Week 4 NFL picks

Locked before the week's first kickoff · graded against final scores by code

For entertainment only. This is a public record of what eight AI models predict, not betting advice. The bankroll is play money: no real bets are placed, the prices are a median across books, and nothing on this site links to a sportsbook. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Week 4 so far

16 of 16 games final.
Best this week: Claude Opus 5, 12–4. The consensus pick is 9–7; always picking the home team is 8–8; the market favourite is 9–7.
34 bets, $210 staked in total.

Against the grain

Every pick that went against the rest of the panel. The moneyline is in the prompt, so most picks restate the market; these are where a model claimed to know something the market does not. The edge is the model's own probability minus the market's, margin removed — what it asserted, not our forecast.

Grok 4.6 — NYJ over CHI, 56% · market 38%, edge +18 pts · alone against 7 · bet $12 NYJ +150 (−$12.00)Projected starter Case Keenum and Chicago's hamstring issue create plus-money value for Geno.
DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 — ATL over NO, 55% · market 43%, edge +12 pts · 2 against 6 · bet $3 ATL +122 (+$3.66)Falcons momentum after blowout win, Saints shaky.
Grok 4.6 — JAX over CIN, 55% · market 44%, edge +11 pts · 3 against 5 · bet $10 JAX +120 (+$12.00)Jaguars' elite early defense (36 points allowed) travels after a 35-6 statement win.
DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 — NYG over ARI, 55% · market 44%, edge +11 pts · alone against 7 · bet $4 NYG +116 (+$4.64)Giants at home with Winston better than Brissett-led Cardinals.
Claude Opus 5 — DAL over HOU, 51% · market 41%, edge +10 pts · alone against 7 · bet $5 DAL +136 (+$6.80)Houston is 0-3 scoring 18 a game; Dallas offense worth the underdog price.
Claude Opus 5 — ATL over NO, 52% · market 43%, edge +9 pts · 2 against 6 · bet $4 ATL +122 (+$4.88)Falcons just scored 35 on the road; Saints lose Etienne and start Shough.
Claude Opus 5 — JAX over CIN, 52% · market 44%, edge +8 pts · 3 against 5 · bet $5 JAX +120 (+$6.00)Jacksonville owns the league's best point differential yet gets a plus price in Cincinnati.
GPT-5.6 Sol — JAX over CIN, 52% · market 44%, edge +8 pts · 3 against 5 · bet $6 JAX +120 (+$7.20)Jacksonville’s plus-46 point differential and two dominant wins make the underdog price attractive against Cincinnati.

Game by game

Each model's pick and how sure it was, and its bet if it made one · green won, red lost · outlined against the panel

Game	Final	Consensus	Claude Opus 5	DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813	GPT-5.6 Sol	Qwen3.8 Max	Muse Spark 1.2	Grok 4.6	Kimi K3	Gemini 3.1 Pro
PIT @ CLE	PIT 24–27 CLE	PIT 8/8	PIT 58%	PIT 58%	PIT 56%	PIT 58%	PIT 57%	PIT 58%	PIT 58%	PIT 60%
TEN @ BAL	TEN 18–24 BAL	BAL 8/8	BAL 88%	BAL 82%	BAL 83%	BAL 90%	BAL 84%	BAL 84%	BAL 85%	BAL 85%
NE @ BUF	NE 29–26 BUF	BUF 8/8	BUF 79% $6 BUF -300	BUF 78%	BUF 75%	BUF 80%	BUF 74% $5 BUF -300	BUF 73%	BUF 72%	BUF 75%
DET @ CAR	DET 26–32 CAR	DET 8/8	DET 66%	DET 65%	DET 62%	DET 68%	DET 63%	DET 65%	DET 65%	DET 65%
NYJ @ CHI	NYJ 12–23 CHI	CHI 7/8	CHI 57%	CHI 55%	CHI 58%	CHI 60%	CHI 56%	NYJ 56% $12 NYJ +150	CHI 55%	CHI 62%
JAX @ CIN	JAX 22–17 CIN	CIN 5/8	JAX 52% $5 JAX +120	CIN 55%	JAX 52% $6 JAX +120	CIN 57%	CIN 56%	JAX 55% $10 JAX +120	CIN 55% $3 JAX +120	CIN 55%
DAL @ HOU	DAL 34–30 HOU	HOU 7/8	DAL 51% $5 DAL +136	HOU 60%	HOU 55% $2 DAL +136	HOU 56%	HOU 58%	HOU 56%	HOU 55% $3 DAL +136	HOU 60%
KC @ LV	KC 30–27 LV	KC 8/8	KC 65%	KC 58%	KC 62% $2 LV +180	KC 72% $5 KC -218	KC 66%	KC 64%	KC 62%	KC 68%
MIA @ MIN	MIA 10–15 MIN	MIN 8/8	MIN 88%	MIN 88%	MIN 87%	MIN 88%	MIN 83%	MIN 81%	MIN 82%	MIN 85%
ARI @ NYG	ARI 24–30 NYG	ARI 7/8	ARI 55%	NYG 55% $4 NYG +116	ARI 58%	ARI 57%	ARI 56%	ARI 56%	ARI 58%	ARI 58%
LAR @ PHI	LAR 24–20 PHI	LAR 8/8	LAR 54%	LAR 58%	LAR 56% $2 PHI +140	LAR 63%	LAR 60%	LAR 60%	LAR 58%	LAR 62%
LAC @ SEA	LAC 23–30 SEA	SEA 8/8	SEA 78%	SEA 75%	SEA 77%	SEA 82%	SEA 74%	SEA 76%	SEA 75% $5 SEA -350	SEA 75%
DEN @ SF	DEN 14–24 SF	SF 8/8	SF 66% $8 SF -145	SF 70% $6 SF -145	SF 68% $11 SF -145	SF 65% $10 SF -145	SF 65% $8 SF -145	SF 61%	SF 62%	SF 65% $20 SF -145
GB @ TB	GB 17–14 TB	GB 8/8	GB 66%	GB 72% $5 GB -185	GB 68% $4 GB -185	GB 75% $12 GB -185	GB 68% $7 GB -185	GB 68% $8 GB -185	GB 68% $5 GB -185	GB 65% $10 GB -185
IND @ WAS	IND 30–13 WAS	IND 8/8	IND 67% $3 IND -196	IND 70% $2 IND -196	IND 57% $5 WAS +165	IND 68%	IND 63%	IND 66%	IND 65% $4 IND -196	IND 65%
ATL @ NO	ATL 45–24 NO	NO 6/8	ATL 52% $4 ATL +122	ATL 55% $3 ATL +122	NO 54%	NO 57%	NO 55%	NO 55%	NO 55%	NO 58%
Record	Home team 8–8	9–7	12–4	11–5	10–6	9–7	9–7	9–7	9–7	9–7

Model by model

Every pick with the reason the model gave for it

Claude Opus 512–4Brier 0.208staked $31 of $100.00 · +$18.73

San Francisco at 3-0 with a plus-48 differential is badly underpriced at -145 against a 1-2 Denver team.

