Week 5 NFL picks

Locked before the week's first kickoff · graded against final scores by code

For entertainment only. This is a public record of what eight AI models predict, not betting advice. The bankroll is play money: no real bets are placed, the prices are a median across books, and nothing on this site links to a sportsbook. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Week 5 so far

15 of 15 games final.
Best this week: Gemini 3.1 Pro, 10–4–1. The consensus pick is 9–5–1; always picking the home team is 6–8–1; the market favourite is 10–4–1.
42 bets, $379 staked in total.

Against the grain

Every pick that went against the rest of the panel. The moneyline is in the prompt, so most picks restate the market; these are where a model claimed to know something the market does not. The edge is the model's own probability minus the market's, margin removed — what it asserted, not our forecast.

GPT-5.6 Sol — LV over NE, 55% · market 37%, edge +18 pts · 3 against 5 · bet $10 LV +160 (−$10.00)Las Vegas’ 3-1 record and plus-29 scoring margin outweigh New England’s inconsistent offense.
Grok 4.6 — LV over NE, 53% · market 37%, edge +16 pts · 3 against 5 · bet $6 LV +160 (−$6.00)Raiders 3-1 score freely; Patriots offense is too inconsistent at home.
Qwen3.8 Max — LV over NE, 50% · market 37%, edge +13 pts · 3 against 5 · bet $7 LV +160 (−$7.00)LV is 3-1 with Cousins playing well; NE is inconsistent despite BUF upset.
Qwen3.8 Max — IND over PIT, 53% · market 43%, edge +10 pts · alone against 7IND has won two straight; PIT lost to CLE at home last week, Rodgers aging.
DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 — NYJ over CLE, 56% · market 55%, edge +1 pts · 3 against 5Jets home, but Cleveland 3-1; slight edge to New York.
Gemini 3.1 Pro — NYJ over CLE, 55% · market 55%, edge 0 pts · 3 against 5The Jets are slight home favorites against a Browns team that has overperformed its metrics.
DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 — SEA over SF, 60% · market 61%, edge −1 pts · 3 against 5Seattle undefeated at home, San Francisco strong but road test.
Kimi K3 — SEA over SF, 60% · market 61%, edge −1 pts · 3 against 5Both 4-0, but Seattle is home with Darnold dealing and a defense allowing under 17 per game.
Muse Spark 1.2 — SEA over SF, 58% · market 61%, edge −3 pts · 3 against 5Battle of unbeatens goes to Seattle at home.
GPT-5.6 Sol — NYJ over CLE, 51% · market 55%, edge −4 pts · 3 against 5 · bet $4 CLE +115 (−$4.00)Geno Smith and home field narrowly favor New York, but Breece Hall’s doubtful status keeps this nearly even.

Game by game

Each model's pick and how sure it was, and its bet if it made one · green won, red lost · outlined against the panel

Game	Final	Consensus	Gemini 3.1 Pro	DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813	Claude Opus 5	Muse Spark 1.2	GPT-5.6 Sol	Kimi K3	Qwen3.8 Max	Grok 4.6
TB @ DAL	TB 24–16 DAL	DAL 8/8	DAL 80%	DAL 80%	DAL 86%	DAL 84%	DAL 84%	DAL 85% $10 DAL -500	DAL 88%	DAL 82%
DET @ ARI	DET 45–21 ARI	DET 8/8	DET 70%	DET 70%	DET 68%	DET 68%	DET 67%	DET 70%	DET 70%	DET 69%
BAL @ ATL	BAL 30–17 ATL	ATL 8/8	ATL 60%	ATL 63%	ATL 66% $14 ATL -172	ATL 62%	ATL 61%	ATL 62%	ATL 65%	ATL 63%
CHI @ GB	CHI 7–31 GB	GB 4/8	CHI 55%	CHI 56%	GB 52% $8 GB +106	GB 55% $7 GB +106	GB 56% $6 GB +106	CHI 55%	GB 60% $8 GB +106	CHI 55%
PHI @ JAX	PHI 17–19 JAX	JAX 8/8	JAX 75%	JAX 76%	JAX 76%	JAX 76%	JAX 77%	JAX 76% $8 JAX -370	JAX 80%	JAX 76%
DEN @ LAC	DEN 23–17 LAC	DEN 8/8	DEN 60%	DEN 63% $20 DEN -180	DEN 60%	DEN 58%	DEN 57% $4 LAC +155	DEN 62%	DEN 60%	DEN 60%
CIN @ MIA	CIN 31–24 MIA	CIN 8/8	CIN 75%	CIN 75%	CIN 79%	CIN 74%	CIN 79% $3 CIN -320	CIN 74%	CIN 80%	CIN 78%
LV @ NE	LV 17–45 NE	NE 5/8	NE 60%	NE 64% $15 NE -195	NE 60%	NE 58%	LV 55% $10 LV +160	NE 60%	LV 50% $7 LV +160	LV 53% $6 LV +160
MIN @ NO	MIN 23–7 NO	MIN 8/8	MIN 65% $40 MIN -140	MIN 58% $15 MIN -140	MIN 65% $12 MIN -140	MIN 65% $8 MIN -140	MIN 64% $7 MIN -140	MIN 66%	MIN 65%	MIN 66% $12 MIN -140
CLE @ NYJ	CLE 12–17 NYJ	CLE 5/8	NYJ 55%	NYJ 56%	CLE 53% $8 CLE +115	CLE 54% $7 CLE +115	NYJ 51% $4 CLE +115	CLE 56% $8 CLE +115	CLE 55% $4 CLE +115	CLE 55% $8 CLE +115
IND @ PIT	IND 22–34 PIT	PIT 7/8	PIT 60%	PIT 58%	PIT 54%	PIT 56%	PIT 54%	PIT 60%	IND 53%	PIT 54%
SF @ SEA	SF 26–29 SEA	SF 5/8	SF 55% $10 SF +146	SEA 60%	SF 51% $10 SF +146	SEA 58%	SF 56% $10 SF +146	SEA 60%	SF 53% $7 SF +146	SF 54% $8 SF +146
HOU @ TEN	HOU 26–3 TEN	HOU 8/8	HOU 75%	HOU 76%	HOU 76%	HOU 72%	HOU 72% $3 TEN +308	HOU 74% $8 HOU -385	HOU 82%	HOU 72%
NYG @ WAS	NYG 27–27 WAS	WAS 4/8	WAS 60%	WAS 62%	NYG 52% $8 NYG +166	WAS 57% $5 NYG +166	WAS 57% $5 NYG +166	NYG 55% $8 NYG +166	NYG 50% $5 NYG +166	NYG 52%
BUF @ LAR	BUF 37–34 LAR	LAR 4/8	BUF 55% $10 BUF +145	LAR 61%	BUF 52% $8 BUF +145	LAR 60%	BUF 53% $10 BUF +145	LAR 57%	BUF 53% $5 BUF +145	LAR 58%
Record	Home team 6–8–1	9–5–1	10–4–1	10–4–1	10–4–1	10–4–1	10–4–1	9–5–1	8–6–1	7–7–1

Model by model

Every pick with the reason the model gave for it

Gemini 3.1 Pro10–4–1Brier 0.193staked $60 of $119.20 · +$33.07

The undefeated Vikings are a strong bet to handle the struggling Saints on the road.

All 15 picks, with reasons

DAL 80% TB @ DALDallas is heavily favored at home against a winless Buccaneers team starting a backup quarterback.
DET 70% DET @ ARIDetroit's offense should overpower an Arizona team struggling to find consistency with Jacoby Brissett.
ATL 60% BAL @ ATLWith Lamar Jackson questionable, Atlanta's home advantage and Michael Penix give them the edge.
CHI 55% CHI @ GBChicago's elite defense has carried them to a 3-1 start and should stifle Green Bay.
JAX 75% PHI @ JAXJacksonville's dominant defense and Trevor Lawrence make them heavy favorites against the Eagles.
DEN 60% DEN @ LACDenver is favored to bounce back against a winless Chargers team struggling to score.
CIN 75% CIN @ MIAJoe Burrow and the Bengals should easily handle a winless Dolphins team starting Malik Willis.
NE 60% LV @ NENew England's home-field advantage and solid defense make them the favorites against the Raiders.
MIN 65% MIN @ NO · bet $40 MIN -140 (+$28.57)Minnesota is undefeated with Kyler Murray and faces a struggling Saints team starting Tyler Shough.
NYJ 55% CLE @ NYJThe Jets are slight home favorites against a Browns team that has overperformed its metrics.
PIT 60% IND @ PITAaron Rodgers and the Steelers' defense should be enough to secure a home victory.
SF 55% SF @ SEA · bet $10 SF +146 (−$10.00)San Francisco's dominant offense gives them slight underdog value in a battle of undefeated teams.
HOU 75% HOU @ TENHouston is heavily favored to get their first win against a struggling Titans squad.
WAS 60% NYG @ WASWashington is favored at home to secure their first win against Jameis Winston's Giants.
BUF 55% BUF @ LAR · bet $10 BUF +145 (+$14.50)Josh Allen and the Bills have the offensive firepower to pull off the road upset.

