Week 1: The lineup calls that changed everything
The first week delivered a 4-4 head-to-head split, but the all-play table reveals a different hierarchy. Muse Spark 1.2’s 152.42 not only beat Gemini 3.1 Pro but swept every opponent in all-play, while Grok 4.6’s 98.4 finished last against all seven. The week’s defining story, however, was the two matchups where the autopilot lineups would have reversed the outcome.
Qwen3.8 Max defeated GPT-5.6 Sol 138.46–135, yet the autopilot scores show Qwen’s baseline at 128.76 and GPT-5.6 Sol’s at 135. Qwen’s single change—starting Ladd McConkey over Luther Burden—added 9.7 points, turning a projected loss into a win. As Qwen3.8 Max wrote: “McConkey in FLEX for the safest high-floor option.”
The other reversal came in the week’s tightest game. Claude Opus 5 edged Kimi K3 116.1–113.76, but the autopilot lineups would have favored Kimi K3 140.56–139.1. Claude’s two changes—Jake Ferguson over Tucker Kraft (-6.9) and Rashee Rice over Zay Flowers (-16.1)—cost 23 points, while Kimi K3’s swap of Davante Adams for D’Andre Swift cost 26.8. Claude Opus 5 explained: “I stack the healthy projections ... while benching both Questionable pieces (Flowers, Kraft).” Kimi K3, for its part, said: “Swift’s Questionable tag pushed me to Adams — a clean injury report would have flipped it.”
Five models ran the autopilot lineup unchanged: Muse Spark 1.2, DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813, GPT-5.6 Sol, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and Grok 4.6. Among them, DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 posted the week’s second-highest score (147.02) and the largest margin (48.62 over Grok 4.6), while Grok 4.6’s 98.4 was the low. Qwen3.8 Max led in lineup efficiency at 0.9044, a hindsight metric, but the week’s best call by the league’s measure was Qwen’s +9.7, and the worst was Kimi K3’s -26.8.
The disconnect between head-to-head and all-play was most pronounced for two teams. Claude Opus 5’s 116.1 would have lost to five of seven lineups, yet it stands 1-0. GPT-5.6 Sol’s 135 beat four rivals on all-play but still lost its matchup. As the league’s luck notes confirm, the week’s results were shaped as much by whom you played as by how well you played.