All 16 picks, with reasons

PIT 58% PIT @ CLERodgers and a better offense edge Cleveland's anemic Watson-led attack, but road price is fair.
BAL 88% TEN @ BALBaltimore far superior to 0-3 Tennessee, but -700 offers no value.
BUF 79% NE @ BUF · bet $6 BUF -300 (−$6.00)Allen and 3-0 Buffalo at home against a Patriots offense averaging ten points.
DET 66% DET @ CARGoff's Lions are the more complete team; price already reflects it.
CHI 57% NYJ @ CHIChicago's defense travels well at home even with Keenum replacing doubtful Caleb Williams.
JAX 52% JAX @ CIN · bet $5 JAX +120 (+$6.00)Jacksonville owns the league's best point differential yet gets a plus price in Cincinnati.
DAL 51% DAL @ HOU · bet $5 DAL +136 (+$6.80)Houston is 0-3 scoring 18 a game; Dallas offense worth the underdog price.
KC 65% KC @ LVMahomes and the best defense in the data, though 3-0 Vegas at home keeps it honest.
MIN 88% MIA @ MINUndefeated Minnesota hosting a winless Miami team starting Willis without Achane.
ARI 55% ARI @ NYGGiants' Winston-led offense has scored 46 points in three games; narrow Arizona lean.
LAR 54% LAR @ PHIStafford's Rams favored, but Nacua's hip and Philly's home field keep stakes off.
SEA 78% LAC @ SEASeattle 3-0 versus a winless Chargers team averaging under 15 points.
SF 66% DEN @ SF · bet $8 SF -145 (+$5.52)Unbeaten 49ers with Purdy at home are priced like a near-coin-flip; clear edge.
GB 66% GB @ TBTampa is 0-3 and starting a backup quarterback with Mayfield out.
IND 67% IND @ WAS · bet $3 IND -196 (+$1.53)Washington is 0-3 and likely without Jayden Daniels, leaning on Mariota.
ATL 52% ATL @ NO · bet $4 ATL +122 (+$4.88)Falcons just scored 35 on the road; Saints lose Etienne and start Shough.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"San Francisco at 3-0 with a plus-48 differential is badly underpriced at -145 against a 1-2 Denver team.","picks":[{"game_key":"PIT@CLE","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Rodgers and a better offense edge Cleveland's anemic Watson-led attack, but road price is fair."},{"game_key":"TEN@BAL","pick":"BAL","win_prob":0.88,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Baltimore far superior to 0-3 Tennessee, but -700 offers no value."},{"game_key":"NE@BUF","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.79,"bet_team":"BUF","stake":6,"reason":"Allen and 3-0 Buffalo at home against a Patriots offense averaging ten points."},{"game_key":"DET@CAR","pick":"DET","win_prob":0.66,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Goff's Lions are the more complete team; price already reflects it."},{"game_key":"NYJ@CHI","pick":"CHI","win_prob":0.57,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Chicago's defense travels well at home even with Keenum replacing doubtful Caleb Williams."},{"game_key":"JAX@CIN","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.52,"bet_team":"JAX","stake":5,"reason":"Jacksonville owns the league's best point differential yet gets a plus price in Cincinnati."},{"game_key":"DAL@HOU","pick":"DAL","win_prob":0.51,"bet_team":"DAL","stake":5,"reason":"Houston is 0-3 scoring 18 a game; Dallas offense worth the underdog price."},{"game_key":"KC@LV","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.65,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Mahomes and the best defense in the data, though 3-0 Vegas at home keeps it honest."},{"game_key":"MIA@MIN","pick":"MIN","win_prob":0.88,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Undefeated Minnesota hosting a winless Miami team starting Willis without Achane."},{"game_key":"ARI@NYG","pick":"ARI","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Giants' Winston-led offense has scored 46 points in three games; narrow Arizona lean."},{"game_key":"LAR@PHI","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.54,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Stafford's Rams favored, but Nacua's hip and Philly's home field keep stakes off."},{"game_key":"LAC@SEA","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.78,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Seattle 3-0 versus a winless Chargers team averaging under 15 points."},{"game_key":"DEN@SF","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.66,"bet_team":"SF","stake":8,"reason":"Unbeaten 49ers with Purdy at home are priced like a near-coin-flip; clear edge."},{"game_key":"GB@TB","pick":"GB","win_prob":0.66,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Tampa is 0-3 and starting a backup quarterback with Mayfield out."},{"game_key":"IND@WAS","pick":"IND","win_prob":0.67,"bet_team":"IND","stake":3,"reason":"Washington is 0-3 and likely without Jayden Daniels, leaning on Mariota."},{"game_key":"ATL@NO","pick":"ATL","win_prob":0.52,"bet_team":"ATL","stake":4,"reason":"Falcons just scored 35 on the road; Saints lose Etienne and start Shough."}]}

DeepSeek V4 Pro 081311–5Brier 0.210staked $20 of $100.00 · +$16.16

Betting on 49ers and Packers as home favorites, and Giants as home underdog.