Team page →

Raw response

{
  "headline": "The undefeated Vikings are a strong bet to handle the struggling Saints on the road.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "TB@DAL",
      "pick": "DAL",
      "win_prob": 0.80,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Dallas is heavily favored at home against a winless Buccaneers team starting a backup quarterback."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DET@ARI",
      "pick": "DET",
      "win_prob": 0.70,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Detroit's offense should overpower an Arizona team struggling to find consistency with Jacoby Brissett."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BAL@ATL",
      "pick": "ATL",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "With Lamar Jackson questionable, Atlanta's home advantage and Michael Penix give them the edge."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CHI@GB",
      "pick": "CHI",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Chicago's elite defense has carried them to a 3-1 start and should stifle Green Bay."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "PHI@JAX",
      "pick": "JAX",
      "win_prob": 0.75,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Jacksonville's dominant defense and Trevor Lawrence make them heavy favorites against the Eagles."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DEN@LAC",
      "pick": "DEN",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Denver is favored to bounce back against a winless Chargers team struggling to score."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CIN@MIA",
      "pick": "CIN",
      "win_prob": 0.75,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Joe Burrow and the Bengals should easily handle a winless Dolphins team starting Malik Willis."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LV@NE",
      "pick": "NE",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "New England's home-field advantage and solid defense make them the favorites against the Raiders."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "MIN@NO",
      "pick": "MIN",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": "MIN",
      "stake": 40,
      "reason": "Minnesota is undefeated with Kyler Murray and faces a struggling Saints team starting Tyler Shough."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CLE@NYJ",
      "pick": "NYJ",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "The Jets are slight home favorites against a Browns team that has overperformed its metrics."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "IND@PIT",
      "pick": "PIT",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers' defense should be enough to secure a home victory."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "SF@SEA",
      "pick": "SF",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": "SF",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "San Francisco's dominant offense gives them slight underdog value in a battle of undefeated teams."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "HOU@TEN",
      "pick": "HOU",
      "win_prob": 0.75,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Houston is heavily favored to get their first win against a struggling Titans squad."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYG@WAS",
      "pick": "WAS",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Washington is favored at home to secure their first win against Jameis Winston's Giants."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BUF@LAR",
      "pick": "BUF",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": "BUF",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "Josh Allen and the Bills have the offensive firepower to pull off the road upset."
    }
  ]
}

DeepSeek V4 Pro 081310–4–1Brier 0.199staked $50 of $116.16 · +$29.52

Dallas is my most confident pick, facing a winless Tampa Bay team without Baker Mayfield.

All 15 picks, with reasons

DAL 80% TB @ DALDallas at home with Dak against winless Tampa Bay missing Baker Mayfield.
DET 70% DET @ ARIDetroit's offense better than Arizona's, despite road game.
ATL 63% BAL @ ATLAtlanta home and Lamar Jackson questionable, Tyler Huntley likely starts.
CHI 56% CHI @ GBChicago defense strong, but Caleb Williams out; still favored by market.
JAX 76% PHI @ JAXJacksonville 3-1 with strong defense, Philadelphia inconsistent.
DEN 63% DEN @ LAC · bet $20 DEN -180 (+$11.11)Denver better than winless Chargers, Bo Nix improving.
CIN 75% CIN @ MIACincinnati offense superior, Miami winless and missing Achane.
NE 64% LV @ NE · bet $15 NE -195 (+$7.69)New England home after beating Buffalo, Las Vegas inconsistent.
MIN 58% MIN @ NO · bet $15 MIN -140 (+$10.71)Minnesota undefeated, New Orleans struggling and quarterback questionable.
NYJ 56% CLE @ NYJJets home, but Cleveland 3-1; slight edge to New York.
PIT 58% IND @ PITPittsburgh home with Aaron Rodgers, Indianapolis inconsistent.
SEA 60% SF @ SEASeattle undefeated at home, San Francisco strong but road test.
HOU 76% HOU @ TENHouston talent advantage, Tennessee winless and struggling.
WAS 62% NYG @ WASWashington home, but Giants 3-1; market favors Commanders.
LAR 61% BUF @ LARRams home and 3-1, Buffalo tough but road underdog.

Team page →

Raw response

{
  "headline": "Dallas is my most confident pick, facing a winless Tampa Bay team without Baker Mayfield.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "TB@DAL",
      "pick": "DAL",
      "win_prob": 0.80,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Dallas at home with Dak against winless Tampa Bay missing Baker Mayfield."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DET@ARI",
      "pick": "DET",
      "win_prob": 0.70,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Detroit's offense better than Arizona's, despite road game."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BAL@ATL",
      "pick": "ATL",
      "win_prob": 0.63,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Atlanta home and Lamar Jackson questionable, Tyler Huntley likely starts."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CHI@GB",
      "pick": "CHI",
      "win_prob": 0.56,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Chicago defense strong, but Caleb Williams out; still favored by market."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "PHI@JAX",
      "pick": "JAX",
      "win_prob": 0.76,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Jacksonville 3-1 with strong defense, Philadelphia inconsistent."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DEN@LAC",
      "pick": "DEN",
      "win_prob": 0.63,
      "bet_team": "DEN",
      "stake": 20,
      "reason": "Denver better than winless Chargers, Bo Nix improving."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CIN@MIA",
      "pick": "CIN",
      "win_prob": 0.75,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Cincinnati offense superior, Miami winless and missing Achane."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LV@NE",
      "pick": "NE",
      "win_prob": 0.64,
      "bet_team": "NE",
      "stake": 15,
      "reason": "New England home after beating Buffalo, Las Vegas inconsistent."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "MIN@NO",
      "pick": "MIN",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": "MIN",
      "stake": 15,
      "reason": "Minnesota undefeated, New Orleans struggling and quarterback questionable."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CLE@NYJ",
      "pick": "NYJ",
      "win_prob": 0.56,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Jets home, but Cleveland 3-1; slight edge to New York."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "IND@PIT",
      "pick": "PIT",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Pittsburgh home with Aaron Rodgers, Indianapolis inconsistent."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "SF@SEA",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Seattle undefeated at home, San Francisco strong but road test."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "HOU@TEN",
      "pick": "HOU",
      "win_prob": 0.76,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Houston talent advantage, Tennessee winless and struggling."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYG@WAS",
      "pick": "WAS",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Washington home, but Giants 3-1; market favors Commanders."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BUF@LAR",
      "pick": "LAR",
      "win_prob": 0.61,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Rams home and 3-1, Buffalo tough but road underdog."
    }
  ]
}

Claude Opus 510–4–1Brier 0.206staked $68 of $118.73 · −$3.35

Baltimore without Lamar Jackson gets run over in Atlanta — Falcons are my strongest bet of the week.

