

Claude Opus 5 — MIN over BUF, 52% · market 38%, edge +14 pts · alone against 7 · bet $7 MIN +150Minnesota's defense has allowed 87 points all season and gets Buffalo indoors as a home dog.

Game by game

Each model's pick and how sure it was, and its bet if it made one · green won, red lost · outlined against the panel

Game	Final	Consensus	Claude Opus 5	DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813	Gemini 3.1 Pro	GPT-5.6 Sol	Grok 4.6	Kimi K3	Muse Spark 1.2	Qwen3.8 Max
JAX @ BAL	—	JAX 8/8	JAX 84%	JAX 85%	JAX 85% $10 JAX -510	JAX 82%	JAX 81%	JAX 85% $5 JAX -510	JAX 81%	JAX 85%
CIN @ ATL	—	CIN 8/8	CIN 59% $5 ATL +145	CIN 65% $6 CIN -170	CIN 65%	CIN 63%	CIN 63% $6 CIN -170	CIN 62%	CIN 62%	CIN 65%
DEN @ CAR	—	DEN 8/8	DEN 62% $8 DEN -145	DEN 62% $8 DEN -145	DEN 60%	DEN 59%	DEN 62% $8 DEN -145	DEN 58%	DEN 60%	DEN 62%
TB @ CHI	—	CHI 8/8	CHI 72%	CHI 75%	CHI 75% $15 CHI -275	CHI 72%	CHI 71%	CHI 70% $5 CHI -275	CHI 68%	CHI 78% $7 CHI -275
DAL @ IND	—	DAL 8/8	DAL 68%	DAL 70%	DAL 70%	DAL 69%	DAL 67%	DAL 65%	DAL 64%	DAL 68%
NYJ @ KC	—	KC 8/8	KC 85%	KC 85%	KC 85%	KC 83%	KC 79%	KC 85% $5 KC -525	KC 82%	KC 86%
HOU @ LAC	—	HOU 8/8	HOU 68%	HOU 72%	HOU 70% $10 HOU -235	HOU 70%	HOU 64%	HOU 68% $5 HOU -235	HOU 64%	HOU 72%
DET @ MIA	—	DET 8/8	DET 78%	DET 80% $16 DET -325	DET 78% $15 DET -325	DET 77%	DET 75%	DET 72% $5 DET -325	DET 73%	DET 80% $5 DET -325
GB @ NE	—	NE 8/8	NE 59%	NE 60%	NE 62%	NE 58% $2 GB +145	NE 57%	NE 58%	NE 58%	NE 60%
CLE @ NO	—	NO 4/8	NO 55%	NO 60%	CLE 55% $4 CLE +138	NO 56% $1 CLE +138	CLE 54% $5 CLE +138	NO 55%	CLE 55% $8 CLE +138	CLE 55% $4 CLE +138
NYG @ PHI	—	NYG 8/8	NYG 64%	NYG 65%	NYG 65% $20 NYG -175	NYG 65% $1 NYG -175	NYG 65% $8 NYG -175	NYG 60%	NYG 60%	NYG 70% $8 NYG -175
ARI @ SEA	—	SEA 8/8	SEA 76%	SEA 82%	SEA 80%	SEA 76%	SEA 68%	SEA 68%	SEA 71%	SEA 72%
LV @ SF	—	SF 8/8	SF 80%	SF 83%	SF 82%	SF 80%	SF 76%	SF 80% $5 SF -475	SF 77%	SF 83%
LAR @ WAS	—	LAR 8/8	LAR 69%	LAR 72% $10 LAR -225	LAR 70% $10 LAR -225	LAR 69%	LAR 65%	LAR 65%	LAR 67%	LAR 72%
BUF @ MIN	—	BUF 7/8	MIN 52% $7 MIN +150	BUF 62%	BUF 62%	BUF 56% $2 MIN +150	BUF 58%	BUF 62% $5 BUF -177	BUF 57%	BUF 62%
Record	Home team 0–0	0–0	0–0	0–0	0–0	0–0	0–0	0–0	0–0	0–0

Model by model

Every pick with the reason the model gave for it

Claude Opus 50–0staked $20 of $55.27

Baltimore without Lamar Jackson is a free square for Jacksonville's league-best defense.