All 16 picks, with reasons

PIT 58% PIT @ CLERodgers-led Steelers edge Browns despite road game.
BAL 82% TEN @ BALRavens dominate Titans; Lamar Jackson if healthy.
BUF 78% NE @ BUFBills 3-0 with Josh Allen vs weak Patriots.
DET 65% DET @ CARLions offense high-powered, Panthers inconsistent.
CHI 55% NYJ @ CHIBears defense and home field offset Keenum start.
CIN 55% JAX @ CINBurrow and home edge slightly over Jaguars.
HOU 60% DAL @ HOUTexans desperate at home, Stroud over Prescott.
KC 58% KC @ LVMahomes and Chiefs talent edge Raiders despite Vegas unbeaten.
MIN 88% MIA @ MINVikings 3-0 and Dolphins 0-3 with weak QB.
NYG 55% ARI @ NYG · bet $4 NYG +116 (+$4.64)Giants at home with Winston better than Brissett-led Cardinals.
LAR 58% LAR @ PHIRams more consistent, Eagles injuries hinder.
SEA 75% LAC @ SEASeahawks 3-0 vs winless Chargers.
SF 70% DEN @ SF · bet $6 SF -145 (+$4.14)49ers dominant at home, Broncos overmatched.
GB 72% GB @ TB · bet $5 GB -185 (+$2.70)Packers face Buccaneers missing Baker Mayfield.
IND 70% IND @ WAS · bet $2 IND -196 (+$1.02)Colts over Commanders with Mariota at QB.
ATL 55% ATL @ NO · bet $3 ATL +122 (+$3.66)Falcons momentum after blowout win, Saints shaky.

Team page →

Raw response

{
  "headline": "Betting on 49ers and Packers as home favorites, and Giants as home underdog.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "PIT@CLE",
      "pick": "PIT",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Rodgers-led Steelers edge Browns despite road game."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "TEN@BAL",
      "pick": "BAL",
      "win_prob": 0.82,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Ravens dominate Titans; Lamar Jackson if healthy."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NE@BUF",
      "pick": "BUF",
      "win_prob": 0.78,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Bills 3-0 with Josh Allen vs weak Patriots."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DET@CAR",
      "pick": "DET",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Lions offense high-powered, Panthers inconsistent."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYJ@CHI",
      "pick": "CHI",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Bears defense and home field offset Keenum start."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "JAX@CIN",
      "pick": "CIN",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Burrow and home edge slightly over Jaguars."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DAL@HOU",
      "pick": "HOU",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Texans desperate at home, Stroud over Prescott."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "KC@LV",
      "pick": "KC",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Mahomes and Chiefs talent edge Raiders despite Vegas unbeaten."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "MIA@MIN",
      "pick": "MIN",
      "win_prob": 0.88,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Vikings 3-0 and Dolphins 0-3 with weak QB."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "ARI@NYG",
      "pick": "NYG",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": "NYG",
      "stake": 4,
      "reason": "Giants at home with Winston better than Brissett-led Cardinals."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LAR@PHI",
      "pick": "LAR",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Rams more consistent, Eagles injuries hinder."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LAC@SEA",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.75,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Seahawks 3-0 vs winless Chargers."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DEN@SF",
      "pick": "SF",
      "win_prob": 0.70,
      "bet_team": "SF",
      "stake": 6,
      "reason": "49ers dominant at home, Broncos overmatched."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "GB@TB",
      "pick": "GB",
      "win_prob": 0.72,
      "bet_team": "GB",
      "stake": 5,
      "reason": "Packers face Buccaneers missing Baker Mayfield."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "IND@WAS",
      "pick": "IND",
      "win_prob": 0.70,
      "bet_team": "IND",
      "stake": 2,
      "reason": "Colts over Commanders with Mariota at QB."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "ATL@NO",
      "pick": "ATL",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": "ATL",
      "stake": 3,
      "reason": "Falcons momentum after blowout win, Saints shaky."
    }
  ]
}

GPT-5.6 Sol10–6Brier 0.214staked $32 of $100.00 · +$10.67

Minnesota is the safest pick against winless Miami, which starts Malik Willis and remains without De'Von Achane.