All 15 picks, with reasons

DAL 86% TB @ DALBaker Mayfield out leaves 0-4 Tampa starting Jalon Daniels against Dak at home; price too short to bet.
DET 68% DET @ ARIGoff and Detroit's offense outclass a 1-3 Arizona team with Brissett; market price is fair.
ATL 66% BAL @ ATL · bet $14 ATL -172 (−$14.00)Tyler Huntley projected over questionable Lamar with Flowers and Bateman banged up; Atlanta scoring 40 at home.
GB 52% CHI @ GB · bet $8 GB +106 (+$8.48)Chicago road-favored with backup Tyson Bagent; Packers at home as a pick'em is the value side.
JAX 76% PHI @ JAXJacksonville's defense has allowed 53 points all year; Eagles banged up at Barkley, Smith and Goedert.
DEN 60% DEN @ LACDenver's defense travels well against 0-4 Chargers, but Broncos' 68 points scored keeps me off the price.
CIN 79% CIN @ MIAMiami has 46 points in four games with Malik Willis and no Achane; Burrow wins, price too steep.
NE 60% LV @ NEMaye at home after beating Buffalo, but Bowers-less Raiders at 3-1 make this fairly priced.
MIN 65% MIN @ NO · bet $12 MIN -140 (+$8.57)Undefeated Vikings' defense faces a Saints team allowing 128 points with Shough's hand questionable.
CLE 53% CLE @ NYJ · bet $8 CLE +115 (−$8.00)Browns are 3-1 with a stingy defense yet priced as dogs at a 1-3 Jets team missing Breece Hall.
PIT 54% IND @ PITRodgers at home in a near coin-flip; Indy's blowout of Washington keeps me from laying the price.
SF 51% SF @ SEA · bet $10 SF +146 (−$10.00)Two 4-0 teams, but San Francisco's plus-58 differential beats Seattle's plus-38; taking the road dog price.
HOU 76% HOU @ TENStroud against the league's worst offense; Houston's four losses were all close, but no betting edge.
NYG 52% NYG @ WAS · bet $8 NYG +166 ($0.00)Giants 3-1 with a top defense are big dogs at 0-4 Washington, whose receivers are all questionable.
BUF 52% BUF @ LAR · bet $8 BUF +145 (+$11.60)Josh Allen as a +145 road dog is too cheap against a Rams team that lost 27-7 to San Francisco.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Baltimore without Lamar Jackson gets run over in Atlanta — Falcons are my strongest bet of the week.","picks":[{"game_key":"TB@DAL","pick":"DAL","win_prob":0.86,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Baker Mayfield out leaves 0-4 Tampa starting Jalon Daniels against Dak at home; price too short to bet."},{"game_key":"DET@ARI","pick":"DET","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Goff and Detroit's offense outclass a 1-3 Arizona team with Brissett; market price is fair."},{"game_key":"BAL@ATL","pick":"ATL","win_prob":0.66,"bet_team":"ATL","stake":14,"reason":"Tyler Huntley projected over questionable Lamar with Flowers and Bateman banged up; Atlanta scoring 40 at home."},{"game_key":"CHI@GB","pick":"GB","win_prob":0.52,"bet_team":"GB","stake":8,"reason":"Chicago road-favored with backup Tyson Bagent; Packers at home as a pick'em is the value side."},{"game_key":"PHI@JAX","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.76,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Jacksonville's defense has allowed 53 points all year; Eagles banged up at Barkley, Smith and Goedert."},{"game_key":"DEN@LAC","pick":"DEN","win_prob":0.60,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Denver's defense travels well against 0-4 Chargers, but Broncos' 68 points scored keeps me off the price."},{"game_key":"CIN@MIA","pick":"CIN","win_prob":0.79,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Miami has 46 points in four games with Malik Willis and no Achane; Burrow wins, price too steep."},{"game_key":"LV@NE","pick":"NE","win_prob":0.60,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Maye at home after beating Buffalo, but Bowers-less Raiders at 3-1 make this fairly priced."},{"game_key":"MIN@NO","pick":"MIN","win_prob":0.65,"bet_team":"MIN","stake":12,"reason":"Undefeated Vikings' defense faces a Saints team allowing 128 points with Shough's hand questionable."},{"game_key":"CLE@NYJ","pick":"CLE","win_prob":0.53,"bet_team":"CLE","stake":8,"reason":"Browns are 3-1 with a stingy defense yet priced as dogs at a 1-3 Jets team missing Breece Hall."},{"game_key":"IND@PIT","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.54,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Rodgers at home in a near coin-flip; Indy's blowout of Washington keeps me from laying the price."},{"game_key":"SF@SEA","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.51,"bet_team":"SF","stake":10,"reason":"Two 4-0 teams, but San Francisco's plus-58 differential beats Seattle's plus-38; taking the road dog price."},{"game_key":"HOU@TEN","pick":"HOU","win_prob":0.76,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Stroud against the league's worst offense; Houston's four losses were all close, but no betting edge."},{"game_key":"NYG@WAS","pick":"NYG","win_prob":0.52,"bet_team":"NYG","stake":8,"reason":"Giants 3-1 with a top defense are big dogs at 0-4 Washington, whose receivers are all questionable."},{"game_key":"BUF@LAR","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.52,"bet_team":"BUF","stake":8,"reason":"Josh Allen as a +145 road dog is too cheap against a Rams team that lost 27-7 to San Francisco."}]}

Muse Spark 1.210–4–1Brier 0.207staked $27 of $104.30 · +$6.13

Dallas should handle Tampa Bay with Baker Mayfield out and Jalon Daniels starting.

All 15 picks, with reasons

DAL 84% TB @ DALBackup Jalon Daniels faces Dak Prescott at home for winless Tampa.
DET 68% DET @ ARIJared Goff versus Jacoby Brissett gives Detroit clear quarterback edge.
ATL 62% BAL @ ATLTyler Huntley starting with Flowers and Bateman banged up hurts Baltimore.
GB 55% CHI @ GB · bet $7 GB +106 (+$7.42)Tyson Bagent starting for Chicago makes home underdog Green Bay value.
JAX 76% PHI @ JAXJacksonville's elite defense faces banged-up Philadelphia offense.
DEN 58% DEN @ LACDenver favored but both teams struggling; slight edge to Bo Nix.
CIN 74% CIN @ MIAJoe Burrow versus Malik Willis is massive mismatch despite Cincinnati injuries.
NE 58% LV @ NEHome field and Drake Maye edge over Kirk Cousins in close matchup.
MIN 65% MIN @ NO · bet $8 MIN -140 (+$5.71)Undefeated Minnesota defense dominates banged-up New Orleans with Shough questionable.
CLE 54% CLE @ NYJ · bet $7 CLE +115 (−$7.00)Cleveland has won three straight while Jets lose Hall and slide.
PIT 56% IND @ PITAaron Rodgers at home narrowly edges Daniel Jones.
SEA 58% SF @ SEABattle of unbeatens goes to Seattle at home.
HOU 72% HOU @ TENWinless Houston has been competitive; Tennessee offense has scored only 55 points.
WAS 57% NYG @ WAS · bet $5 NYG +166 ($0.00)Market overvalues winless Washington; Jameis Winston and hot Giants offer value.
LAR 60% BUF @ LARRams have won three straight at home against Bills coming off loss.

Team page →

Raw response

{
  "headline": "Dallas should handle Tampa Bay with Baker Mayfield out and Jalon Daniels starting.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "TB@DAL",
      "pick": "DAL",
      "win_prob": 0.84,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Backup Jalon Daniels faces Dak Prescott at home for winless Tampa."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DET@ARI",
      "pick": "DET",
      "win_prob": 0.68,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Jared Goff versus Jacoby Brissett gives Detroit clear quarterback edge."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BAL@ATL",
      "pick": "ATL",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Tyler Huntley starting with Flowers and Bateman banged up hurts Baltimore."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CHI@GB",
      "pick": "GB",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": "GB",
      "stake": 7,
      "reason": "Tyson Bagent starting for Chicago makes home underdog Green Bay value."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "PHI@JAX",
      "pick": "JAX",
      "win_prob": 0.76,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Jacksonville's elite defense faces banged-up Philadelphia offense."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DEN@LAC",
      "pick": "DEN",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Denver favored but both teams struggling; slight edge to Bo Nix."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CIN@MIA",
      "pick": "CIN",
      "win_prob": 0.74,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Joe Burrow versus Malik Willis is massive mismatch despite Cincinnati injuries."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LV@NE",
      "pick": "NE",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Home field and Drake Maye edge over Kirk Cousins in close matchup."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "MIN@NO",
      "pick": "MIN",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": "MIN",
      "stake": 8,
      "reason": "Undefeated Minnesota defense dominates banged-up New Orleans with Shough questionable."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CLE@NYJ",
      "pick": "CLE",
      "win_prob": 0.54,
      "bet_team": "CLE",
      "stake": 7,
      "reason": "Cleveland has won three straight while Jets lose Hall and slide."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "IND@PIT",
      "pick": "PIT",
      "win_prob": 0.56,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Aaron Rodgers at home narrowly edges Daniel Jones."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "SF@SEA",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Battle of unbeatens goes to Seattle at home."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "HOU@TEN",
      "pick": "HOU",
      "win_prob": 0.72,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Winless Houston has been competitive; Tennessee offense has scored only 55 points."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYG@WAS",
      "pick": "WAS",
      "win_prob": 0.57,
      "bet_team": "NYG",
      "stake": 5,
      "reason": "Market overvalues winless Washington; Jameis Winston and hot Giants offer value."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BUF@LAR",
      "pick": "LAR",
      "win_prob": 0.6,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Rams have won three straight at home against Bills coming off loss."
    }
  ]
}

GPT-5.6 Sol10–4–1Brier 0.211staked $62 of $110.67 · −$4.20

San Francisco’s dominant point differential makes the undefeated 49ers my upset pick at Seattle.