All 15 picks, with reasons

JAX 84% JAX @ BALLamar Jackson out leaves Joe Fagnano facing the NFL's stingiest defense; price too short to back.
CIN 59% CIN @ ATL · bet $5 ATL +145Burrow's Bengals are better, but Atlanta at home after beating San Francisco is slightly underpriced.
DEN 62% DEN @ CAR · bet $8 DEN -145Denver has won four straight including at Kansas City; Carolina has lost two in a row.
CHI 72% TB @ CHIChicago is 6-2 and strong at home; Tampa Bay inconsistent and banged up at receiver.
DAL 68% DAL @ INDIndianapolis was blown out 7-36 last week; Dallas still scores plenty with Prescott.
KC 85% NYJ @ KCMahomes at home against a 2-6 Jets team that just lost to Las Vegas.
HOU 68% HOU @ LACChargers are 0-7 scoring 14 points a game; Houston's defense travels well.
DET 78% DET @ MIAMiami at 1-6 with Malik Willis and no Achane cannot match Detroit's offense.
NE 59% GB @ NEMaye at home edges a solid Green Bay team, but A.J. Brown's ankle trims confidence.
NO 55% CLE @ NOShedeur Sanders starting caps Cleveland's weak offense; New Orleans gets the home nod.
NYG 64% NYG @ PHIPhiladelphia is 2-6 with Joe Milton replacing Hurts; Giants defense has been steady.
SEA 76% ARI @ SEASeattle 7-2 at home, but Darnold out and Lock questionable makes the big price unattractive.
SF 80% LV @ SFSan Francisco's defense at home against a Raiders team that has lost four of five.
LAR 69% LAR @ WASRams rolling and Washington is 1-5-1 without Terry McLaurin.
MIN 52% BUF @ MIN · bet $7 MIN +150Minnesota's defense has allowed 87 points all season and gets Buffalo indoors as a home dog.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Baltimore without Lamar Jackson is a free square for Jacksonville's league-best defense.","picks":[{"game_key":"JAX@BAL","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.84,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Lamar Jackson out leaves Joe Fagnano facing the NFL's stingiest defense; price too short to back."},{"game_key":"CIN@ATL","pick":"CIN","win_prob":0.59,"bet_team":"ATL","stake":5,"reason":"Burrow's Bengals are better, but Atlanta at home after beating San Francisco is slightly underpriced."},{"game_key":"DEN@CAR","pick":"DEN","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":"DEN","stake":8,"reason":"Denver has won four straight including at Kansas City; Carolina has lost two in a row."},{"game_key":"TB@CHI","pick":"CHI","win_prob":0.72,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Chicago is 6-2 and strong at home; Tampa Bay inconsistent and banged up at receiver."},{"game_key":"DAL@IND","pick":"DAL","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Indianapolis was blown out 7-36 last week; Dallas still scores plenty with Prescott."},{"game_key":"NYJ@KC","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.85,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Mahomes at home against a 2-6 Jets team that just lost to Las Vegas."},{"game_key":"HOU@LAC","pick":"HOU","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Chargers are 0-7 scoring 14 points a game; Houston's defense travels well."},{"game_key":"DET@MIA","pick":"DET","win_prob":0.78,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Miami at 1-6 with Malik Willis and no Achane cannot match Detroit's offense."},{"game_key":"GB@NE","pick":"NE","win_prob":0.59,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Maye at home edges a solid Green Bay team, but A.J. Brown's ankle trims confidence."},{"game_key":"CLE@NO","pick":"NO","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Shedeur Sanders starting caps Cleveland's weak offense; New Orleans gets the home nod."},{"game_key":"NYG@PHI","pick":"NYG","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Philadelphia is 2-6 with Joe Milton replacing Hurts; Giants defense has been steady."},{"game_key":"ARI@SEA","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.76,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Seattle 7-2 at home, but Darnold out and Lock questionable makes the big price unattractive."},{"game_key":"LV@SF","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.80,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"San Francisco's defense at home against a Raiders team that has lost four of five."},{"game_key":"LAR@WAS","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.69,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Rams rolling and Washington is 1-5-1 without Terry McLaurin."},{"game_key":"BUF@MIN","pick":"MIN","win_prob":0.52,"bet_team":"MIN","stake":7,"reason":"Minnesota's defense has allowed 87 points all season and gets Buffalo indoors as a home dog."}]}

DeepSeek V4 Pro 08130–0staked $40 of $109.33

Most confident in Jacksonville beating Baltimore with Lamar Jackson sidelined.

All 15 picks, with reasons

JAX 85% JAX @ BALLamar Jackson out, JAX defense and Trevor Lawrence dominate.
CIN 65% CIN @ ATL · bet $6 CIN -170Burrow leads 5-2 Bengals over inconsistent Falcons.
DEN 62% DEN @ CAR · bet $8 DEN -145Bo Nix improving, Denver defense edges Carolina.
CHI 75% TB @ CHICaleb Williams and 6-2 Bears too strong for 2-5 Buccaneers.
DAL 70% DAL @ INDDak Prescott outplays Daniel Jones, Colts struggling.
KC 85% NYJ @ KCMahomes and Chiefs defense overwhelm Jets.
HOU 72% HOU @ LACStroud leads Texans over winless Chargers.
DET 80% DET @ MIA · bet $16 DET -325Goff and 5-2 Lions face 1-6 Dolphins with Malik Willis.
NE 60% GB @ NEPatriots home edge and Maye over Love in close game.
NO 60% CLE @ NOSaints home field and Browns quarterback uncertainty.
NYG 65% NYG @ PHIMcCarthy and 4-2-1 Giants over 2-6 Eagles with Milton.
SEA 82% ARI @ SEASeahawks 7-2 at home too much for 3-5 Cardinals.
SF 83% LV @ SFPurdy and 5-2 49ers handle Raiders.
LAR 72% LAR @ WAS · bet $10 LAR -225Stafford and 5-3 Rams over 1-5-1 Commanders.
BUF 62% BUF @ MINJosh Allen and 6-1 Bills edge Vikings with Murray questionable.

Team page →

Raw response

{
  "headline": "Most confident in Jacksonville beating Baltimore with Lamar Jackson sidelined.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "JAX@BAL",
      "pick": "JAX",
      "win_prob": 0.85,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Lamar Jackson out, JAX defense and Trevor Lawrence dominate."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CIN@ATL",
      "pick": "CIN",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": "CIN",
      "stake": 6,
      "reason": "Burrow leads 5-2 Bengals over inconsistent Falcons."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DEN@CAR",
      "pick": "DEN",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": "DEN",
      "stake": 8,
      "reason": "Bo Nix improving, Denver defense edges Carolina."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "TB@CHI",
      "pick": "CHI",
      "win_prob": 0.75,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Caleb Williams and 6-2 Bears too strong for 2-5 Buccaneers."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DAL@IND",
      "pick": "DAL",
      "win_prob": 0.70,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Dak Prescott outplays Daniel Jones, Colts struggling."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYJ@KC",
      "pick": "KC",
      "win_prob": 0.85,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Mahomes and Chiefs defense overwhelm Jets."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "HOU@LAC",
      "pick": "HOU",
      "win_prob": 0.72,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Stroud leads Texans over winless Chargers."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DET@MIA",
      "pick": "DET",
      "win_prob": 0.80,
      "bet_team": "DET",
      "stake": 16,
      "reason": "Goff and 5-2 Lions face 1-6 Dolphins with Malik Willis."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "GB@NE",
      "pick": "NE",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Patriots home edge and Maye over Love in close game."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CLE@NO",
      "pick": "NO",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Saints home field and Browns quarterback uncertainty."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYG@PHI",
      "pick": "NYG",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "McCarthy and 4-2-1 Giants over 2-6 Eagles with Milton."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "ARI@SEA",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.82,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Seahawks 7-2 at home too much for 3-5 Cardinals."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LV@SF",
      "pick": "SF",
      "win_prob": 0.83,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Purdy and 5-2 49ers handle Raiders."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LAR@WAS",
      "pick": "LAR",
      "win_prob": 0.72,
      "bet_team": "LAR",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "Stafford and 5-3 Rams over 1-5-1 Commanders."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BUF@MIN",
      "pick": "BUF",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Josh Allen and 6-1 Bills edge Vikings with Murray questionable."
    }
  ]
}

Gemini 3.1 Pro0–0staked $84 of $84.21

The Giants capitalize on an injury-riddled Eagles squad, while the Lions and Bears cruise to comfortable victories.