All 16 picks, with reasons

PIT 56% PIT @ CLEPittsburgh’s divisional win over Cincinnati and quarterback advantage narrowly outweigh Cleveland’s home field.
BAL 83% TEN @ BALLamar Jackson is projected to start against a winless Tennessee team averaging only 12.3 points.
BUF 75% NE @ BUFBuffalo’s Josh Allen-led offense has scored 101 points, while New England was just routed 35-6.
DET 62% DET @ CARDetroit’s established offense has topped 30 points every week, while Carolina enters depleted at receiver.
CHI 58% NYJ @ CHIChicago’s strong defense and home field offset Case Keenum starting, especially with Breece Hall doubtful.
JAX 52% JAX @ CIN · bet $6 JAX +120 (+$7.20)Jacksonville’s plus-46 point differential and two dominant wins make the underdog price attractive against Cincinnati.
HOU 55% DAL @ HOU · bet $2 DAL +136 (+$2.72)Houston’s defense and home field provide a slight edge, but Dallas offers value after competing closely with Baltimore.
KC 62% KC @ LV · bet $2 LV +180 (−$2.00)Patrick Mahomes remains the separator, though unbeaten Las Vegas has earned a small home-underdog wager.
MIN 87% MIA @ MINMinnesota is 3-0 with a plus-30 differential, while Miami starts Malik Willis and lacks De’Von Achane.
ARI 58% ARI @ NYGArizona has produced 56 points in two road games, while New York’s offense averages only 15.3 points.
LAR 56% LAR @ PHI · bet $2 PHI +140 (−$2.00)The Rams carry better recent form, but Philadelphia’s home field makes its underdog price worthwhile.
SEA 77% LAC @ SEASeattle’s 3-0 start and plus-31 differential contrast sharply with the Chargers’ winless, injury-hit offense.
SF 68% DEN @ SF · bet $11 SF -145 (+$7.59)San Francisco’s 3-0 record and plus-48 differential create substantial value at home against inconsistent Denver.
GB 68% GB @ TB · bet $4 GB -185 (+$2.16)Baker Mayfield’s absence leaves winless Tampa Bay at a major quarterback disadvantage against Jordan Love.
IND 57% IND @ WAS · bet $5 WAS +165 (−$5.00)Indianapolis has the narrow form edge, but Washington’s competitive losses and home field make +165 appealing.
NO 54% ATL @ NONew Orleans has played three competitive games and owns home field, narrowly outweighing Atlanta’s breakthrough win.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Minnesota is the safest pick against winless Miami, which starts Malik Willis and remains without De'Von Achane.","picks":[{"game_key":"PIT@CLE","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Pittsburgh’s divisional win over Cincinnati and quarterback advantage narrowly outweigh Cleveland’s home field."},{"game_key":"TEN@BAL","pick":"BAL","win_prob":0.83,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Lamar Jackson is projected to start against a winless Tennessee team averaging only 12.3 points."},{"game_key":"NE@BUF","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.75,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Buffalo’s Josh Allen-led offense has scored 101 points, while New England was just routed 35-6."},{"game_key":"DET@CAR","pick":"DET","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Detroit’s established offense has topped 30 points every week, while Carolina enters depleted at receiver."},{"game_key":"NYJ@CHI","pick":"CHI","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Chicago’s strong defense and home field offset Case Keenum starting, especially with Breece Hall doubtful."},{"game_key":"JAX@CIN","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.52,"bet_team":"JAX","stake":6,"reason":"Jacksonville’s plus-46 point differential and two dominant wins make the underdog price attractive against Cincinnati."},{"game_key":"DAL@HOU","pick":"HOU","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":"DAL","stake":2,"reason":"Houston’s defense and home field provide a slight edge, but Dallas offers value after competing closely with Baltimore."},{"game_key":"KC@LV","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":"LV","stake":2,"reason":"Patrick Mahomes remains the separator, though unbeaten Las Vegas has earned a small home-underdog wager."},{"game_key":"MIA@MIN","pick":"MIN","win_prob":0.87,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Minnesota is 3-0 with a plus-30 differential, while Miami starts Malik Willis and lacks De’Von Achane."},{"game_key":"ARI@NYG","pick":"ARI","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Arizona has produced 56 points in two road games, while New York’s offense averages only 15.3 points."},{"game_key":"LAR@PHI","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":"PHI","stake":2,"reason":"The Rams carry better recent form, but Philadelphia’s home field makes its underdog price worthwhile."},{"game_key":"LAC@SEA","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.77,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Seattle’s 3-0 start and plus-31 differential contrast sharply with the Chargers’ winless, injury-hit offense."},{"game_key":"DEN@SF","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":"SF","stake":11,"reason":"San Francisco’s 3-0 record and plus-48 differential create substantial value at home against inconsistent Denver."},{"game_key":"GB@TB","pick":"GB","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":"GB","stake":4,"reason":"Baker Mayfield’s absence leaves winless Tampa Bay at a major quarterback disadvantage against Jordan Love."},{"game_key":"IND@WAS","pick":"IND","win_prob":0.57,"bet_team":"WAS","stake":5,"reason":"Indianapolis has the narrow form edge, but Washington’s competitive losses and home field make +165 appealing."},{"game_key":"ATL@NO","pick":"NO","win_prob":0.54,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"New Orleans has played three competitive games and owns home field, narrowly outweighing Atlanta’s breakthrough win."}]}

Qwen3.8 Max9–7Brier 0.215staked $27 of $100.00 · +$15.68

GB gets a gift with Baker Mayfield out — backing Jordan Love against a TB backup at -185.

All 16 picks, with reasons

PIT 58% PIT @ CLERodgers and Steelers defense edge Watson in a low-scoring affair.
BAL 90% TEN @ BALLamar projected to start; TEN has scored 37 total points all season.
BUF 80% NE @ BUFJosh Allen and 3-0 Bills too much for Drake Maye's struggling offense.
DET 68% DET @ CARGoff's high-powered offense overwhelms Bryce Young and inconsistent Panthers.
CHI 60% NYJ @ CHIKeenum starts but Chicago's elite defense carries them past banged-up Jets.
CIN 57% JAX @ CINBurrow at home edges Lawrence in a close AFC matchup.
HOU 56% DAL @ HOUStroud at home gets the edge despite 0-3 start; close games throughout.
KC 72% KC @ LV · bet $5 KC -218 (+$2.29)Mahomes and 3-0 Chiefs handle Cousins despite LV's surprising start.
MIN 88% MIA @ MIN3-0 Vikings with Kyler Murray dominate winless Dolphins and Malik Willis.
ARI 57% ARI @ NYGBrissett's experience edges Winston in a low-scoring close game.
LAR 63% LAR @ PHIPHI's anemic offense and injuries give Stafford the road edge.
SEA 82% LAC @ SEA3-0 Seahawks with Darnold rolling handle winless Chargers easily.
SF 65% DEN @ SF · bet $10 SF -145 (+$6.90)Purdy's 3-0 Niners with 98 points scored handle mediocre Broncos.
GB 75% GB @ TB · bet $12 GB -185 (+$6.49)Mayfield out, backup starts; Love and Packers exploit massive QB downgrade.
IND 68% IND @ WASMariota starting for 0-3 WAS; Daniel Jones and Colts get road win.
NO 57% ATL @ NOShough and Saints at home edge Penix in a close NFC South battle.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"GB gets a gift with Baker Mayfield out — backing Jordan Love against a TB backup at -185.","picks":[{"game_key":"PIT@CLE","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Rodgers and Steelers defense edge Watson in a low-scoring affair."},{"game_key":"TEN@BAL","pick":"BAL","win_prob":0.90,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Lamar projected to start; TEN has scored 37 total points all season."},{"game_key":"NE@BUF","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.80,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Josh Allen and 3-0 Bills too much for Drake Maye's struggling offense."},{"game_key":"DET@CAR","pick":"DET","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Goff's high-powered offense overwhelms Bryce Young and inconsistent Panthers."},{"game_key":"NYJ@CHI","pick":"CHI","win_prob":0.60,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Keenum starts but Chicago's elite defense carries them past banged-up Jets."},{"game_key":"JAX@CIN","pick":"CIN","win_prob":0.57,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Burrow at home edges Lawrence in a close AFC matchup."},{"game_key":"DAL@HOU","pick":"HOU","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Stroud at home gets the edge despite 0-3 start; close games throughout."},{"game_key":"KC@LV","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.72,"bet_team":"KC","stake":5,"reason":"Mahomes and 3-0 Chiefs handle Cousins despite LV's surprising start."},{"game_key":"MIA@MIN","pick":"MIN","win_prob":0.88,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"3-0 Vikings with Kyler Murray dominate winless Dolphins and Malik Willis."},{"game_key":"ARI@NYG","pick":"ARI","win_prob":0.57,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Brissett's experience edges Winston in a low-scoring close game."},{"game_key":"LAR@PHI","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.63,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"PHI's anemic offense and injuries give Stafford the road edge."},{"game_key":"LAC@SEA","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.82,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"3-0 Seahawks with Darnold rolling handle winless Chargers easily."},{"game_key":"DEN@SF","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.65,"bet_team":"SF","stake":10,"reason":"Purdy's 3-0 Niners with 98 points scored handle mediocre Broncos."},{"game_key":"GB@TB","pick":"GB","win_prob":0.75,"bet_team":"GB","stake":12,"reason":"Mayfield out, backup starts; Love and Packers exploit massive QB downgrade."},{"game_key":"IND@WAS","pick":"IND","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Mariota starting for 0-3 WAS; Daniel Jones and Colts get road win."},{"game_key":"ATL@NO","pick":"NO","win_prob":0.57,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Shough and Saints at home edge Penix in a close NFC South battle."}]}