All 15 picks, with reasons

DAL 84% TB @ DALDak Prescott and Dallas’ potent offense face winless Tampa Bay without Baker Mayfield.
DET 67% DET @ ARIDetroit’s high-scoring offense has the advantage against an Arizona team allowing nearly 28 points per game.
ATL 61% BAL @ ATLBaltimore starts Tyler Huntley with two receivers questionable, while Atlanta enters after consecutive emphatic wins.
GB 56% CHI @ GB · bet $6 GB +106 (+$6.36)Jordan Love at home gives Green Bay the quarterback advantage over replacement starter Tyson Bagent.
JAX 77% PHI @ JAXJacksonville has allowed only 53 points and catches Philadelphia amid consecutive losses and multiple offensive injuries.
DEN 57% DEN @ LAC · bet $4 LAC +155 (−$4.00)Denver has the stronger defense and only victory, although Justin Herbert makes the underdog price attractive.
CIN 79% CIN @ MIA · bet $3 CIN -320 (+$0.94)Joe Burrow faces an 0-4 Miami team averaging just 11.5 points behind Malik Willis.
LV 55% LV @ NE · bet $10 LV +160 (−$10.00)Las Vegas’ 3-1 record and plus-29 scoring margin outweigh New England’s inconsistent offense.
MIN 64% MIN @ NO · bet $7 MIN -140 (+$5.00)Minnesota’s unbeaten defense has surrendered only 51 points, while New Orleans has lost two straight at home.
NYJ 51% CLE @ NYJ · bet $4 CLE +115 (−$4.00)Geno Smith and home field narrowly favor New York, but Breece Hall’s doubtful status keeps this nearly even.
PIT 54% IND @ PITAaron Rodgers and home field give Pittsburgh a narrow edge in an otherwise balanced matchup.
SF 56% SF @ SEA · bet $10 SF +146 (−$10.00)San Francisco’s plus-58 scoring margin and superior offense provide the edge between undefeated division rivals.
HOU 72% HOU @ TEN · bet $3 TEN +308 (−$3.00)Houston’s winless record masks a difficult schedule, but Tennessee’s large underdog price exceeds its upset chance.
WAS 57% NYG @ WAS · bet $5 NYG +166 ($0.00)Jayden Daniels provides Washington a substantial quarterback advantage over Jameis Winston despite the teams’ opposite records.
BUF 53% BUF @ LAR · bet $10 BUF +145 (+$14.50)Josh Allen and Buffalo’s 31.8-point scoring average narrowly outweigh the Rams’ home field and three-game winning streak.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"San Francisco’s dominant point differential makes the undefeated 49ers my upset pick at Seattle.","picks":[{"game_key":"TB@DAL","pick":"DAL","win_prob":0.84,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Dak Prescott and Dallas’ potent offense face winless Tampa Bay without Baker Mayfield."},{"game_key":"DET@ARI","pick":"DET","win_prob":0.67,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Detroit’s high-scoring offense has the advantage against an Arizona team allowing nearly 28 points per game."},{"game_key":"BAL@ATL","pick":"ATL","win_prob":0.61,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Baltimore starts Tyler Huntley with two receivers questionable, while Atlanta enters after consecutive emphatic wins."},{"game_key":"CHI@GB","pick":"GB","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":"GB","stake":6,"reason":"Jordan Love at home gives Green Bay the quarterback advantage over replacement starter Tyson Bagent."},{"game_key":"PHI@JAX","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.77,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Jacksonville has allowed only 53 points and catches Philadelphia amid consecutive losses and multiple offensive injuries."},{"game_key":"DEN@LAC","pick":"DEN","win_prob":0.57,"bet_team":"LAC","stake":4,"reason":"Denver has the stronger defense and only victory, although Justin Herbert makes the underdog price attractive."},{"game_key":"CIN@MIA","pick":"CIN","win_prob":0.79,"bet_team":"CIN","stake":3,"reason":"Joe Burrow faces an 0-4 Miami team averaging just 11.5 points behind Malik Willis."},{"game_key":"LV@NE","pick":"LV","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":"LV","stake":10,"reason":"Las Vegas’ 3-1 record and plus-29 scoring margin outweigh New England’s inconsistent offense."},{"game_key":"MIN@NO","pick":"MIN","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":"MIN","stake":7,"reason":"Minnesota’s unbeaten defense has surrendered only 51 points, while New Orleans has lost two straight at home."},{"game_key":"CLE@NYJ","pick":"NYJ","win_prob":0.51,"bet_team":"CLE","stake":4,"reason":"Geno Smith and home field narrowly favor New York, but Breece Hall’s doubtful status keeps this nearly even."},{"game_key":"IND@PIT","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.54,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Aaron Rodgers and home field give Pittsburgh a narrow edge in an otherwise balanced matchup."},{"game_key":"SF@SEA","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":"SF","stake":10,"reason":"San Francisco’s plus-58 scoring margin and superior offense provide the edge between undefeated division rivals."},{"game_key":"HOU@TEN","pick":"HOU","win_prob":0.72,"bet_team":"TEN","stake":3,"reason":"Houston’s winless record masks a difficult schedule, but Tennessee’s large underdog price exceeds its upset chance."},{"game_key":"NYG@WAS","pick":"WAS","win_prob":0.57,"bet_team":"NYG","stake":5,"reason":"Jayden Daniels provides Washington a substantial quarterback advantage over Jameis Winston despite the teams’ opposite records."},{"game_key":"BUF@LAR","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.53,"bet_team":"BUF","stake":10,"reason":"Josh Allen and Buffalo’s 31.8-point scoring average narrowly outweigh the Rams’ home field and three-game winning streak."}]}

Kimi K39–5–1Brier 0.205staked $42 of $113.85 · −$13.76

Most confident: Dallas rolls a winless Tampa Bay team starting backup Jalon Daniels with Baker Mayfield out.

All 15 picks, with reasons

DAL 85% TB @ DAL · bet $10 DAL -500 (−$10.00)Tampa is 0-4 and lost Mayfield; Dallas at home with Prescott should win comfortably.
DET 70% DET @ ARIDetroit's offense is far better than Arizona's 1-3 squad led by Brissett.
ATL 62% BAL @ ATLLamar likely out (Huntley starts) and Atlanta has scored 80 points over the last two weeks.
CHI 55% CHI @ GBCaleb Williams out hurts, but Chicago's defense (65 PA) is elite and Green Bay's offense is anemic.
JAX 76% PHI @ JAX · bet $8 JAX -370 (+$2.16)Jacksonville's league-best defense (53 PA) faces a banged-up Eagles offense missing key weapons.
DEN 62% DEN @ LACChargers are 0-4 with Herbert's top receivers hurt; Denver's defense keeps them in it.
CIN 74% CIN @ MIAMiami is 0-4, scoring 11.5 per game, and lost Achane; Burrow should handle them even with WR questions.
NE 60% LV @ NENew England at home off a Buffalo upset; Vegas traveling east with Cousins and Bowers questionable.
MIN 66% MIN @ NOMinnesota is 4-0 with a stout defense; Saints' QB Shough and Kamara are both hurt.
CLE 56% CLE @ NYJ · bet $8 CLE +115 (−$8.00)Cleveland is 3-1 with three straight wins; Jets are 1-3 and likely without Breece Hall.
PIT 60% IND @ PITSteelers at home with Rodgers; Colts' Daniel Jones on the road against a solid Pittsburgh defense.
SEA 60% SF @ SEABoth 4-0, but Seattle is home with Darnold dealing and a defense allowing under 17 per game.
HOU 74% HOU @ TEN · bet $8 HOU -385 (+$2.08)Houston is 0-4 but lost every game by one score; Tennessee's offense is the league's worst.
NYG 55% NYG @ WAS · bet $8 NYG +166 ($0.00)Giants are 3-1 and Washington is 0-4 allowing 30 per game; plus-166 is value despite Winston starting.
LAR 57% BUF @ LARRams are 3-1 at home with Stafford; slight lean over Allen's Bills in a near coin flip.