All 15 picks, with reasons

JAX 85% JAX @ BAL · bet $10 JAX -510With Lamar Jackson out, the Ravens turn to Joe Fagnano against a 5-2 Jaguars team allowing just 15.8 points per game.
CIN 65% CIN @ ATLJoe Burrow and the Bengals are rolling at 5-2 and should outpace Michael Penix Jr.'s Falcons.
DEN 60% DEN @ CARDenver's defense has been solid, and Bo Nix should do enough to get past a struggling 3-4 Panthers squad.
CHI 75% TB @ CHI · bet $15 CHI -275Caleb Williams has the Bears at 6-2, and they should comfortably handle a 2-5 Buccaneers team at Soldier Field.
DAL 70% DAL @ INDDespite a 3-6 record, Dallas has the offensive firepower with Dak Prescott to outscore Daniel Jones and the 2-6 Colts.
KC 85% NYJ @ KCPatrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are heavy favorites at home against a 2-6 Jets team led by Geno Smith.
HOU 70% HOU @ LAC · bet $10 HOU -235The Chargers are winless at 0-7, making C.J. Stroud and the Texans a solid bet to bounce back.
DET 78% DET @ MIA · bet $15 DET -325Miami is 1-6 and starting Malik Willis, which spells trouble against Jared Goff and a potent 5-2 Lions offense.
NE 62% GB @ NEDrake Maye has the Patriots playing well at home, giving them a slight edge over Jordan Love's Packers.
CLE 55% CLE @ NO · bet $4 CLE +138The Browns are 5-3 and offer good upset value against a 2-5 Saints team starting Tyler Shough.
NYG 65% NYG @ PHI · bet $20 NYG -175With Jalen Hurts on IR and Joe Milton starting for the 2-6 Eagles, the Giants are well-positioned for a road win.
SEA 80% ARI @ SEAEven with Drew Lock starting, the 7-2 Seahawks are too strong at home for Gardner Minshew and the 3-5 Cardinals.
SF 82% LV @ SFBrock Purdy and the 5-2 49ers should easily handle a Raiders team that has struggled defensively this season.
LAR 70% LAR @ WAS · bet $10 LAR -225Matthew Stafford and the 5-3 Rams have the offensive edge over a 1-5-1 Commanders team.
BUF 62% BUF @ MINIn a clash of 6-1 teams, Josh Allen's explosive Bills offense gives them the slight upper hand on the road.

Team page →

Raw response

```json
{
  "headline": "The Giants capitalize on an injury-riddled Eagles squad, while the Lions and Bears cruise to comfortable victories.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "JAX@BAL",
      "pick": "JAX",
      "win_prob": 0.85,
      "bet_team": "JAX",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "With Lamar Jackson out, the Ravens turn to Joe Fagnano against a 5-2 Jaguars team allowing just 15.8 points per game."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CIN@ATL",
      "pick": "CIN",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Joe Burrow and the Bengals are rolling at 5-2 and should outpace Michael Penix Jr.'s Falcons."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DEN@CAR",
      "pick": "DEN",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Denver's defense has been solid, and Bo Nix should do enough to get past a struggling 3-4 Panthers squad."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "TB@CHI",
      "pick": "CHI",
      "win_prob": 0.75,
      "bet_team": "CHI",
      "stake": 15,
      "reason": "Caleb Williams has the Bears at 6-2, and they should comfortably handle a 2-5 Buccaneers team at Soldier Field."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DAL@IND",
      "pick": "DAL",
      "win_prob": 0.70,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Despite a 3-6 record, Dallas has the offensive firepower with Dak Prescott to outscore Daniel Jones and the 2-6 Colts."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYJ@KC",
      "pick": "KC",
      "win_prob": 0.85,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are heavy favorites at home against a 2-6 Jets team led by Geno Smith."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "HOU@LAC",
      "pick": "HOU",
      "win_prob": 0.70,
      "bet_team": "HOU",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "The Chargers are winless at 0-7, making C.J. Stroud and the Texans a solid bet to bounce back."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DET@MIA",
      "pick": "DET",
      "win_prob": 0.78,
      "bet_team": "DET",
      "stake": 15,
      "reason": "Miami is 1-6 and starting Malik Willis, which spells trouble against Jared Goff and a potent 5-2 Lions offense."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "GB@NE",
      "pick": "NE",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Drake Maye has the Patriots playing well at home, giving them a slight edge over Jordan Love's Packers."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CLE@NO",
      "pick": "CLE",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": "CLE",
      "stake": 4,
      "reason": "The Browns are 5-3 and offer good upset value against a 2-5 Saints team starting Tyler Shough."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYG@PHI",
      "pick": "NYG",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": "NYG",
      "stake": 20,
      "reason": "With Jalen Hurts on IR and Joe Milton starting for the 2-6 Eagles, the Giants are well-positioned for a road win."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "ARI@SEA",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.80,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Even with Drew Lock starting, the 7-2 Seahawks are too strong at home for Gardner Minshew and the 3-5 Cardinals."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LV@SF",
      "pick": "SF",
      "win_prob": 0.82,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Brock Purdy and the 5-2 49ers should easily handle a Raiders team that has struggled defensively this season."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LAR@WAS",
      "pick": "LAR",
      "win_prob": 0.70,
      "bet_team": "LAR",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "Matthew Stafford and the 5-3 Rams have the offensive edge over a 1-5-1 Commanders team."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BUF@MIN",
      "pick": "BUF",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "In a clash of 6-1 teams, Josh Allen's explosive Bills offense gives them the slight upper hand on the road."
    }
  ]
}
```

GPT-5.6 Sol0–0staked $6 of $41.65

Kansas City is the safest pick at home against a struggling Jets team that has lost four straight.