Muse Spark 1.29–7Brier 0.218staked $20 of $100.00 · +$4.30

Vikings roll depleted Dolphins at home as Minnesota's perfect start continues.

All 16 picks, with reasons

PIT 57% PIT @ CLERodgers steadier than Watson and Steelers defense travels well.
BAL 84% TEN @ BALRavens at home overwhelm winless Titans despite Jackson question.
BUF 74% NE @ BUF · bet $5 BUF -300 (−$5.00)Allen and 3-0 Bills too explosive for struggling Patriots offense.
DET 63% DET @ CARGoff offense outguns banged-up Panthers secondary on road.
CHI 56% NYJ @ CHIBears defense at home covers for Keenum against limited Jets.
CIN 56% JAX @ CINBurrow at home edges Lawrence in tight AFC matchup.
HOU 58% DAL @ HOUTexans desperate at home, Stroud finds edge versus Dallas defense.
KC 66% KC @ LVMahomes perfect record and pedigree beats Cousins-led Raiders.
MIN 83% MIA @ MINUndefeated Vikings defense smothers Willis-led winless Dolphins.
ARI 56% ARI @ NYGBrissett steadier than Winston in battle of backups.
LAR 60% LAR @ PHIStafford efficient attack exploits banged-up Eagles secondary.
SEA 74% LAC @ SEA3-0 Seahawks at home stifle winless Chargers.
SF 65% DEN @ SF · bet $8 SF -145 (+$5.52)Perfect 49ers at home overpower inconsistent Broncos.
GB 68% GB @ TB · bet $7 GB -185 (+$3.78)Love faces backup Daniels as Mayfield out for Bucs.
IND 63% IND @ WASJones steadier than Mariota with Daniels hurting for Washington.
NO 55% ATL @ NOSaints at home edge Falcons despite Atlanta upset last week.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Vikings roll depleted Dolphins at home as Minnesota's perfect start continues.","picks":[{"game_key":"PIT@CLE","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.57,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Rodgers steadier than Watson and Steelers defense travels well."},{"game_key":"TEN@BAL","pick":"BAL","win_prob":0.84,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Ravens at home overwhelm winless Titans despite Jackson question."},{"game_key":"NE@BUF","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.74,"bet_team":"BUF","stake":5,"reason":"Allen and 3-0 Bills too explosive for struggling Patriots offense."},{"game_key":"DET@CAR","pick":"DET","win_prob":0.63,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Goff offense outguns banged-up Panthers secondary on road."},{"game_key":"NYJ@CHI","pick":"CHI","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Bears defense at home covers for Keenum against limited Jets."},{"game_key":"JAX@CIN","pick":"CIN","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Burrow at home edges Lawrence in tight AFC matchup."},{"game_key":"DAL@HOU","pick":"HOU","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Texans desperate at home, Stroud finds edge versus Dallas defense."},{"game_key":"KC@LV","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.66,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Mahomes perfect record and pedigree beats Cousins-led Raiders."},{"game_key":"MIA@MIN","pick":"MIN","win_prob":0.83,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Undefeated Vikings defense smothers Willis-led winless Dolphins."},{"game_key":"ARI@NYG","pick":"ARI","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Brissett steadier than Winston in battle of backups."},{"game_key":"LAR@PHI","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.6,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Stafford efficient attack exploits banged-up Eagles secondary."},{"game_key":"LAC@SEA","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.74,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"3-0 Seahawks at home stifle winless Chargers."},{"game_key":"DEN@SF","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.65,"bet_team":"SF","stake":8,"reason":"Perfect 49ers at home overpower inconsistent Broncos."},{"game_key":"GB@TB","pick":"GB","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":"GB","stake":7,"reason":"Love faces backup Daniels as Mayfield out for Bucs."},{"game_key":"IND@WAS","pick":"IND","win_prob":0.63,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Jones steadier than Mariota with Daniels hurting for Washington."},{"game_key":"ATL@NO","pick":"NO","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Saints at home edge Falcons despite Atlanta upset last week."}]}

Grok 4.69–7Brier 0.220staked $30 of $100.00 · +$4.32

Most sure of Minnesota over Miami's backup-led offense; fading Keenum's Bears with a Jets bet.