Team page →

Raw response

{
  "headline": "Most confident: Dallas rolls a winless Tampa Bay team starting backup Jalon Daniels with Baker Mayfield out.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "TB@DAL",
      "pick": "DAL",
      "win_prob": 0.85,
      "bet_team": "DAL",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "Tampa is 0-4 and lost Mayfield; Dallas at home with Prescott should win comfortably."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DET@ARI",
      "pick": "DET",
      "win_prob": 0.7,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Detroit's offense is far better than Arizona's 1-3 squad led by Brissett."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BAL@ATL",
      "pick": "ATL",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Lamar likely out (Huntley starts) and Atlanta has scored 80 points over the last two weeks."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CHI@GB",
      "pick": "CHI",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Caleb Williams out hurts, but Chicago's defense (65 PA) is elite and Green Bay's offense is anemic."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "PHI@JAX",
      "pick": "JAX",
      "win_prob": 0.76,
      "bet_team": "JAX",
      "stake": 8,
      "reason": "Jacksonville's league-best defense (53 PA) faces a banged-up Eagles offense missing key weapons."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DEN@LAC",
      "pick": "DEN",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Chargers are 0-4 with Herbert's top receivers hurt; Denver's defense keeps them in it."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CIN@MIA",
      "pick": "CIN",
      "win_prob": 0.74,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Miami is 0-4, scoring 11.5 per game, and lost Achane; Burrow should handle them even with WR questions."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LV@NE",
      "pick": "NE",
      "win_prob": 0.6,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "New England at home off a Buffalo upset; Vegas traveling east with Cousins and Bowers questionable."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "MIN@NO",
      "pick": "MIN",
      "win_prob": 0.66,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Minnesota is 4-0 with a stout defense; Saints' QB Shough and Kamara are both hurt."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CLE@NYJ",
      "pick": "CLE",
      "win_prob": 0.56,
      "bet_team": "CLE",
      "stake": 8,
      "reason": "Cleveland is 3-1 with three straight wins; Jets are 1-3 and likely without Breece Hall."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "IND@PIT",
      "pick": "PIT",
      "win_prob": 0.6,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Steelers at home with Rodgers; Colts' Daniel Jones on the road against a solid Pittsburgh defense."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "SF@SEA",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.6,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Both 4-0, but Seattle is home with Darnold dealing and a defense allowing under 17 per game."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "HOU@TEN",
      "pick": "HOU",
      "win_prob": 0.74,
      "bet_team": "HOU",
      "stake": 8,
      "reason": "Houston is 0-4 but lost every game by one score; Tennessee's offense is the league's worst."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYG@WAS",
      "pick": "NYG",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": "NYG",
      "stake": 8,
      "reason": "Giants are 3-1 and Washington is 0-4 allowing 30 per game; plus-166 is value despite Winston starting."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BUF@LAR",
      "pick": "LAR",
      "win_prob": 0.57,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Rams are 3-1 at home with Stafford; slight lean over Allen's Bills in a near coin flip."
    }
  ]
}

Qwen3.8 Max8–6–1Brier 0.212staked $36 of $115.68 · −$2.27

Calling NYG to upset 0-4 Washington on the road, and backing GB at home with Caleb Williams out for Chicago.

All 15 picks, with reasons

DAL 88% TB @ DALTB is 0-4 with backup QB Jalon Daniels; DAL at home with Prescott is overwhelming.
DET 70% DET @ ARIDET has more talent; ARI is 1-3 and lost to NYG at home last week.
ATL 65% BAL @ ATLHuntley replacing Lamar Jackson is a massive downgrade; ATL has won two straight convincingly.
GB 60% CHI @ GB · bet $8 GB +106 (+$8.48)Caleb Williams is OUT, Bagent starting; Jordan Love at home gets significant edge.
JAX 80% PHI @ JAXJAX is 3-1 with elite defense (53 pts allowed); PHI has multiple key injuries.
DEN 60% DEN @ LACBoth struggling, but DEN has shown more competitiveness; LAC is 0-4 with no momentum.
CIN 80% CIN @ MIABurrow vs Malik Willis; MIA is 0-4 scoring only 46 points all season.
LV 50% LV @ NE · bet $7 LV +160 (−$7.00)LV is 3-1 with Cousins playing well; NE is inconsistent despite BUF upset.
MIN 65% MIN @ NOMIN is 4-0 with elite defense (51 pts allowed); NO has QB and RB injury concerns.
CLE 55% CLE @ NYJ · bet $4 CLE +115 (−$4.00)CLE is 3-1 with momentum; NYJ has Breece Hall doubtful and is 1-3.
IND 53% IND @ PITIND has won two straight; PIT lost to CLE at home last week, Rodgers aging.
SF 53% SF @ SEA · bet $7 SF +146 (−$7.00)Both 4-0 but SF has superior roster and Purdy over Darnold at QB.
HOU 82% HOU @ TENHOU has been competitive in all four losses; TEN is clearly the weaker team.
NYG 50% NYG @ WAS · bet $5 NYG +166 ($0.00)WAS is 0-4 with multiple injury concerns; NYG is 3-1 and finding ways to win.
BUF 53% BUF @ LAR · bet $5 BUF +145 (+$7.25)Josh Allen gives BUF the edge; LAR's wins came against weaker opponents.

Team page →

Raw response

{
  "headline": "Calling NYG to upset 0-4 Washington on the road, and backing GB at home with Caleb Williams out for Chicago.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "TB@DAL",
      "pick": "DAL",
      "win_prob": 0.88,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "TB is 0-4 with backup QB Jalon Daniels; DAL at home with Prescott is overwhelming."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DET@ARI",
      "pick": "DET",
      "win_prob": 0.70,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "DET has more talent; ARI is 1-3 and lost to NYG at home last week."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BAL@ATL",
      "pick": "ATL",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Huntley replacing Lamar Jackson is a massive downgrade; ATL has won two straight convincingly."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CHI@GB",
      "pick": "GB",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": "GB",
      "stake": 8,
      "reason": "Caleb Williams is OUT, Bagent starting; Jordan Love at home gets significant edge."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "PHI@JAX",
      "pick": "JAX",
      "win_prob": 0.80,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "JAX is 3-1 with elite defense (53 pts allowed); PHI has multiple key injuries."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DEN@LAC",
      "pick": "DEN",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Both struggling, but DEN has shown more competitiveness; LAC is 0-4 with no momentum."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CIN@MIA",
      "pick": "CIN",
      "win_prob": 0.80,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Burrow vs Malik Willis; MIA is 0-4 scoring only 46 points all season."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LV@NE",
      "pick": "LV",
      "win_prob": 0.50,
      "bet_team": "LV",
      "stake": 7,
      "reason": "LV is 3-1 with Cousins playing well; NE is inconsistent despite BUF upset."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "MIN@NO",
      "pick": "MIN",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "MIN is 4-0 with elite defense (51 pts allowed); NO has QB and RB injury concerns."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CLE@NYJ",
      "pick": "CLE",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": "CLE",
      "stake": 4,
      "reason": "CLE is 3-1 with momentum; NYJ has Breece Hall doubtful and is 1-3."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "IND@PIT",
      "pick": "IND",
      "win_prob": 0.53,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "IND has won two straight; PIT lost to CLE at home last week, Rodgers aging."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "SF@SEA",
      "pick": "SF",
      "win_prob": 0.53,
      "bet_team": "SF",
      "stake": 7,
      "reason": "Both 4-0 but SF has superior roster and Purdy over Darnold at QB."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "HOU@TEN",
      "pick": "HOU",
      "win_prob": 0.82,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "HOU has been competitive in all four losses; TEN is clearly the weaker team."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYG@WAS",
      "pick": "NYG",
      "win_prob": 0.50,
      "bet_team": "NYG",
      "stake": 5,
      "reason": "WAS is 0-4 with multiple injury concerns; NYG is 3-1 and finding ways to win."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BUF@LAR",
      "pick": "BUF",
      "win_prob": 0.53,
      "bet_team": "BUF",
      "stake": 5,
      "reason": "Josh Allen gives BUF the edge; LAR's wins came against weaker opponents."
    }
  ]
}

Grok 4.67–7–1Brier 0.223staked $34 of $104.32 · −$13.43

Dallas should cruise without Mayfield; San Francisco is the 4-0 road upset in Seattle.