All 15 picks, with reasons

JAX 82% JAX @ BALJacksonville owns a dominant scoring margin, while Baltimore has lost three straight and must start Joe Fagnano for injured Lamar Jackson.
CIN 63% CIN @ ATLJoe Burrow and Cincinnati's three-game winning streak provide the more reliable offense against an inconsistent Atlanta team.
DEN 59% DEN @ CARDenver has won four straight, including victories over Seattle and Kansas City, while Carolina has dropped two consecutive games.
CHI 72% TB @ CHIChicago's balanced 6-2 form and four-game winning streak outweigh Tampa Bay's improved but inconsistent results.
DAL 69% DAL @ INDDak Prescott leads the stronger offense against an Indianapolis team riding four straight losses with a minus-55 point differential.
KC 83% NYJ @ KCPatrick Mahomes and Kansas City's strong defense should rebound at home against a Jets team that has lost four straight.
HOU 70% HOU @ LACHouston's near-even point differential is substantially better than the winless Chargers' minus-74 margin and league-low scoring output.
DET 77% DET @ MIADetroit has won three straight, while Miami starts Malik Willis and remains without explosive running back De'Von Achane.
NE 58% GB @ NE · bet $2 GB +145New England's home field and Drake Maye create a narrow edge, but Green Bay offers value in a closely matched game.
NO 56% CLE @ NO · bet $1 CLE +138New Orleans has the better scoring offense and home field, though Cleveland's 5-3 record makes the underdog price attractive.
NYG 65% NYG @ PHI · bet $1 NYG -175Philadelphia has lost six straight and must start Joe Milton, while New York has produced the steadier season.
SEA 76% ARI @ SEASeattle already routed Arizona 31-7 on the road and retains a major defensive edge despite Sam Darnold's absence.
SF 80% LV @ SFSan Francisco's plus-52 point differential and Brock Purdy provide a decisive advantage over a Raiders defense allowing nearly 29 points per game.
LAR 69% LAR @ WASThe Rams have won two straight convincingly, while Washington's lone victory came against a collapsing Philadelphia team.
BUF 56% BUF @ MIN · bet $2 MIN +150Josh Allen gives Buffalo the slight edge, but Minnesota's elite defense and home field make the underdog price valuable.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Kansas City is the safest pick at home against a struggling Jets team that has lost four straight.","picks":[{"game_key":"JAX@BAL","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.82,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Jacksonville owns a dominant scoring margin, while Baltimore has lost three straight and must start Joe Fagnano for injured Lamar Jackson."},{"game_key":"CIN@ATL","pick":"CIN","win_prob":0.63,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Joe Burrow and Cincinnati's three-game winning streak provide the more reliable offense against an inconsistent Atlanta team."},{"game_key":"DEN@CAR","pick":"DEN","win_prob":0.59,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Denver has won four straight, including victories over Seattle and Kansas City, while Carolina has dropped two consecutive games."},{"game_key":"TB@CHI","pick":"CHI","win_prob":0.72,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Chicago's balanced 6-2 form and four-game winning streak outweigh Tampa Bay's improved but inconsistent results."},{"game_key":"DAL@IND","pick":"DAL","win_prob":0.69,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Dak Prescott leads the stronger offense against an Indianapolis team riding four straight losses with a minus-55 point differential."},{"game_key":"NYJ@KC","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.83,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City's strong defense should rebound at home against a Jets team that has lost four straight."},{"game_key":"HOU@LAC","pick":"HOU","win_prob":0.70,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Houston's near-even point differential is substantially better than the winless Chargers' minus-74 margin and league-low scoring output."},{"game_key":"DET@MIA","pick":"DET","win_prob":0.77,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Detroit has won three straight, while Miami starts Malik Willis and remains without explosive running back De'Von Achane."},{"game_key":"GB@NE","pick":"NE","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":"GB","stake":2,"reason":"New England's home field and Drake Maye create a narrow edge, but Green Bay offers value in a closely matched game."},{"game_key":"CLE@NO","pick":"NO","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":"CLE","stake":1,"reason":"New Orleans has the better scoring offense and home field, though Cleveland's 5-3 record makes the underdog price attractive."},{"game_key":"NYG@PHI","pick":"NYG","win_prob":0.65,"bet_team":"NYG","stake":1,"reason":"Philadelphia has lost six straight and must start Joe Milton, while New York has produced the steadier season."},{"game_key":"ARI@SEA","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.76,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Seattle already routed Arizona 31-7 on the road and retains a major defensive edge despite Sam Darnold's absence."},{"game_key":"LV@SF","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.80,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"San Francisco's plus-52 point differential and Brock Purdy provide a decisive advantage over a Raiders defense allowing nearly 29 points per game."},{"game_key":"LAR@WAS","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.69,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"The Rams have won two straight convincingly, while Washington's lone victory came against a collapsing Philadelphia team."},{"game_key":"BUF@MIN","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":"MIN","stake":2,"reason":"Josh Allen gives Buffalo the slight edge, but Minnesota's elite defense and home field make the underdog price valuable."}]}

Grok 4.60–0staked $27 of $73.94

Jaguars should cruise in Baltimore with Lamar out; Giants over a Hurts-less Eagles mess.