All 16 picks, with reasons

PIT 58% PIT @ CLERodgers gives Pittsburgh a slight road edge over Watson in a low-scoring AFC North game.
BAL 84% TEN @ BALLamar is projected to start at home against a winless Titans team that has scored 37 points.
BUF 73% NE @ BUFUndefeated Josh Allen and Buffalo at home against New England's 10-point-per-game offense.
DET 65% DET @ CARLions' high-scoring offense visits a Panthers team missing multiple skill players.
NYJ 56% NYJ @ CHI · bet $12 NYJ +150 (−$12.00)Projected starter Case Keenum and Chicago's hamstring issue create plus-money value for Geno.
JAX 55% JAX @ CIN · bet $10 JAX +120 (+$12.00)Jaguars' elite early defense (36 points allowed) travels after a 35-6 statement win.
HOU 56% DAL @ HOUWinless Texans still get a home nod with Stroud against a streaky Cowboys club.
KC 64% KC @ LVMahomes and the 3-0 Chiefs should handle Kirk Cousins even against an unbeaten Raiders team.
MIN 81% MIA @ MINVikings 3-0 defense versus Dolphins starting Malik Willis and missing Achane.
ARI 56% ARI @ NYGBrissett and the favored Cardinals catch the Giants starting Winston after Dart's IR stint.
LAR 60% LAR @ PHIStafford's Rams are road favorites against an Eagles team coming off a 7-27 loss with injuries.
SEA 76% LAC @ SEASeahawks 3-0 at home against winless Chargers with McConkey questionable.
SF 61% DEN @ SFPurdy and the 3-0 49ers at home should beat Nix after Denver's two losses in three.
GB 68% GB @ TB · bet $8 GB -185 (+$4.32)Packers visit 0-3 Tampa Bay, which is without Baker Mayfield at quarterback.
IND 66% IND @ WASColts catch Washington starting Mariota with Daniels only questionable at quarterback.
NO 55% ATL @ NOSaints get a slight home-division edge despite Etienne being out.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Most sure of Minnesota over Miami's backup-led offense; fading Keenum's Bears with a Jets bet.","picks":[{"game_key":"PIT@CLE","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Rodgers gives Pittsburgh a slight road edge over Watson in a low-scoring AFC North game."},{"game_key":"TEN@BAL","pick":"BAL","win_prob":0.84,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Lamar is projected to start at home against a winless Titans team that has scored 37 points."},{"game_key":"NE@BUF","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.73,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Undefeated Josh Allen and Buffalo at home against New England's 10-point-per-game offense."},{"game_key":"DET@CAR","pick":"DET","win_prob":0.65,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Lions' high-scoring offense visits a Panthers team missing multiple skill players."},{"game_key":"NYJ@CHI","pick":"NYJ","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":"NYJ","stake":12,"reason":"Projected starter Case Keenum and Chicago's hamstring issue create plus-money value for Geno."},{"game_key":"JAX@CIN","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":"JAX","stake":10,"reason":"Jaguars' elite early defense (36 points allowed) travels after a 35-6 statement win."},{"game_key":"DAL@HOU","pick":"HOU","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Winless Texans still get a home nod with Stroud against a streaky Cowboys club."},{"game_key":"KC@LV","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Mahomes and the 3-0 Chiefs should handle Kirk Cousins even against an unbeaten Raiders team."},{"game_key":"MIA@MIN","pick":"MIN","win_prob":0.81,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Vikings 3-0 defense versus Dolphins starting Malik Willis and missing Achane."},{"game_key":"ARI@NYG","pick":"ARI","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Brissett and the favored Cardinals catch the Giants starting Winston after Dart's IR stint."},{"game_key":"LAR@PHI","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.6,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Stafford's Rams are road favorites against an Eagles team coming off a 7-27 loss with injuries."},{"game_key":"LAC@SEA","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.76,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Seahawks 3-0 at home against winless Chargers with McConkey questionable."},{"game_key":"DEN@SF","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.61,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Purdy and the 3-0 49ers at home should beat Nix after Denver's two losses in three."},{"game_key":"GB@TB","pick":"GB","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":"GB","stake":8,"reason":"Packers visit 0-3 Tampa Bay, which is without Baker Mayfield at quarterback."},{"game_key":"IND@WAS","pick":"IND","win_prob":0.66,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Colts catch Washington starting Mariota with Daniels only questionable at quarterback."},{"game_key":"ATL@NO","pick":"NO","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Saints get a slight home-division edge despite Etienne being out."}]}

Kimi K39–7Brier 0.221staked $20 of $100.00 · +$13.85

Most confident: Minnesota stays unbeaten against a decimated Miami team starting Malik Willis.

All 16 picks, with reasons

PIT 58% PIT @ CLERodgers and Pittsburgh's defense edge Watson's Browns in a tight divisional game.
BAL 85% TEN @ BALWinless Titans with rookie Cam Ward face Lamar's high-scoring Ravens; price too steep to bet.
BUF 72% NE @ BUFUndefeated Bills with Allen at home against a Patriots offense scoring just 10 points per game.
DET 65% DET @ CARDetroit's offense is rolling while Carolina is missing its top receivers Legette and possibly Coker.
CHI 55% NYJ @ CHIKeenum starting hurts Chicago, but the Jets are missing Hall and Mitchell; coin-flip lean to home side.
CIN 55% JAX @ CIN · bet $3 JAX +120 (+$3.60)Burrow at home is the pick, but Jacksonville's league-best defense (36 points allowed) makes +120 worth a small bet.
HOU 55% DAL @ HOU · bet $3 DAL +136 (+$4.08)Houston is winless with Collins hurt; small value bet on Prescott's Cowboys at +136 despite picking Houston.
KC 62% KC @ LVBoth 3-0, but Mahomes and Kansas City's defense (50 points allowed) outclass Cousins' Raiders.
MIN 82% MIA @ MINMiami is 0-3, missing Achane, and starting Malik Willis against Minnesota's stingy defense.
ARI 58% ARI @ NYGArizona's losses were to good teams; Giants turn to Jameis Winston with Dart on IR.
LAR 58% LAR @ PHIStafford's Rams are in better form; Eagles missing Goedert and possibly Smith on offense.
SEA 75% LAC @ SEA · bet $5 SEA -350 (+$1.43)Seattle is 3-0 with the league's best point differential; winless Chargers have injury questions at skill spots.
SF 62% DEN @ SFUndefeated 49ers at home with Purdy against a Broncos team that has beaten only Jacksonville.
GB 68% GB @ TB · bet $5 GB -185 (+$2.70)Mayfield is out and winless Tampa starts Jalon Daniels; Love's Packers should handle them.
IND 65% IND @ WAS · bet $4 IND -196 (+$2.04)Washington is 0-3 and starting Mariota with Daniels hurt; Colts' offense has been productive.
NO 55% ATL @ NOSlight lean to the Saints at home despite Etienne's absence; Atlanta has been wildly inconsistent.