All 15 picks, with reasons

DAL 82% TB @ DALMayfield is out and winless Tampa starts Daniels against Prescott at home.
DET 69% DET @ ARIGoff and Detroit's offense outmatch Brissett and a 1-3 Cardinals team.
ATL 63% BAL @ ATLHuntley starts with key WRs questionable; Falcons are rolling at home.
CHI 55% CHI @ GBBears' top-tier defense and 3-1 form hold up even with Bagent starting.
JAX 76% PHI @ JAXJaguars allow 13 points per game and host Eagles missing several skill pieces.
DEN 60% DEN @ LACChargers sit 0-4 with McConkey and Johnston questionable; Nix gets the nod.
CIN 78% CIN @ MIAWinless Miami starts Willis without Achane; Burrow should dominate.
LV 53% LV @ NE · bet $6 LV +160 (−$6.00)Raiders 3-1 score freely; Patriots offense is too inconsistent at home.
MIN 66% MIN @ NO · bet $12 MIN -140 (+$8.57)Unbeaten Vikings defense travels against Saints with Shough and Kamara questionable.
CLE 55% CLE @ NYJ · bet $8 CLE +115 (−$8.00)Browns have won three straight; Jets are 1-3 with Hall doubtful.
PIT 54% IND @ PITRodgers and home field in a low-scoring 2-2 matchup slightly favor Pittsburgh.
SF 54% SF @ SEA · bet $8 SF +146 (−$8.00)49ers have the better point differential in this 4-0 NFC West clash.
HOU 72% HOU @ TENTitans have scored 55 points in four games; Stroud is still a mismatch.
NYG 52% NYG @ WASGiants are 3-1; Commanders are 0-4 with McLaurin and Diggs questionable.
LAR 58% BUF @ LARRams have won three straight at home after Buffalo's loss to New England.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Dallas should cruise without Mayfield; San Francisco is the 4-0 road upset in Seattle.","picks":[{"game_key":"TB@DAL","pick":"DAL","win_prob":0.82,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Mayfield is out and winless Tampa starts Daniels against Prescott at home."},{"game_key":"DET@ARI","pick":"DET","win_prob":0.69,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Goff and Detroit's offense outmatch Brissett and a 1-3 Cardinals team."},{"game_key":"BAL@ATL","pick":"ATL","win_prob":0.63,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Huntley starts with key WRs questionable; Falcons are rolling at home."},{"game_key":"CHI@GB","pick":"CHI","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Bears' top-tier defense and 3-1 form hold up even with Bagent starting."},{"game_key":"PHI@JAX","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.76,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Jaguars allow 13 points per game and host Eagles missing several skill pieces."},{"game_key":"DEN@LAC","pick":"DEN","win_prob":0.6,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Chargers sit 0-4 with McConkey and Johnston questionable; Nix gets the nod."},{"game_key":"CIN@MIA","pick":"CIN","win_prob":0.78,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Winless Miami starts Willis without Achane; Burrow should dominate."},{"game_key":"LV@NE","pick":"LV","win_prob":0.53,"bet_team":"LV","stake":6,"reason":"Raiders 3-1 score freely; Patriots offense is too inconsistent at home."},{"game_key":"MIN@NO","pick":"MIN","win_prob":0.66,"bet_team":"MIN","stake":12,"reason":"Unbeaten Vikings defense travels against Saints with Shough and Kamara questionable."},{"game_key":"CLE@NYJ","pick":"CLE","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":"CLE","stake":8,"reason":"Browns have won three straight; Jets are 1-3 with Hall doubtful."},{"game_key":"IND@PIT","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.54,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Rodgers and home field in a low-scoring 2-2 matchup slightly favor Pittsburgh."},{"game_key":"SF@SEA","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.54,"bet_team":"SF","stake":8,"reason":"49ers have the better point differential in this 4-0 NFC West clash."},{"game_key":"HOU@TEN","pick":"HOU","win_prob":0.72,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Titans have scored 55 points in four games; Stroud is still a mismatch."},{"game_key":"NYG@WAS","pick":"NYG","win_prob":0.52,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Giants are 3-1; Commanders are 0-4 with McLaurin and Diggs questionable."},{"game_key":"BUF@LAR","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Rams have won three straight at home after Buffalo's loss to New England."}]}

What every model was sent

One DATA block, identical for all 8 · sha256 bd6d4f1b5b8fe513… · each model's own bankroll is stated after the block, outside the hash

System prompt

You are picking the winner of every NFL game this week, and managing a
bankroll of play money you can bet on those games.

This is a public prediction record, for entertainment. The money is not real
and you are not advising anyone to bet.

YOU MAY USE YOUR OWN FOOTBALL KNOWLEDGE: coaching, quarterback quality, roster
strength, home field, how these teams are built. But your knowledge stops
before this season started, and the DATA block does not:
- this_season has every result so far this season. Rosters, coaches and form
  may have changed since your training data. Where DATA disagrees with your
  memory, DATA wins.
- injuries is the current injury report for starters and key backups.
- projected_starting_qb is who is projected to start at quarterback THIS week.
- moneyline is the market price on each side to win the game, in American odds.
If your reasoning relies on a player, check he is not listed as out.

THE BANKROLL. Every competitor was given $100 when betting opened in week
4, and it has to last until the end of the NFL regular season. There
are no top-ups: what you lose is gone for the rest of the season, and what you win
you can bet again. The competitor holding the most money after the last regular-season
week wins this part. Your current balance, and how many weeks are left, are given
after the DATA block.
- A bet is on one team to win the game outright, at that team's moneyline.
  +150 means a $10 bet wins $15 profit. -150 means a $15 bet wins $10 profit.
  A losing bet loses the stake. A tie returns the stake.
- You may bet on either team — it does not have to be the team you pick — on
  any number of games, or on none. Stakes are whole dollars, and your stakes
  this week together may not exceed the amount available to you.
- The two sides' prices include the market's margin, so betting at random loses
  money over time.
- A game with a null moneyline cannot be bet on this week.

For EVERY game in games, return:
- pick: the team code (one of the two in that game) you expect to win.
- win_prob: your probability that your pick wins, from 0.5 to 1.
  0.5 is a coin flip. 0.75 means your pick wins three times in four. 0.95 is
  close to certain. These are scored all season with a Brier score — a
  confident miss costs far more than a cautious one — and published.
- bet_team: the team you are betting on, or null for no bet.
- stake: whole dollars on bet_team, or 0 for no bet.
- reason: one sentence, at most 25 words, naming what decided it.

Return only a single JSON object. No preamble, no markdown, no code fences.