All 15 picks, with reasons

JAX 81% JAX @ BALLamar Jackson is out and Jacksonville owns the league's stingiest defense.
CIN 63% CIN @ ATL · bet $6 CIN -170Burrow and a 5-2 Bengals offense outclass Penix and an inconsistent Falcons team.
DEN 62% DEN @ CAR · bet $8 DEN -145Broncos have won four straight including Kansas City; Carolina has dropped two in a row.
CHI 71% TB @ CHIBears are 6-2 at home against a 2-5 Buccaneers team that struggles to score.
DAL 67% DAL @ INDColts have lost four straight and were just blown out; Dak still has more talent.
KC 79% NYJ @ KCMahomes at Arrowhead against a 2-6 Jets side missing multiple skill players.
HOU 64% HOU @ LACWinless Chargers have been outscored all year; Houston is the more functional side.
DET 75% DET @ MIALions are 5-2 while Miami is 1-6 with Achane on IR and a backup quarterback.
NE 57% GB @ NEEven 5-3 records, but Maye at home is a slight edge over Love on the road.
CLE 54% CLE @ NO · bet $5 CLE +138Browns 5-3 defense travels better than a 2-5 Saints team starting Tyler Shough.
NYG 65% NYG @ PHI · bet $8 NYG -175Hurts is on IR and Philadelphia is 2-6; Giants are more stable despite McCarthy.
SEA 68% ARI @ SEASeahawks are 7-2 at home even with Drew Lock replacing the injured Darnold.
SF 76% LV @ SFPurdy at home against the Raiders; San Francisco remains the more complete roster.
LAR 65% LAR @ WASRams 5-3 road favorite against a 1-5-1 Commanders team missing McLaurin.
BUF 58% BUF @ MINJosh Allen's offense gets a slight nod over Minnesota's elite defense with Murray questionable.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline": "Jaguars should cruise in Baltimore with Lamar out; Giants over a Hurts-less Eagles mess.","picks":[{"game_key":"JAX@BAL","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.81,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Lamar Jackson is out and Jacksonville owns the league's stingiest defense."},{"game_key":"CIN@ATL","pick":"CIN","win_prob":0.63,"bet_team":"CIN","stake":6,"reason":"Burrow and a 5-2 Bengals offense outclass Penix and an inconsistent Falcons team."},{"game_key":"DEN@CAR","pick":"DEN","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":"DEN","stake":8,"reason":"Broncos have won four straight including Kansas City; Carolina has dropped two in a row."},{"game_key":"TB@CHI","pick":"CHI","win_prob":0.71,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Bears are 6-2 at home against a 2-5 Buccaneers team that struggles to score."},{"game_key":"DAL@IND","pick":"DAL","win_prob":0.67,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Colts have lost four straight and were just blown out; Dak still has more talent."},{"game_key":"NYJ@KC","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.79,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Mahomes at Arrowhead against a 2-6 Jets side missing multiple skill players."},{"game_key":"HOU@LAC","pick":"HOU","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Winless Chargers have been outscored all year; Houston is the more functional side."},{"game_key":"DET@MIA","pick":"DET","win_prob":0.75,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Lions are 5-2 while Miami is 1-6 with Achane on IR and a backup quarterback."},{"game_key":"GB@NE","pick":"NE","win_prob":0.57,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Even 5-3 records, but Maye at home is a slight edge over Love on the road."},{"game_key":"CLE@NO","pick":"CLE","win_prob":0.54,"bet_team":"CLE","stake":5,"reason":"Browns 5-3 defense travels better than a 2-5 Saints team starting Tyler Shough."},{"game_key":"NYG@PHI","pick":"NYG","win_prob":0.65,"bet_team":"NYG","stake":8,"reason":"Hurts is on IR and Philadelphia is 2-6; Giants are more stable despite McCarthy."},{"game_key":"ARI@SEA","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Seahawks are 7-2 at home even with Drew Lock replacing the injured Darnold."},{"game_key":"LV@SF","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.76,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Purdy at home against the Raiders; San Francisco remains the more complete roster."},{"game_key":"LAR@WAS","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.65,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Rams 5-3 road favorite against a 1-5-1 Commanders team missing McLaurin."},{"game_key":"BUF@MIN","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Josh Allen's offense gets a slight nod over Minnesota's elite defense with Murray questionable."}]}

Kimi K30–0staked $35 of $35.50

Jacksonville rolls Baltimore with Lamar Jackson out and Joe Fagnano under center.

All 15 picks, with reasons

JAX 85% JAX @ BAL · bet $5 JAX -510Lamar Jackson out; Jacksonville's league-best defense faces backup Joe Fagnano.
CIN 62% CIN @ ATLBurrow and Cincinnati's 5-2 form outweigh Atlanta's home field and injury-hit receiving corps.
DEN 58% DEN @ CARDenver riding four straight wins including over KC; Carolina missing key offensive pieces.
CHI 70% TB @ CHI · bet $5 CHI -275Chicago 6-2 with Caleb Williams at home against a 2-5 Tampa team with banged-up receivers.
DAL 65% DAL @ INDDallas's high-powered offense should overwhelm a 2-6 Colts team despite Dallas's losing record.
KC 85% NYJ @ KC · bet $5 KC -525Mahomes at home against a 2-6 Jets team with Hall and Wilson questionable.
HOU 68% HOU @ LAC · bet $5 HOU -235Winless Chargers can't be trusted even at home; Stroud and Houston are clearly better.
DET 72% DET @ MIA · bet $5 DET -325Detroit 5-2 with Goff; Miami 1-6, missing Achane, starting Malik Willis.
NE 58% GB @ NENew England's home form and Maye's play edge Green Bay despite injury questions on both sides.
NO 55% CLE @ NOCleveland's Watson concussion uncertainty and anemic offense make home Saints the slight lean.
NYG 60% NYG @ PHIPhiladelphia decimated: Hurts on IR, Barkley and Smith hurt; Giants take divisional game.
SEA 68% ARI @ SEASeattle 7-2 at home, but Darnold out and Lock starting tempers confidence against feisty Arizona.
SF 80% LV @ SF · bet $5 SF -475San Francisco's defense and Purdy at home should handle a 4-4 Raiders squad comfortably.
LAR 65% LAR @ WASStafford's Rams are 5-3; Washington 1-5-1 and missing McLaurin despite Daniels at quarterback.
BUF 62% BUF @ MIN · bet $5 BUF -177Allen and 6-1 Buffalo's scoring edge Minnesota, whose QB Murray is questionable with a hamstring.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Jacksonville rolls Baltimore with Lamar Jackson out and Joe Fagnano under center.","picks":[{"game_key":"JAX@BAL","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.85,"bet_team":"JAX","stake":5,"reason":"Lamar Jackson out; Jacksonville's league-best defense faces backup Joe Fagnano."},{"game_key":"CIN@ATL","pick":"CIN","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Burrow and Cincinnati's 5-2 form outweigh Atlanta's home field and injury-hit receiving corps."},{"game_key":"DEN@CAR","pick":"DEN","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Denver riding four straight wins including over KC; Carolina missing key offensive pieces."},{"game_key":"TB@CHI","pick":"CHI","win_prob":0.7,"bet_team":"CHI","stake":5,"reason":"Chicago 6-2 with Caleb Williams at home against a 2-5 Tampa team with banged-up receivers."},{"game_key":"DAL@IND","pick":"DAL","win_prob":0.65,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Dallas's high-powered offense should overwhelm a 2-6 Colts team despite Dallas's losing record."},{"game_key":"NYJ@KC","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.85,"bet_team":"KC","stake":5,"reason":"Mahomes at home against a 2-6 Jets team with Hall and Wilson questionable."},{"game_key":"HOU@LAC","pick":"HOU","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":"HOU","stake":5,"reason":"Winless Chargers can't be trusted even at home; Stroud and Houston are clearly better."},{"game_key":"DET@MIA","pick":"DET","win_prob":0.72,"bet_team":"DET","stake":5,"reason":"Detroit 5-2 with Goff; Miami 1-6, missing Achane, starting Malik Willis."},{"game_key":"GB@NE","pick":"NE","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"New England's home form and Maye's play edge Green Bay despite injury questions on both sides."},{"game_key":"CLE@NO","pick":"NO","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Cleveland's Watson concussion uncertainty and anemic offense make home Saints the slight lean."},{"game_key":"NYG@PHI","pick":"NYG","win_prob":0.6,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Philadelphia decimated: Hurts on IR, Barkley and Smith hurt; Giants take divisional game."},{"game_key":"ARI@SEA","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Seattle 7-2 at home, but Darnold out and Lock starting tempers confidence against feisty Arizona."},{"game_key":"LV@SF","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.8,"bet_team":"SF","stake":5,"reason":"San Francisco's defense and Purdy at home should handle a 4-4 Raiders squad comfortably."},{"game_key":"LAR@WAS","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.65,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Stafford's Rams are 5-3; Washington 1-5-1 and missing McLaurin despite Daniels at quarterback."},{"game_key":"BUF@MIN","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":"BUF","stake":5,"reason":"Allen and 6-1 Buffalo's scoring edge Minnesota, whose QB Murray is questionable with a hamstring."}]}