Team page →

Raw response

{
  "headline": "Most confident: Minnesota stays unbeaten against a decimated Miami team starting Malik Willis.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "PIT@CLE",
      "pick": "PIT",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Rodgers and Pittsburgh's defense edge Watson's Browns in a tight divisional game."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "TEN@BAL",
      "pick": "BAL",
      "win_prob": 0.85,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Winless Titans with rookie Cam Ward face Lamar's high-scoring Ravens; price too steep to bet."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NE@BUF",
      "pick": "BUF",
      "win_prob": 0.72,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Undefeated Bills with Allen at home against a Patriots offense scoring just 10 points per game."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DET@CAR",
      "pick": "DET",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Detroit's offense is rolling while Carolina is missing its top receivers Legette and possibly Coker."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYJ@CHI",
      "pick": "CHI",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Keenum starting hurts Chicago, but the Jets are missing Hall and Mitchell; coin-flip lean to home side."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "JAX@CIN",
      "pick": "CIN",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": "JAX",
      "stake": 3,
      "reason": "Burrow at home is the pick, but Jacksonville's league-best defense (36 points allowed) makes +120 worth a small bet."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DAL@HOU",
      "pick": "HOU",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": "DAL",
      "stake": 3,
      "reason": "Houston is winless with Collins hurt; small value bet on Prescott's Cowboys at +136 despite picking Houston."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "KC@LV",
      "pick": "KC",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Both 3-0, but Mahomes and Kansas City's defense (50 points allowed) outclass Cousins' Raiders."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "MIA@MIN",
      "pick": "MIN",
      "win_prob": 0.82,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Miami is 0-3, missing Achane, and starting Malik Willis against Minnesota's stingy defense."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "ARI@NYG",
      "pick": "ARI",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Arizona's losses were to good teams; Giants turn to Jameis Winston with Dart on IR."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LAR@PHI",
      "pick": "LAR",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Stafford's Rams are in better form; Eagles missing Goedert and possibly Smith on offense."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LAC@SEA",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.75,
      "bet_team": "SEA",
      "stake": 5,
      "reason": "Seattle is 3-0 with the league's best point differential; winless Chargers have injury questions at skill spots."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DEN@SF",
      "pick": "SF",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Undefeated 49ers at home with Purdy against a Broncos team that has beaten only Jacksonville."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "GB@TB",
      "pick": "GB",
      "win_prob": 0.68,
      "bet_team": "GB",
      "stake": 5,
      "reason": "Mayfield is out and winless Tampa starts Jalon Daniels; Love's Packers should handle them."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "IND@WAS",
      "pick": "IND",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": "IND",
      "stake": 4,
      "reason": "Washington is 0-3 and starting Mariota with Daniels hurt; Colts' offense has been productive."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "ATL@NO",
      "pick": "NO",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Slight lean to the Saints at home despite Etienne's absence; Atlanta has been wildly inconsistent."
    }
  ]
}

Gemini 3.1 Pro9–7Brier 0.222staked $30 of $100.00 · +$19.20

The undefeated 49ers offer great value at home against the Broncos, while the Packers should capitalize on a Buccaneers team missing Baker Mayfield.

All 16 picks, with reasons

PIT 60% PIT @ CLEAaron Rodgers and the Steelers' defense should outclass Deshaun Watson's Browns in this divisional clash.
BAL 85% TEN @ BALLamar Jackson and the Ravens are heavy favorites against a struggling Titans team starting rookie Cam Ward.
BUF 75% NE @ BUFJosh Allen has the Bills rolling at 3-0, while the Patriots lack the firepower to keep up.
DET 65% DET @ CARJared Goff leads a potent Lions offense that should overpower the inconsistent Panthers.
CHI 62% NYJ @ CHIEven with Case Keenum starting, the Bears' defense has been stellar and should stifle Geno Smith's Jets.
CIN 55% JAX @ CINJoe Burrow and the Bengals have the edge at home against a Jaguars team that has overperformed early on.
HOU 60% DAL @ HOUDespite being 0-3, C.J. Stroud and the Texans are favored at home to bounce back against a shaky Cowboys squad.
KC 68% KC @ LVPatrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are undefeated and should hand Kirk Cousins' Raiders their first loss.
MIN 85% MIA @ MINKyler Murray has the Vikings at 3-0, while the Dolphins are winless and starting Malik Willis.
ARI 58% ARI @ NYGJacoby Brissett and the Cardinals are favored on the road against a Giants team led by Jameis Winston.
LAR 62% LAR @ PHIMatthew Stafford and the Rams have the offensive edge over the Eagles in this road matchup.
SEA 75% LAC @ SEASam Darnold has the Seahawks at 3-0, and they should easily handle the winless Chargers.
SF 65% DEN @ SF · bet $20 SF -145 (+$13.79)Brock Purdy and the undefeated 49ers are a strong value pick at home against rookie Bo Nix.
GB 65% GB @ TB · bet $10 GB -185 (+$5.41)Jordan Love and the Packers should capitalize on the Buccaneers starting rookie Jalon Daniels with Baker Mayfield out.
IND 65% IND @ WASDaniel Jones and the Colts are favored on the road against a winless Commanders team starting Marcus Mariota.
NO 58% ATL @ NOThe Saints have the home-field advantage and should edge out Michael Penix's Falcons in a close divisional game.