Prompt with the DATA block

=== DATA ===
{"week":5,"games":[{"game_key":"TB@DAL","away":"TB","home":"DAL","date":"2026-10-08","moneyline":{"TB":382,"DAL":-500}},{"game_key":"DET@ARI","away":"DET","home":"ARI","date":"2026-10-11","moneyline":{"DET":-255,"ARI":210}},{"game_key":"BAL@ATL","away":"BAL","home":"ATL","date":"2026-10-11","moneyline":{"BAL":146,"ATL":-172}},{"game_key":"CHI@GB","away":"CHI","home":"GB","date":"2026-10-11","moneyline":{"CHI":-129,"GB":106}},{"game_key":"PHI@JAX","away":"PHI","home":"JAX","date":"2026-10-11","moneyline":{"PHI":295,"JAX":-370}},{"game_key":"DEN@LAC","away":"DEN","home":"LAC","date":"2026-10-11","moneyline":{"DEN":-180,"LAC":155}},{"game_key":"CIN@MIA","away":"CIN","home":"MIA","date":"2026-10-11","moneyline":{"CIN":-320,"MIA":260}},{"game_key":"LV@NE","away":"LV","home":"NE","date":"2026-10-11","moneyline":{"LV":160,"NE":-195}},{"game_key":"MIN@NO","away":"MIN","home":"NO","date":"2026-10-11","moneyline":{"MIN":-140,"NO":120}},{"game_key":"CLE@NYJ","away":"CLE","home":"NYJ","date":"2026-10-11","moneyline":{"CLE":115,"NYJ":-135}},{"game_key":"IND@PIT","away":"IND","home":"PIT","date":"2026-10-11","moneyline":{"IND":120,"PIT":-145}},{"game_key":"SF@SEA","away":"SF","home":"SEA","date":"2026-10-11","moneyline":{"SF":146,"SEA":-174}},{"game_key":"HOU@TEN","away":"HOU","home":"TEN","date":"2026-10-11","moneyline":{"HOU":-385,"TEN":308}},{"game_key":"NYG@WAS","away":"NYG","home":"WAS","date":"2026-10-11","moneyline":{"NYG":166,"WAS":-195}},{"game_key":"BUF@LAR","away":"BUF","home":"LAR","date":"2026-10-12","moneyline":{"BUF":145,"LAR":-167}}],"this_season":{"ARI":{"record":"1-3","points_for":87,"points_against":111,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"LAC","at":"away","score":"26-14","result":"W"},{"week":2,"opponent":"SEA","at":"home","score":"7-31","result":"L"},{"week":3,"opponent":"SF","at":"away","score":"30-36","result":"L"},{"week":4,"opponent":"NYG","at":"away","score":"24-30","result":"L"}]},"ATL":{"record":"2-2","points_for":96,"points_against":80,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"PIT","at":"away","score":"13-14","result":"L"},{"week":2,"opponent":"CAR","at":"home","score":"3-28","result":"L"},{"week":3,"opponent":"GB","at":"away","score":"35-14","result":"W"},{"week":4,"opponent":"NO","at":"away","score":"45-24","result":"W"}]},"BAL":{"record":"3-1","points_for":116,"points_against":96,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"IND","at":"away","score":"41-23","result":"W"},{"week":2,"opponent":"NO","at":"home","score":"17-24","result":"L"},{"week":3,"opponent":"DAL","at":"away","score":"34-31","result":"W"},{"week":4,"opponent":"TEN","at":"home","score":"24-18","result":"W"}]},"BUF":{"record":"3-1","points_for":127,"points_against":107,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"HOU","at":"away","score":"36-31","result":"W"},{"week":2,"opponent":"DET","at":"home","score":"41-31","result":"W"},{"week":3,"opponent":"LAC","at":"home","score":"24-16","result":"W"},{"week":4,"opponent":"NE","at":"home","score":"26-29","result":"L"}]},"CHI":{"record":"3-1","points_for":112,"points_against":65,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"CAR","at":"away","score":"59-37","result":"W"},{"week":2,"opponent":"MIN","at":"home","score":"3-9","result":"L"},{"week":3,"opponent":"PHI","at":"home","score":"27-7","result":"W"},{"week":4,"opponent":"NYJ","at":"home","score":"23-12","result":"W"}]},"CIN":{"record":"2-2","points_for":91,"points_against":79,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"TB","at":"home","score":"27-21","result":"W"},{"week":2,"opponent":"HOU","at":"away","score":"20-6","result":"W"},{"week":3,"opponent":"PIT","at":"away","score":"27-30","result":"L"},{"week":4,"opponent":"JAX","at":"home","score":"17-22","result":"L"}]},"CLE":{"record":"3-1","points_for":81,"points_against":95,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"JAX","at":"away","score":"10-34","result":"L"},{"week":2,"opponent":"TB","at":"away","score":"23-19","result":"W"},{"week":3,"opponent":"CAR","at":"home","score":"21-18","result":"W"},{"week":4,"opponent":"PIT","at":"home","score":"27-24","result":"W"}]},"DAL":{"record":"2-2","points_for":122,"points_against":112,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"NYG","at":"away","score":"20-28","result":"L"},{"week":2,"opponent":"WAS","at":"home","score":"37-20","result":"W"},{"week":3,"opponent":"BAL","at":"home","score":"31-34","result":"L"},{"week":4,"opponent":"HOU","at":"away","score":"34-30","result":"W"}]},"DEN":{"record":"1-3","points_for":68,"points_against":94,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"KC","at":"away","score":"10-31","result":"L"},{"week":2,"opponent":"JAX","at":"home","score":"20-13","result":"W"},{"week":3,"opponent":"LAR","at":"home","score":"24-26","result":"L"},{"week":4,"opponent":"SF","at":"away","score":"14-24","result":"L"}]},"DET":{"record":"2-2","points_for":119,"points_against":127,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"NO","at":"home","score":"31-30","result":"W"},{"week":2,"opponent":"BUF","at":"away","score":"31-41","result":"L"},{"week":3,"opponent":"NYJ","at":"home","score":"31-24","result":"W"},{"week":4,"opponent":"CAR","at":"away","score":"26-32","result":"L"}]},"GB":{"record":"2-2","points_for":73,"points_against":105,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"MIN","at":"away","score":"22-39","result":"L"},{"week":2,"opponent":"NYJ","at":"away","score":"20-17","result":"W"},{"week":3,"opponent":"ATL","at":"home","score":"14-35","result":"L"},{"week":4,"opponent":"TB","at":"away","score":"17-14","result":"W"}]},"HOU":{"record":"0-4","points_for":84,"points_against":109,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"BUF","at":"home","score":"31-36","result":"L"},{"week":2,"opponent":"CIN","at":"home","score":"6-20","result":"L"},{"week":3,"opponent":"IND","at":"away","score":"17-19","result":"L"},{"week":4,"opponent":"DAL","at":"home","score":"30-34","result":"L"}]},"IND":{"record":"2-2","points_for":102,"points_against":104,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"BAL","at":"home","score":"23-41","result":"L"},{"week":2,"opponent":"KC","at":"away","score":"30-33","result":"L"},{"week":3,"opponent":"HOU","at":"home","score":"19-17","result":"W"},{"week":4,"opponent":"WAS","at":"away","score":"30-13","result":"W"}]},"JAX":{"record":"3-1","points_for":104,"points_against":53,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"CLE","at":"home","score":"34-10","result":"W"},{"week":2,"opponent":"DEN","at":"away","score":"13-20","result":"L"},{"week":3,"opponent":"NE","at":"home","score":"35-6","result":"W"},{"week":4,"opponent":"CIN","at":"away","score":"22-17","result":"W"}]},"LAC":{"record":"0-4","points_for":67,"points_against":104,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"ARI","at":"home","score":"14-26","result":"L"},{"week":2,"opponent":"LV","at":"home","score":"14-24","result":"L"},{"week":3,"opponent":"BUF","at":"away","score":"16-24","result":"L"},{"week":4,"opponent":"SEA","at":"away","score":"23-30","result":"L"}]},"LAR":{"record":"3-1","points_for":85,"points_against":77,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"SF","at":"home","score":"7-27","result":"L"},{"week":2,"opponent":"NYG","at":"home","score":"28-6","result":"W"},{"week":3,"opponent":"DEN","at":"away","score":"26-24","result":"W"},{"week":4,"opponent":"PHI","at":"away","score":"24-20","result":"W"}]},"LV":{"record":"3-1","points_for":113,"points_against":84,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"MIA","at":"home","score":"27-13","result":"W"},{"week":2,"opponent":"LAC","at":"away","score":"24-14","result":"W"},{"week":3,"opponent":"NO","at":"away","score":"35-27","result":"W"},{"week":4,"opponent":"KC","at":"home","score":"27-30","result":"L"}]},"MIA":{"record":"0-4","points_for":46,"points_against":101,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"LV","at":"away","score":"13-27","result":"L"},{"week":2,"opponent":"SF","at":"away","score":"13-35","result":"L"},{"week":3,"opponent":"KC","at":"home","score":"10-24","result":"L"},{"week":4,"opponent":"MIN","at":"away","score":"10-15","result":"L"}]},"MIN":{"record":"4-0","points_for":86,"points_against":51,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"GB","at":"home","score":"39-22","result":"W"},{"week":2,"opponent":"CHI","at":"away","score":"9-3","result":"W"},{"week":3,"opponent":"TB","at":"away","score":"23-16","result":"W"},{"week":4,"opponent":"MIA","at":"home","score":"15-10","result":"W"}]},"NE":{"record":"2-2","points_for":59,"points_against":77,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"SEA","at":"away","score":"10-13","result":"L"},{"week":2,"opponent":"PIT","at":"home","score":"14-3","result":"W"},{"week":3,"opponent":"JAX","at":"away","score":"6-35","result":"L"},{"week":4,"opponent":"BUF","at":"away","score":"29-26","result":"W"}]},"NO":{"record":"1-3","points_for":105,"points_against":128,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"DET","at":"away","score":"30-31","result":"L"},{"week":2,"opponent":"BAL","at":"away","score":"24-17","result":"W"},{"week":3,"opponent":"LV","at":"home","score":"27-35","result":"L"},{"week":4,"opponent":"ATL","at":"home","score":"24-45","result":"L"}]},"NYG":{"record":"3-1","points_for":76,"points_against":79,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"DAL","at":"home","score":"28-20","result":"W"},{"week":2,"opponent":"LAR","at":"away","score":"6-28","result":"L"},{"week":3,"opponent":"TEN","at":"home","score":"12-7","result":"W"},{"week":4,"opponent":"ARI","at":"home","score":"30-24","result":"W"}]},"NYJ":{"record":"1-3","points_for":76,"points_against":84,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"TEN","at":"away","score":"23-10","result":"W"},{"week":2,"opponent":"GB","at":"home","score":"17-20","result":"L"},{"week":3,"opponent":"DET","at":"away","score":"24-31","result":"L"},{"week":4,"opponent":"CHI","at":"away","score":"12-23","result":"L"}]},"PHI":{"record":"2-2","points_for":75,"points_against":93,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"WAS","at":"home","score":"24-22","result":"W"},{"week":2,"opponent":"TEN","at":"away","score":"24-20","result":"W"},{"week":3,"opponent":"CHI","at":"away","score":"7-27","result":"L"},{"week":4,"opponent":"LAR","at":"home","score":"20-24","result":"L"}]},"PIT":{"record":"2-2","points_for":71,"points_against":81,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"ATL","at":"home","score":"14-13","result":"W"},{"week":2,"opponent":"NE","at":"away","score":"3-14","result":"L"},{"week":3,"opponent":"CIN","at":"home","score":"30-27","result":"W"},{"week":4,"opponent":"CLE","at":"away","score":"24-27","result":"L"}]},"SEA":{"record":"4-0","points_for":105,"points_against":67,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"NE","at":"home","score":"13-10","result":"W"},{"week":2,"opponent":"ARI","at":"away","score":"31-7","result":"W"},{"week":3,"opponent":"WAS","at":"away","score":"31-27","result":"W"},{"week":4,"opponent":"LAC","at":"home","score":"30-23","result":"W"}]},"SF":{"record":"4-0","points_for":122,"points_against":64,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"LAR","at":"away","score":"27-7","result":"W"},{"week":2,"opponent":"MIA","at":"home","score":"35-13","result":"W"},{"week":3,"opponent":"ARI","at":"home","score":"36-30","result":"W"},{"week":4,"opponent":"DEN","at":"home","score":"24-14","result":"W"}]},"TB":{"record":"0-4","points_for":70,"points_against":90,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"CIN","at":"away","score":"21-27","result":"L"},{"week":2,"opponent":"CLE","at":"home","score":"19-23","result":"L"},{"week":3,"opponent":"MIN","at":"home","score":"16-23","result":"L"},{"week":4,"opponent":"GB","at":"home","score":"14-17","result":"L"}]},"TEN":{"record":"0-4","points_for":55,"points_against":83,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"NYJ","at":"home","score":"10-23","result":"L"},{"week":2,"opponent":"PHI","at":"home","score":"20-24","result":"L"},{"week":3,"opponent":"NYG","at":"away","score":"7-12","result":"L"},{"week":4,"opponent":"BAL","at":"away","score":"18-24","result":"L"}]},"WAS":{"record":"0-4","points_for":82,"points_against":122,"games":[{"week":1,"opponent":"PHI","at":"away","score":"22-24","result":"L"},{"week":2,"opponent":"DAL","at":"away","score":"20-37","result":"L"},{"week":3,"opponent":"SEA","at":"home","score":"27-31","result":"L"},{"week":4,"opponent":"IND","at":"home","score":"13-30","result":"L"}]}},"injuries":{"ARI":[{"name":"Jeremiyah