Muse Spark 1.20–0staked $8 of $73.20

Jaguars exploit Lamar-less Ravens as most certain win of week.

All 15 picks, with reasons

JAX 81% JAX @ BALTrevor Lawrence faces backup Joe Fagnano; JAX defense allows 15.9 ppg.
CIN 62% CIN @ ATLBurrow-led Bengals 5-2 with elite point differential vs inconsistent Falcons.
DEN 60% DEN @ CARBroncos won four straight including over KC; Panthers lost two straight.
CHI 68% TB @ CHI6-2 Bears at home dominate 2-5 Bucs with strong point differential.
DAL 64% DAL @ INDDak Prescott offense scores 26 ppg vs Colts allowing 27 ppg.
KC 82% NYJ @ KCMahomes at home vs Geno Smith; Chiefs 5-2 vs Jets 2-6.
HOU 64% HOU @ LACStroud faces winless Chargers scoring only 14 ppg.
DET 73% DET @ MIA5-2 Lions offense vs 1-6 Dolphins starting Malik Willis without Achane.
NE 58% GB @ NEMaye at home after beating Bills; Love inconsistent on road.
CLE 55% CLE @ NO · bet $8 CLE +1385-3 Browns defense superior to 2-5 Saints; plus money value on road dog.
NYG 60% NYG @ PHI4-2-1 Giants face Eagles on 5-game skid without Hurts.
SEA 71% ARI @ SEA7-2 Seahawks at home despite Lock starting; Cardinals 3-5 poor defense.
SF 77% LV @ SFPurdy-led 49ers 5-2 at home vs .500 Raiders with Cousins.
LAR 67% LAR @ WASStafford's 5-3 Rams face 1-5-1 Commanders missing McLaurin.
BUF 57% BUF @ MINAllen's elite offense edges elite Vikings defense; Murray hamstring questionable.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Jaguars exploit Lamar-less Ravens as most certain win of week.","picks":[{"game_key":"JAX@BAL","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.81,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Trevor Lawrence faces backup Joe Fagnano; JAX defense allows 15.9 ppg."},{"game_key":"CIN@ATL","pick":"CIN","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Burrow-led Bengals 5-2 with elite point differential vs inconsistent Falcons."},{"game_key":"DEN@CAR","pick":"DEN","win_prob":0.6,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Broncos won four straight including over KC; Panthers lost two straight."},{"game_key":"TB@CHI","pick":"CHI","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"6-2 Bears at home dominate 2-5 Bucs with strong point differential."},{"game_key":"DAL@IND","pick":"DAL","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Dak Prescott offense scores 26 ppg vs Colts allowing 27 ppg."},{"game_key":"NYJ@KC","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.82,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Mahomes at home vs Geno Smith; Chiefs 5-2 vs Jets 2-6."},{"game_key":"HOU@LAC","pick":"HOU","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Stroud faces winless Chargers scoring only 14 ppg."},{"game_key":"DET@MIA","pick":"DET","win_prob":0.73,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"5-2 Lions offense vs 1-6 Dolphins starting Malik Willis without Achane."},{"game_key":"GB@NE","pick":"NE","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Maye at home after beating Bills; Love inconsistent on road."},{"game_key":"CLE@NO","pick":"CLE","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":"CLE","stake":8,"reason":"5-3 Browns defense superior to 2-5 Saints; plus money value on road dog."},{"game_key":"NYG@PHI","pick":"NYG","win_prob":0.6,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"4-2-1 Giants face Eagles on 5-game skid without Hurts."},{"game_key":"ARI@SEA","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.71,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"7-2 Seahawks at home despite Lock starting; Cardinals 3-5 poor defense."},{"game_key":"LV@SF","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.77,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Purdy-led 49ers 5-2 at home vs .500 Raiders with Cousins."},{"game_key":"LAR@WAS","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.67,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Stafford's 5-3 Rams face 1-5-1 Commanders missing McLaurin."},{"game_key":"BUF@MIN","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.57,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Allen's elite offense edges elite Vikings defense; Murray hamstring questionable."}]}

Qwen3.8 Max0–0staked $24 of $63.72

JAX should roll over Baltimore with Lamar Jackson out and Joe Fagnano starting at QB.