Team page →

Raw response

```json
{
  "headline": "The undefeated 49ers offer great value at home against the Broncos, while the Packers should capitalize on a Buccaneers team missing Baker Mayfield.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "PIT@CLE",
      "pick": "PIT",
      "win_prob": 0.6,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers' defense should outclass Deshaun Watson's Browns in this divisional clash."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "TEN@BAL",
      "pick": "BAL",
      "win_prob": 0.85,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are heavy favorites against a struggling Titans team starting rookie Cam Ward."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NE@BUF",
      "pick": "BUF",
      "win_prob": 0.75,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Josh Allen has the Bills rolling at 3-0, while the Patriots lack the firepower to keep up."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DET@CAR",
      "pick": "DET",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Jared Goff leads a potent Lions offense that should overpower the inconsistent Panthers."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYJ@CHI",
      "pick": "CHI",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Even with Case Keenum starting, the Bears' defense has been stellar and should stifle Geno Smith's Jets."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "JAX@CIN",
      "pick": "CIN",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Joe Burrow and the Bengals have the edge at home against a Jaguars team that has overperformed early on."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DAL@HOU",
      "pick": "HOU",
      "win_prob": 0.6,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Despite being 0-3, C.J. Stroud and the Texans are favored at home to bounce back against a shaky Cowboys squad."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "KC@LV",
      "pick": "KC",
      "win_prob": 0.68,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are undefeated and should hand Kirk Cousins' Raiders their first loss."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "MIA@MIN",
      "pick": "MIN",
      "win_prob": 0.85,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Kyler Murray has the Vikings at 3-0, while the Dolphins are winless and starting Malik Willis."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "ARI@NYG",
      "pick": "ARI",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals are favored on the road against a Giants team led by Jameis Winston."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LAR@PHI",
      "pick": "LAR",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Matthew Stafford and the Rams have the offensive edge over the Eagles in this road matchup."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LAC@SEA",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.75,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Sam Darnold has the Seahawks at 3-0, and they should easily handle the winless Chargers."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DEN@SF",
      "pick": "SF",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": "SF",
      "stake": 20,
      "reason": "Brock Purdy and the undefeated 49ers are a strong value pick at home against rookie Bo Nix."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "GB@TB",
      "pick": "GB",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": "GB",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "Jordan Love and the Packers should capitalize on the Buccaneers starting rookie Jalon Daniels with Baker Mayfield out."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "IND@WAS",
      "pick": "IND",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Daniel Jones and the Colts are favored on the road against a winless Commanders team starting Marcus Mariota."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "ATL@NO",
      "pick": "NO",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "The Saints have the home-field advantage and should edge out Michael Penix's Falcons in a close divisional game."
    }
  ]
}
```

What every model was sent

One DATA block, identical for all 8 · sha256 2c278b3e2529e8b1… · each model's own bankroll is stated after the block, outside the hash

System prompt

You are picking the winner of every NFL game this week, and managing a
bankroll of play money you can bet on those games.

This is a public prediction record, for entertainment. The money is not real
and you are not advising anyone to bet.

YOU MAY USE YOUR OWN FOOTBALL KNOWLEDGE: coaching, quarterback quality, roster
strength, home field, how these teams are built. But your knowledge stops
before this season started, and the DATA block does not:
- this_season has every result so far this season. Rosters, coaches and form
  may have changed since your training data. Where DATA disagrees with your
  memory, DATA wins.
- injuries is the current injury report for starters and key backups.
- projected_starting_qb is who is projected to start at quarterback THIS week.
- moneyline is the market price on each side to win the game, in American odds.
If your reasoning relies on a player, check he is not listed as out.

THE BANKROLL. Every competitor was given $100 when betting opened in week
4, and it has to last until the end of the NFL regular season. There
are no top-ups: what you lose is gone for the rest of the season, and what you win
you can bet again. The competitor holding the most money after the last regular-season
week wins this part. Your current balance, and how many weeks are left, are given
after the DATA block.
- A bet is on one team to win the game outright, at that team's moneyline.
  +150 means a $10 bet wins $15 profit. -150 means a $15 bet wins $10 profit.
  A losing bet loses the stake. A tie returns the stake.
- You may bet on either team — it does not have to be the team you pick — on
  any number of games, or on none. Stakes are whole dollars, and your stakes
  this week together may not exceed the amount available to you.
- The two sides' prices include the market's margin, so betting at random loses
  money over time.
- A game with a null moneyline cannot be bet on this week.

For EVERY game in games, return:
- pick: the team code (one of the two in that game) you expect to win.
- win_prob: your probability that your pick wins, from 0.5 to 1.
  0.5 is a coin flip. 0.75 means your pick wins three times in four. 0.95 is
  close to certain. These are scored all season with a Brier score — a
  confident miss costs far more than a cautious one — and published.
- bet_team: the team you are betting on, or null for no bet.
- stake: whole dollars on bet_team, or 0 for no bet.
- reason: one sentence, at most 25 words, naming what decided it.

Return only a single JSON object. No preamble, no markdown, no code fences.

Prompt with the DATA block

=== DATA ===
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Stroud","IND":"Daniel Jones","JAX":"Trevor Lawrence","KC":"Patrick Mahomes","LAC":"Justin Herbert","LAR":"Matthew Stafford","LV":"Kirk Cousins","MIA":"Malik Willis","MIN":"Kyler Murray","NE":"Drake Maye","NO":"Tyler Shough","NYG":"Jameis Winston","NYJ":"Geno Smith","PHI":"Jalen Hurts","PIT":"Aaron Rodgers","SEA":"Sam Darnold","SF":"Brock Purdy","TB":"Jalon Daniels","TEN":"Cam Ward","WAS":"Marcus Mariota"},"data_notes":["Scores in this_season are final NFL scores, most recent week last.","injuries lists QB/RB/WR/TE on the injury report who were preseason starters (preseason_starter: true) or are first or second on the depth chart now (starting QB only). Teams move an injured starter down the depth chart, so a preseason starter with a high depth_chart_order is usually hurt, not benched.","projected_starting_qb is the highest-projected quarterback for that team this week; null if none is projected.","moneyline is the median price across US sportsbooks when these prices were taken, in American odds, keyed by team. It includes the bookmakers' margin. null means no price was available.","There is no weather and no point spread in this data set."]}
=== END DATA ===

YOUR BANKROLL: $100.00 available. Your stakes this week may total at most $100.
This is week 4. Betting runs through week 18, the last week of the regular season: 15 weeks including this one.

Pick the winner of all 16 games in week 4. Every game_key in games, exactly once.

Return exactly this JSON shape and nothing else (one entry in picks per game):
{
  "headline": "One sentence: the pick you are most sure of, or the upset you are calling.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "AWAY@HOME",
      "pick": "HOME",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "One sentence, 25 words max."
    }
  ]
}