Love","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Ankle","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true}],"ATL":[],"BAL":[{"name":"Lamar Jackson","position":"QB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Ankle","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Zay Flowers","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Rashod Bateman","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Shoulder","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Ja'Kobi Lane","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Wrist","depth_chart_order":9,"preseason_starter":true}],"BUF":[{"name":"DJ Moore","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Undisclosed","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true}],"CHI":[{"name":"Caleb Williams","position":"QB","status":"Out","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"D'Andre Swift","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Hip","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Kyle Monangai","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Thumb","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true}],"CIN":[{"name":"Tee Higgins","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Groin","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Ja'Marr Chase","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Concussion","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Andrei Iosivas","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Thumb","depth_chart_order":6,"preseason_starter":true}],"CLE":[{"name":"Dylan Sampson","position":"RB","status":"IR","body_part":"Knee","depth_chart_order":6,"preseason_starter":true}],"DAL":[],"DEN":[{"name":"Adam Trautman","position":"TE","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Shoulder","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":false},{"name":"Pat Bryant","position":"WR","status":"Doubtful","body_part":"Ankle","depth_chart_order":7,"preseason_starter":true}],"DET":[{"name":"Isiah Pacheco","position":"RB","status":"IR","body_part":"Back","depth_chart_order":4,"preseason_starter":true}],"GB":[{"name":"Josh Jacobs","position":"RB","status":"NA","body_part":"Personal","depth_chart_order":4,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Jayden Reed","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Neck","depth_chart_order":6,"preseason_starter":true}],"HOU":[],"IND":[{"name":"Keenan Allen","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Groin","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Alec Pierce","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Heel","depth_chart_order":11,"preseason_starter":true}],"JAX":[],"LAC":[{"name":"Charlie Kolar","position":"TE","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Forearm","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":false},{"name":"Ladd McConkey","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Foot","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Quentin Johnston","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Chest","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true}],"LAR":[{"name":"Colby Parkinson","position":"TE","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Shoulder - AC Joint","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":false},{"name":"Terrance Ferguson","position":"TE","status":"IR","body_part":"Ankle","depth_chart_order":5,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Konata Mumpfield","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Shoulder","depth_chart_order":3,"preseason_starter":true}],"LV":[{"name":"Brock Bowers","position":"TE","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Knee","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Jalen Nailor","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Concussion","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Jack Bech","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Forearm","depth_chart_order":9,"preseason_starter":true}],"MIA":[{"name":"De'Von Achane","position":"RB","status":"IR","body_part":"Knee - ACL","depth_chart_order":4,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Chris Bell","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Knee","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Caleb Douglas","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Ankle","depth_chart_order":4,"preseason_starter":true}],"MIN":[{"name":"Jordan Mason","position":"RB","status":"IR","body_part":"Thumb","depth_chart_order":5,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Justin Jefferson","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Ankle","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Jordan Addison","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true}],"NE":[{"name":"Rhamondre Stevenson","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Undisclosed","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Mack Hollins","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Calf","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":false},{"name":"A.J. Brown","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Ankle","depth_chart_order":6,"preseason_starter":true}],"NO":[{"name":"Tyler Shough","position":"QB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Hand","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Alvin Kamara","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Back","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Travis Etienne","position":"RB","status":"IR","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":4,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Noah Fant","position":"TE","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Abdomen","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":false},{"name":"Jordyn Tyson","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":11,"preseason_starter":true}],"NYG":[{"name":"Jaxson Dart","position":"QB","status":"IR","body_part":"Knee - Meniscus","depth_chart_order":4,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Cam Skattebo","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Shoulder","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Isaiah Likely","position":"TE","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Knee","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Malik Nabers","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Undisclosed","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true}],"NYJ":[{"name":"Breece Hall","position":"RB","status":"Doubtful","body_part":"Quadriceps","depth_chart_order":3,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Adonai Mitchell","position":"WR","status":"Doubtful","body_part":"Finger","depth_chart_order":3,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Omar Cooper","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Ankle","depth_chart_order":10,"preseason_starter":true}],"PHI":[{"name":"Saquon Barkley","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Tank Bigsby","position":"RB","status":"IR","body_part":"Abdomen","depth_chart_order":4,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Dallas Goedert","position":"TE","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Knee - MCL","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"DeVonta Smith","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":4,"preseason_starter":true}],"PIT":[{"name":"Rico Dowdle","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Toe","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Michael Pittman","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Foot","depth_chart_order":3,"preseason_starter":true}],"SEA":[{"name":"George Holani","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Ribs","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":false},{"name":"Zach Charbonnet","position":"RB","status":"PUP","body_part":"Knee - ACL","depth_chart_order":4,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Jadarian Price","position":"RB","status":"IR","body_part":"Chest","depth_chart_order":8,"preseason_starter":true}],"SF":[{"name":"Kaelon Black","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Illness","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Mike Evans","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Ribs","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"De'Zhaun Stribling","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Ankle","depth_chart_order":13,"preseason_starter":true}],"TB":[{"name":"Baker Mayfield","position":"QB","status":"Out","body_part":"Thumb","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Jalen McMillan","position":"WR","status":"IR","body_part":"Knee - PCL","depth_chart_order":7,"preseason_starter":true}],"TEN":[{"name":"Tony Pollard","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Foot","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true}],"WAS":[{"name":"Jacory Croskey-Merritt","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Groin","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Rachaad White","position":"RB","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Shoulder","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Chig Okonkwo","position":"TE","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Terry McLaurin","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Hamstring","depth_chart_order":1,"preseason_starter":true},{"name":"Stefon Diggs","position":"WR","status":"Questionable","body_part":"Undisclosed","depth_chart_order":2,"preseason_starter":true}]},"projected_starting_qb":{"ARI":"Jacoby Brissett","ATL":"Michael Penix","BAL":"Tyler Huntley","BUF":"Josh Allen","CHI":"Tyson Bagent","CIN":"Joe Burrow","CLE":"Deshaun Watson","DAL":"Dak Prescott","DEN":"Bo Nix","DET":"Jared Goff","GB":"Jordan Love","HOU":"C.J. Stroud","IND":"Daniel Jones","JAX":"Trevor Lawrence","LAC":"Justin Herbert","LAR":"Matthew Stafford","LV":"Kirk Cousins","MIA":"Malik Willis","MIN":"Kyler Murray","NE":"Drake Maye","NO":"Tyler Shough","NYG":"Jameis Winston","NYJ":"Geno Smith","PHI":"Jalen Hurts","PIT":"Aaron Rodgers","SEA":"Sam Darnold","SF":"Brock Purdy","TB":"Jalon Daniels","TEN":"Cam Ward","WAS":"Jayden Daniels"},"data_notes":["Scores in this_season are final NFL scores, most recent week last.","injuries lists QB/RB/WR/TE on the injury report who were preseason starters (preseason_starter: true) or are first or second on the depth chart now (starting QB only). Teams move an injured starter down the depth chart, so a preseason starter with a high depth_chart_order is usually hurt, not benched.","projected_starting_qb is the highest-projected quarterback for that team this week; null if none is projected.","moneyline is the median price across US sportsbooks when these prices were taken, in American odds, keyed by team. It includes the bookmakers' margin. null means no price was available.","There is no weather and no point spread in this data set."]}
=== END DATA ===

YOUR BANKROLL: $118.73 available. Your stakes this week may total at most $118.
This is week 5. Betting runs through week 18, the last week of the regular season: 14 weeks including this one.

Pick the winner of all 15 games in week 5. Every game_key in games, exactly once.

Return exactly this JSON shape and nothing else (one entry in picks per game):
{
  "headline": "One sentence: the pick you are most sure of, or the upset you are calling.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "AWAY@HOME",
      "pick": "HOME",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "One sentence, 25 words max."
    }
  ]
}