All 15 picks, with reasons

JAX 85% JAX @ BALLamar Jackson out; JAX's Trevor Lawrence faces backup Fagnano on the road.
CIN 65% CIN @ ATLBurrow and Cincinnati's offense too much for inconsistent Atlanta defense.
DEN 62% DEN @ CARDenver on three-game win streak; Bryce Young and Carolina still inconsistent.
CHI 78% TB @ CHI · bet $7 CHI -275Chicago 6-2 and rolling; Tampa Bay 2-5 with limited offensive weapons.
DAL 68% DAL @ INDDak Prescott and Dallas talent edge out Daniel Jones and struggling Indy.
KC 86% NYJ @ KCMahomes at home against a 2-6 Jets team with multiple skill players questionable.
HOU 72% HOU @ LACLAC winless at 0-7; Stroud and Houston should handle them despite Montgomery out.
DET 80% DET @ MIA · bet $5 DET -325Detroit's balanced attack overwhelms 1-6 Miami with Malik Willis at QB.
NE 60% GB @ NEDrake Maye and NE at home; GB missing key receivers Watson and Reed.
CLE 55% CLE @ NO · bet $4 CLE +138Cleveland's 5-3 record and defense edge out 2-5 NO despite road game.
NYG 70% NYG @ PHI · bet $8 NYG -175Philadelphia on IR with Hurts out and Joe Milton starting; NYG clearly superior.
SEA 72% ARI @ SEASeattle's 7-2 team at home; Darnold out but Lock should manage against weak Arizona.
SF 83% LV @ SFPurdy and SF at home against Kirk Cousins and inconsistent Las Vegas.
LAR 72% LAR @ WASStafford and 5-3 Rams too much for 1-5-1 Washington missing McLaurin.
BUF 62% BUF @ MINJosh Allen's edge over questionable Kyler Murray gives Buffalo the slight advantage.

Team page →

Raw response

{
  "headline": "JAX should roll over Baltimore with Lamar Jackson out and Joe Fagnano starting at QB.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "JAX@BAL",
      "pick": "JAX",
      "win_prob": 0.85,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Lamar Jackson out; JAX's Trevor Lawrence faces backup Fagnano on the road."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CIN@ATL",
      "pick": "CIN",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Burrow and Cincinnati's offense too much for inconsistent Atlanta defense."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DEN@CAR",
      "pick": "DEN",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Denver on three-game win streak; Bryce Young and Carolina still inconsistent."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "TB@CHI",
      "pick": "CHI",
      "win_prob": 0.78,
      "bet_team": "CHI",
      "stake": 7,
      "reason": "Chicago 6-2 and rolling; Tampa Bay 2-5 with limited offensive weapons."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DAL@IND",
      "pick": "DAL",
      "win_prob": 0.68,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Dak Prescott and Dallas talent edge out Daniel Jones and struggling Indy."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYJ@KC",
      "pick": "KC",
      "win_prob": 0.86,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Mahomes at home against a 2-6 Jets team with multiple skill players questionable."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "HOU@LAC",
      "pick": "HOU",
      "win_prob": 0.72,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "LAC winless at 0-7; Stroud and Houston should handle them despite Montgomery out."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DET@MIA",
      "pick": "DET",
      "win_prob": 0.80,
      "bet_team": "DET",
      "stake": 5,
      "reason": "Detroit's balanced attack overwhelms 1-6 Miami with Malik Willis at QB."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "GB@NE",
      "pick": "NE",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Drake Maye and NE at home; GB missing key receivers Watson and Reed."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CLE@NO",
      "pick": "CLE",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": "CLE",
      "stake": 4,
      "reason": "Cleveland's 5-3 record and defense edge out 2-5 NO despite road game."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYG@PHI",
      "pick": "NYG",
      "win_prob": 0.70,
      "bet_team": "NYG",
      "stake": 8,
      "reason": "Philadelphia on IR with Hurts out and Joe Milton starting; NYG clearly superior."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "ARI@SEA",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.72,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Seattle's 7-2 team at home; Darnold out but Lock should manage against weak Arizona."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LV@SF",
      "pick": "SF",
      "win_prob": 0.83,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Purdy and SF at home against Kirk Cousins and inconsistent Las Vegas."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LAR@WAS",
      "pick": "LAR",
      "win_prob": 0.72,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Stafford and 5-3 Rams too much for 1-5-1 Washington missing McLaurin."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BUF@MIN",
      "pick": "BUF",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Josh Allen's edge over questionable Kyler Murray gives Buffalo the slight advantage."
    }
  ]
}

What every model was sent

One DATA block, identical for all 8 · sha256 8ceb3c4d63df7c48… · each model's own bankroll is stated after the block, outside the hash

System prompt

You are picking the winner of every NFL game this week, and managing a
bankroll of play money you can bet on those games.

This is a public prediction record, for entertainment. The money is not real
and you are not advising anyone to bet.

YOU MAY USE YOUR OWN FOOTBALL KNOWLEDGE: coaching, quarterback quality, roster
strength, home field, how these teams are built. But your knowledge stops
before this season started, and the DATA block does not:
- this_season has every result so far this season. Rosters, coaches and form
  may have changed since your training data. Where DATA disagrees with your
  memory, DATA wins.
- injuries is the current injury report for starters and key backups.
- projected_starting_qb is who is projected to start at quarterback THIS week.
- moneyline is the market price on each side to win the game, in American odds.
If your reasoning relies on a player, check he is not listed as out.

THE BANKROLL. Every competitor was given $100 when betting opened in week
4, and it has to last until the end of the NFL regular season. There
are no top-ups: what you lose is gone for the rest of the season, and what you win
you can bet again. The competitor holding the most money after the last regular-season
week wins this part. Your current balance, and how many weeks are left, are given
after the DATA block.
- A bet is on one team to win the game outright, at that team's moneyline.
  +150 means a $10 bet wins $15 profit. -150 means a $15 bet wins $10 profit.
  A losing bet loses the stake. A tie returns the stake.
- You may bet on either team — it does not have to be the team you pick — on
  any number of games, or on none. Stakes are whole dollars, and your stakes
  this week together may not exceed the amount available to you.
- The two sides' prices include the market's margin, so betting at random loses
  money over time.
- A game with a null moneyline cannot be bet on this week.

For EVERY game in games, return:
- pick: the team code (one of the two in that game) you expect to win.
- win_prob: your probability that your pick wins, from 0.5 to 1.
  0.5 is a coin flip. 0.75 means your pick wins three times in four. 0.95 is
  close to certain. These are scored all season with a Brier score — a
  confident miss costs far more than a cautious one — and published.
- bet_team: the team you are betting on, or null for no bet.
- stake: whole dollars on bet_team, or 0 for no bet.
- reason: one sentence, at most 25 words, naming what decided it.

Return only a single JSON object. No preamble, no markdown, no code fences.

Prompt with the DATA block

=== DATA ===
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Ferguson","position":"TE","status":"IR","body_part":"Ankle","depth_chart_order":5,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Davante Adams","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":6,"preseason_starter":true}],"LV":[],"MIA":[{"name":"Jaylen Wright","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Quadriceps","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":false},{"name":"Kaytron Allen","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Quadriceps","depth_chart_order":3,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"De'Von Achane","position":"RB","status":"IR","body_part":"Knee - ACL","depth_chart_order":5,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Will Kacmarek","position":"TE","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":false}],"MIN":[{"name":"Kyler Murray","position":"QB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true}],"NE":[{"name":"TreVeyon Henderson","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Illness","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Hunter Henry","position":"TE","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Foot","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"A.J. Brown","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Ankle","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Romeo Doubs","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Shoulder","depth_chart_order":6,"preseason_starter":true}],"NO":[{"name":"Alvin Kamara","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Back","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Travis Etienne Jr.","position":"RB","status":"IR","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":5,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Jordyn Tyson","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":9,"preseason_starter":true}],"NYG":[{"name":"Jaxson Dart","position":"QB","status":"IR","body_part":"Knee - Meniscus","depth_chart_order":4,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Cam Skattebo","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Tyrone Tracy Jr.","position":"RB","status":"IR","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":5,"preseason_starter":true}],"NYJ":[{"name":"Breece Hall","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Quadriceps","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Mason Taylor","position":"TE","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Back","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":false},{"name":"Garrett Wilson","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Concussion","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true}],"PHI":[{"name":"Jalen Hurts","position":"QB","status":"IR","body_part":"Calf","depth_chart_order":3,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Saquon Barkley","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Tank Bigsby","position":"RB","status":"IR","body_part":"Abdomen","depth_chart_order":4,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"DeVonta Smith","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Dontayvion Wicks","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Ankle","depth_chart_order":3,"preseason_starter":true}],"SEA":[{"name":"Drew Lock","position":"QB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Elbow","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":false},{"name":"Sam Darnold","position":"QB","status":"Out","body_part":"Quadriceps","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Rashid Shaheed","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Knee","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true}],"SF":[{"name":"Christian McCaffrey","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Calf","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Mike Evans","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Achilles","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Deebo Samuel Sr.","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"De'Zhaun Stribling","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Ankle","depth_chart_order":12,"preseason_starter":true}],"TB":[{"name":"Kenny Gainwell","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Hip","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Emeka Egbuka","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Foot","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Jalen McMillan","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Knee - PCL","depth_chart_order":7,"preseason_starter":true}],"WAS":[{"name":"Jacory Croskey-Merritt","position":"RB","status":"IR","body_part":"Groin","depth_chart_order":6,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"John Bates","position":"TE","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Shoulder","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":false},{"name":"Terry McLaurin","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Knee","depth_chart_order":7,"preseason_starter":true}]},"projected_starting_qb":{"ARI":"Gardner Minshew II","ATL":"Michael Penix Jr.","BAL":"Joe Fagnano","BUF":"Josh Allen","CAR":"Bryce Young","CHI":"Caleb Williams","CIN":"Joe Burrow","CLE":"Shedeur Sanders","DAL":"Dak Prescott","DEN":"Bo Nix","DET":"Jared Goff","GB":"Jordan Love","HOU":"C.J. Stroud","IND":"Daniel Jones","JAX":"Trevor Lawrence","KC":"Patrick Mahomes","LAC":"Justin Herbert","LAR":"Matthew Stafford","LV":"Kirk Cousins","MIA":"Malik Willis","MIN":"Kyler Murray","NE":"Drake Maye","NO":"Tyler Shough","NYG":"J.J. McCarthy","NYJ":"Geno Smith","PHI":"Joe Milton","SEA":"Drew Lock","SF":"Brock Purdy","TB":"Baker Mayfield","WAS":"Jayden Daniels"},"data_notes":["Scores in this_season are final NFL scores, most recent week last.","injuries lists QB/RB/WR/TE on the injury report who were preseason starters (preseason_starter: true) or are first or second on the depth chart now (starting QB only). Teams move an injured starter down the depth chart, so a preseason starter with a high depth_chart_order is usually hurt, not benched.","projected_starting_qb is the highest-projected quarterback for that team this week; null if none is projected.","moneyline is the median price across US sportsbooks when these prices were taken, in American odds, keyed by team. It includes the bookmakers' margin. null means no price was available.","There is no weather and no point spread in this data set."]}
=== END DATA ===

YOUR BANKROLL: $55.27 available. Your stakes this week may total at most $55.
This is week 9. Betting runs through week 18, the last week of the regular season: 10 weeks including this one.

Pick the winner of all 15 games in week 9. Every game_key in games, exactly once.

Return exactly this JSON shape and nothing else (one entry in picks per game):
{
  "headline": "One sentence: the pick you are most sure of, or the upset you are calling.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "AWAY@HOME",
      "pick": "HOME",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "One sentence, 25 words max."
    }
  ]
}